ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury investors are beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve's policy focus will shift from curbing inflation to addressing the slowdown in economic growth. Under this expectation, U.S. Treasuries have risen for six consecutive trading days, with yields falling to their lowest level of the year.Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that if the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy shift slightly, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could potentially fall below 4%. Currently, traders have resumed expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year (each by 25 basis points) and anticipate further cuts next year to around 3.65%. The bank believes that if market expectations for rates drop to 3.25%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could fall below 4%.Recently, U.S. Treasury auctions have performed strongly, with Wednesday's auction of $44 billion in seven-year Treasuries yielding 4.194%, lower than the pre-auction market close of 4.203%, indicating demand exceeded expectations. Analysts point out that investors see reasons for rate cuts not only from economic growth indicators but also from U.S. fiscal and immigration policies, including Trump's threats to impose tariffs on major trading partners.So far this year, U.S. Treasuries have risen 2.3%, surpassing the S&P 500 index's increase of 1.3%. The personal consumption expenditures price index for January, to be released on Friday, may become a key data point influencing market expectations.

ChainCatcher news, Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown stated in a report that from the perspective of the Federal Reserve's policy, it is hard to imagine that the U.S. employment report will be a game changer.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that policymakers need to see real progress on inflation or some degree of weakness in the labor market before considering another rate cut. For the market, the employment report may be a situation where "good news is good news" or vice versa. The market is focused on the potential economic situation rather than any potential policy implications.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research analysis suggests that Bitcoin may face supply tightening, although the market still lacks key market structure data support. They point out that there are several positive signals in the current market, including on-chain data, seasonal trends, breakout indicators, the Chinese New Year effect, a neutral Federal Reserve policy, and a crypto-friendly president. However, these factors have not yet resonated with the market structure.Additionally, 10x Research also mentioned that it has become increasingly difficult to achieve stable returns through altcoins in the current bull market. Only during the period from the U.S. elections on November 5 to the employment report on December 6/9 did altcoins perform strongly, while the subsequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve in mid-December put pressure on the market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, Bitcoin is facing downward pressure in the short term due to macroeconomic changes and market sentiment. Despite breaking through the historical high of $108,000 last December, Bitcoin is currently retracing due to a stronger dollar, increased volatility, and cautious trader attitudes. Joe McCann, founder and CEO of Asymmetric, stated that market signals such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish press conference on December 18 and the significant rise in the Volatility Index (VIX) have increased the probability of short-term declines. He believes that while the outlook is bearish in the short term, the long-term perspective remains bullish.In addition, the unexpected strengthening of the Dollar Index (DXY) has also become a focal point. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the DXY broke through long-standing resistance levels, reflecting market dynamics of global liquidity constraints and safe-haven demand. Singaporean crypto trading firm QCP Capital pointed out in a report to investors that although favorable regulatory narratives support the spot market, the market environment at the beginning of January may be unstable, as structural risks such as the debt ceiling issue could trigger market volatility. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's performance will continue to be closely related to Federal Reserve policies and the performance of the dollar. The short-term adjustment provides investors with a buying opportunity on dips, but market volatility may pose challenges for investors.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve may encounter more complexities in the October employment report to be released before the upcoming meeting on November 6-7. EY senior economist Lydia Boussour stated, "Any significant wage growth slowdown and a sharp rise in the unemployment rate could lead data-dependent Federal Reserve policymakers to lean towards another 50 basis point rate cut." However, Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, expects two significant 50 basis point cuts in November and December due to the complexities brought about by strikes and hurricane damage.

ChainCatcher news, Bitcoin traders expect that as the sentiment around the broader cryptocurrency industry fluctuates ahead of the U.S. elections, and the selling pressure from key wallets subsides, the price of Bitcoin will rise to reach $70,000 in the near term."The rebound in Bitcoin's price indicates that the market is more optimistic about the recent macro environment," said Lucy Hu, a senior analyst at Metalpha, on Wednesday. "The market is encouraged by Trump's vice presidential pick, which suggests a more favorable government and policy stance towards cryptocurrencies.""Bitcoin may hover around the 120-day moving average, with the potential to rise to $68,000 or even $70,000, but we need to continue closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policies and the impact of Mt. Gox payouts," Hu added.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve's policy statement indicates "slight further progress" towards the 2% inflation target (previously stated as "lack of progress" in the May 1 statement); it is inappropriate to cut interest rates before having greater confidence in the sustainability of inflation moving towards 2%; the economy continues to expand steadily, job growth remains strong, and the unemployment rate stays low; it will continue to reduce its holdings of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research published that traders are complaining that despite Bitcoin's price being only 7% away from its all-time high, there has been no significant movement. Many Bitcoins are being withdrawn from trading platforms, while stablecoin impulse is sending out a warning signal.The trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has dropped to $50 billion, and the financing rates are only slightly positive. There is no doubt that the rates are very low. The Federal Reserve's policies and inflation data are seen as two key variables that could drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high. On June 5, the Bank of Canada may initiate a global rate-cutting cycle, providing a blueprint for the Federal Reserve, while the U.S. inflation data on June 12 needs to show lower figures (3.3%) to drive Bitcoin prices up.The sharp decline in Bitcoin balances on trading platforms indicates that whales are transferring Bitcoin off exchanges in anticipation of price increases. In the past month, 88,000 Bitcoins have been moved off trading platforms, leaving a remaining supply of 2.5 million Bitcoins, the lowest level since March 2018. The outflow of funds from trading platforms began on May 15, coinciding with the 45 days after the quarterly 13F filing requirements for U.S. registered investors managing over $100 million.