ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Wall Street Journal evaluates the U.S. CPI data and points out that although inflation data is stabilizing, it still seems possible for Federal Reserve policymakers to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their last meeting of the year next month. This is primarily because, despite the bumps along the way, inflation still appears to be on a cooling trend.Additionally, there remains a certain degree of "catch-up inflation" in the data. Federal Reserve officials also believe that the current short-term interest rate levels are restrictive, which means that without further rate cuts, the labor market may cool more than they expect, even putting the economy at risk of recession.That said, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the next consumer inflation report on December 11, one week ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. If the data is much stronger than what Federal Reserve officials hope for, they may choose to temporarily pause further rate cuts. This is especially true if the November employment report, scheduled for release on December 6, shows a rebound in employment, confirming that last month's slowdown was merely a reflection of hurricane and strike-related issues.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the next meeting have decreased, while the inflation and employment data scheduled for release next week may still change those expectations.According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates has dropped from nearly 20% earlier this month to 2%. Most are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points. The September PCE data will be released next Thursday, and the October employment data will be released next Friday. Price data shows that inflation is persistent but not overheating. Employment data may be affected by one-time impacts from hurricanes and strikes.

ChainCatcher news, despite the U.S. inflation rate dropping to its lowest level in three years, the financial markets have yet to react even as investors hope for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Particularly in the crypto market, there has been virtually no impact from this news, with Bitcoin and others quickly recovering their upward momentum after a brief decline. The cryptocurrency market's muted response to the inflation report is partly due to growing investor interest in the bond market, as well as the brewing storm of the U.S. presidential election.Harris's strong performance in the recent debate has reignited hopes for the Democrats to win the White House, which is seen as a possible harbinger of dovish monetary policy. Conversely, if Trump wins re-election, it could increase government spending and subsequently put upward pressure on interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields have been directly impacted by this shift in investor sentiment, and this sudden change in market mood indicates a significant shift in investor attitudes, exacerbating pessimism about the economy and the general expectation of lower borrowing costs.Market observers note that caution remains the prevailing sentiment in the market. Investors are exercising restraint, choosing to wait for clearer signals before rebalancing their portfolios. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, after the release of the U.S. CPI data, traders have lowered their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Rate traders have reduced their bets on a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's September meeting, now expecting a cut of about 33 basis points, down from yesterday's expectation of 37 basis points.Analyst Chris Anstey noted that it is worth mentioning that the U.S. July CPI inflation rate has now fallen below 3%, the lowest level since inflation first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility has been modest. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is currently up over 4 basis points, indicating that some are disappointed that the inflation data has not become more subdued.

ChainCatcher message, Matrixport released a weekly report stating that the U.S. will release inflation data next week, and Bitcoin may see a recovery. Currently, Bitcoin is in an oversold state, which historically has often been accompanied by a rebound. If inflation drops below 3%, the market may respond positively.Risk assets are still significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, especially concerns about economic growth and the job market. Trading volume and liquidity in August are expected to decline, which may lead to lower returns. The 18% drop on Monday confirmed the market's weak expectations.Last week, Circle stablecoin saw outflows, while this week’s inflows may indicate bottom-fishing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 30%, which may provide a buying opportunity, similar to the situation in June 2024. In a Bitcoin bull market, although consolidation may occur, an RSI below 30% is relatively rare.

ChainCatcher news, DWS economist Ulrike Kastens stated in a report that the inflation data from the Eurozone indicates that the European Central Bank's 2% inflation target is unlikely to be achieved soon. She noted that high wages in the service sector suggest that prices will continue to rise, and inflation rates will continue to fluctuate in the coming months. However, this is unlikely to change the European Central Bank's future monetary policy, especially considering that the weakness of the European economy will exceed the European Central Bank's expectations. She expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates again in September. As long as there is a possibility of reaching the inflation target in the medium term, the European Central Bank should remain prepared to further adjust its monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times before the end of the year, due to recent improvements in inflation data.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research published that traders are complaining that despite Bitcoin's price being only 7% away from its all-time high, there has been no significant movement. Many Bitcoins are being withdrawn from trading platforms, while stablecoin impulse is sending out a warning signal.The trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has dropped to $50 billion, and the financing rates are only slightly positive. There is no doubt that the rates are very low. The Federal Reserve's policies and inflation data are seen as two key variables that could drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high. On June 5, the Bank of Canada may initiate a global rate-cutting cycle, providing a blueprint for the Federal Reserve, while the U.S. inflation data on June 12 needs to show lower figures (3.3%) to drive Bitcoin prices up.The sharp decline in Bitcoin balances on trading platforms indicates that whales are transferring Bitcoin off exchanges in anticipation of price increases. In the past month, 88,000 Bitcoins have been moved off trading platforms, leaving a remaining supply of 2.5 million Bitcoins, the lowest level since March 2018. The outflow of funds from trading platforms began on May 15, coinciding with the 45 days after the quarterly 13F filing requirements for U.S. registered investors managing over $100 million.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that Federal Reserve officials concluded in their recent meeting that they need to keep interest rates at current levels for a longer time than previously expected.Last month, U.S. inflation data disappointed for the third consecutive month. According to the latest meeting minutes, although officials still believe that rates are high enough to suppress economic activity and reduce inflation, they hinted that they are less certain about the degree of policy restrictiveness. An unspecified number of officials mentioned that if inflation risks make tightening policy reasonable, they would be willing to tighten policy further. In the second half of last year, price pressures noticeably eased, and Fed officials hinted in March that if there were one or two more months of moderate inflation, they might be ready to start cutting rates.However, a series of data from the first quarter shows that price pressures in the economy are heating up, and unless the labor market unexpectedly weakens, the Fed has been forced to shelve any considerations of starting to cut rates in the coming months.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Governor Waller had a busy day on Tuesday. Before the market opened, he expressed skepticism about a rate cut in July, stating that he needs to see "a few months of good inflation data" before considering a rate cut. This is not good news for those still hoping for a rate cut in July.Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and his team wrote: "There are only two months of inflation data from now until the July meeting, and the threshold of a few months of data indicates that the bar for a rate cut based solely on inflation is quite high."However, analysts have not changed their fundamental view that the first rate cut will occur in July, with a total of two rate cuts in 2024. They wrote: "First, Waller's view may not represent the entire FOMC. Additionally, the labor market data has already slowed in recent months, and further softening in the coming months, coupled with a moderate improvement in inflation data, should persuade the FOMC to begin normalizing policy earlier than Waller's timeline."

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that he believes further rate hikes may not be necessary and that "a few more months" of good inflation data are needed before considering rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams expressed welcome towards the weakening consumer inflation data, but these positive messages are not enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term. It is important not to overemphasize the latest economic news, but the slowdown in inflation in April "is a positive development following disappointing data in previous months." The "overall trend of easing inflationary pressures looks quite good." However, he remains uncertain whether price pressures will continue to converge towards the 2% target before lowering interest rates.Williams also stated that there is no need to tighten monetary policy at this time, which curtails speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation down to the desired level.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a new report indicating that Bitcoin may experience a larger pullback.Matrixport stated that since BTC reached an all-time high on March 5, it has attempted to break through three times, all of which ended in failure. The first and third attempts failed due to inflation data being higher than expected. The second attempt also failed as U.S. bond yields rose due to stronger-than-expected manufacturing data, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations.They believe there is ample evidence that Bitcoin is primarily traded based on macroeconomic data, and unless the macro data becomes more favorable, such as a decrease in inflation or weak growth, Bitcoin may struggle.