cryptocurrency market

Coingecko: In Q1 of this year, the total market capitalization of the crypto market fell by 18.6% to $2.8 trillion, while Bitcoin strengthened its dominant position against the trend

ChainCatcher news, according to the Coingecko quarterly report, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 18.6% to $2.8 trillion in the first quarter of 2025. Bitcoin further solidified its dominance in the market downturn, with its market share rising to 59.1% (a new high since 2021), while altcoins generally performed poorly. The shares of stablecoins USDT and USDC increased, while Ethereum's market share dropped to a five-year low of 7.9%.​1. Bitcoin outperforms traditional risk assetsBitcoin broke through $100,000 in January, reaching an all-time high, but ended the quarter at $82,514 (a decline of 11.8%). Its performance outpaced the Nasdaq index (down 10.3%), but lagged behind gold (up 18%) and U.S. Treasury bonds. Analysts pointed out that the strengthening of the yen and euro, adjustments in monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties have intensified market volatility.​2. Ethereum and altcoins under pressureEthereum's price plummeted 45.3% to $1,805, erasing all gains made in 2024, with daily trading volume shrinking to $2.44 billion. Leading altcoins like Solana (SOL), XRP, and BNB experienced smaller pullbacks, highlighting Ethereum's relative weakness. Meme coins suffered a significant setback due to the exit of Argentine President Javier Milei's related project LIBRA, with daily token deployment on the Pump.fun platform dropping by 56.3%.​3. Changes in exchange landscapeThe spot trading volume of centralized exchanges (CEX) decreased by 16.3% to $5.4 trillion, with Binance maintaining a market share of 40.7%; HTX became the only platform in the top ten to see growth (+11.4%), while Bybit's trading volume was halved due to a hacking incident in February. Among decentralized exchanges (DEX), Solana led Q1 with a 39.6% share, but Ethereum briefly reclaimed the top spot in March. The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi fell by 27.5% to $12.86 billion, while the new public chain Berachain's TVL rose against the trend to $5.2 billion.

4E: Tariff uncertainty makes the market cautious, US stocks are under pressure and the cryptocurrency market fluctuates narrowly

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, tariff uncertainty continues to put pressure on U.S. stocks. On Thursday, the three major indices closed mixed, with the Dow down 1.33%, the S&P 500 up 0.13%, and the Nasdaq slightly down 0.13%. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday. This week, the three major indices have recorded declines for the third consecutive week, with the Dow down a total of 2.66%, the Nasdaq down 2.62%, and the S&P 500 down 1.5%.The cryptocurrency market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with Bitcoin stabilizing around $84,000, and Ethereum hovering below $1,600, while altcoins show reduced volatility. Investors remain cautious amid the uncertainty of tariff policies, with concerns in the derivatives market about declines clearly outweighing expectations for increases.In the foreign exchange and commodities market, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly by 0.01%, marking a third consecutive week of weakness; driven by the weaker dollar and optimistic comments from Trump on energy trade, U.S. crude oil surged over 3% on Thursday, accumulating about a 5% increase this week; gold prices retreated from high levels, with spot gold down 0.46%.The European Central Bank continues its easing policy, while the Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see attitude. On Thursday, Trump sharply criticized Powell's interest rate policy, stating it is "always too late and wrong," and emphasized that firing Powell is urgent. The market is watching whether Powell will adjust policies due to political pressure.

The cryptocurrency market sector has stabilized and rebounded, with the AI sector leading the rise at 3.98%, and the GameFi sector increasing by 2.62%

ChainCatcher message indicates that, according to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector has stabilized and rebounded, with the AI sector leading with a rise of 3.98%. Within this sector, Fetch.ai (FET), Render (RENDER), and Bittensor (TAO) have increased by 6.94%, 8.98%, and 10.36% respectively over the past 24 hours. However, Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), which had previously seen significant gains, is experiencing a correction, dropping 12.89% in the last 24 hours.Other standout sectors include: the GameFi sector, which rose 2.62% in the last 24 hours, with ImmutableX (IMX) increasing by 4.81%; the NFT sector, which rose 1.96%, with APENFT (NFT) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) increasing by 2.20% and 8.07% respectively.Additionally, the Layer1 sector increased by 1.48% in the last 24 hours, with Binance Coin (BNB) and Solana (SOL) rising by 1.09% and 3.63% respectively; the Layer2 sector rose by 0.95%, with Celestia (TIA) increasing by 4.50%; the CeFi sector rose by 0.71%, with Hyperliquid (HYPE) up by 8.10%; the DeFi sector rose by 0.48%, while the PayFi sector fell by 0.52%, and the Meme sector decreased by 0.92%.Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market performance show that the ssiAI, ssiNFT, and ssiDePIN indices have increased by 4.66%, 2.67%, and 2.61% respectively, with weekly returns of 1.81%, 1.23%, and 0.90%.

Analyst: The true bottom for Bitcoin may appear after a "capitulation sell-off," with $65,000 being a key mean support

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, although the possibility of a bottom having already formed cannot be ruled out, on-chain analyst James Check stated that the true bottom may only appear after Bitcoin experiences a real "capitulation sell-off" event.James Check indicated that this could mean Bitcoin needs to drop to around the $65,000 area, which he refers to as the "true market average," or the average cost basis of active investors. Once it falls to this level, the average investor may begin to feel the pressure of unrealized losses, and even those long-term holders who have held their coins for five years may face a "being trapped" situation. Michael Saylor's Strategy has an average Bitcoin cost basis of about $67,500.Although Check expects a significant drop from the $65,000 area, he believes there is strong support between $49,000 and $50,000. This price range represents both the launch price for Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 and symbolizes a critical threshold for Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap. He stated that unless a global economic recession occurs, the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 is low. In 2024, Bitcoin has undergone a long period of "chopsolidation" phase—where the price has remained within a wide fluctuation range of $50,000 to $70,000 for several months, establishing a solid support foundation for the market.

4E: US-EU trade negotiations are at a standstill, US stocks and the crypto market have retreated

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the deadlock in US-EU trade negotiations has led to cautious investor sentiment, causing US stocks to fail to continue their rebound on Tuesday, with all three major indices slightly declining, although volatility has noticeably eased compared to recent times. By the close, the Nasdaq fell 0.05%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.17%, and the Dow Jones decreased by 0.39%. Tech stocks showed mixed performance, with the seven giants index down about 0.4%.Cryptocurrencies weakened across the board, with Bitcoin dropping from $86,496 last night to $83,670 before this report, a nearly 2% decline in 24 hours; Ethereum fell 2.2% below $1,600. The altcoin market generally declined, with the Meme and AI sectors leading the drop.Despite the recent volatility in financial markets, Bitcoin has remained stable above $80,000, demonstrating strong resilience.In the forex commodities sector, the US dollar index's downward trend has slowed, rising 0.59% back above the 100 mark; oil prices remained basically unchanged from the previous day; trade uncertainties have favored safe-haven assets, with London gold surging 1.32% to $3,272, up over 23% year-to-date.The shadow of the trade war continues to loom over the market, with the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies exacerbating concerns about a global economic slowdown, and the deadlock in US-EU negotiations further increasing market uncertainty. The US stock earnings season has begun, with several large companies set to announce their earnings this week, which may intensify market volatility.

4E: The uncertain outlook on tariffs keeps the market on alert, with a slight rebound in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the U.S. government has temporarily suspended tariffs on electronic products, boosting market sentiment. However, Trump stated that there are no "exemptions" from tariffs, and related products have merely been shifted to another tariff category. This erratic policy signal has led to fluctuations in market sentiment. The U.S. stock market opened higher on Monday but closed lower, with all three major indices briefly turning negative during the day, but ultimately ended up collectively. By the close, the Dow Jones rose 0.78%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.79%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.64%. The index of the seven tech giants closed up 0.18%.The cryptocurrency market followed the U.S. stock market with a moderate rise, with Bitcoin fluctuating around $85,000. Strategy announced last week that it purchased 3,459 Bitcoins for $286 million (average price of $82,618), which somewhat boosted market sentiment. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $85,031, up 1.12% in 24 hours. Altcoins showed mixed performance, with gains and losses alternating, resulting in structural volatility in the market as investors sought a balance between optimism and caution.In the forex market, the U.S. dollar index fell over 0.4%, trading below the psychological level of 100 points; oil prices fluctuated due to weakened demand expectations, ultimately rising slightly; spot gold spent most of the day in a downward trend, falling 0.83% after hitting a historical intraday high for three consecutive days.Trump's fluctuating tariff policy keeps the market on alert. On Monday, Trump was "quiet" for a day; for the current market, no news from Trump is good news. Investors are concerned that without clear flexibility and progress in negotiations, the market may face further volatility in the short term. Investors are looking forward to a clearer stance from the White House on tariff issues in the coming weeks to reduce uncertainty in global supply chains and the economy.
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