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The market intends to test the resistance level of 99-100 thousand dollars and successfully breaks through, bringing us to 101-110 thousand dollars, and surprisingly encounters little resistance. Overall, although the increase throughout the week is considerable, the actual volatility remains low, as there are sellers hedging from profit-taking and long gamma positions above the price, resulting in a very orderly price movement when rising.

Risk assets have rebounded significantly, with the increase approaching a level that even the most stubborn bears must reassess. Is this another "dead cat bounce," or the beginning of a new bull market? While we believe such labels are often misleading, the current painful trading in the market still seems to favor rising prices, which remains the path of least resistance in the short term.

Both China and the United States are continuing to take steps towards restarting trade negotiations and easing relations. Recently, both sides have made adjustments to their trade departments and negotiators. The Chinese side stated, "The U.S. side has recently actively conveyed messages to us through relevant channels, hoping to engage in talks with us." In response, the Chinese side said, "We are currently conducting an assessment."

This week, as the market stabilizes, the price of the currency fluctuates within a small range and has not reached the key resistance level of 99-100 thousand dollars. The support level of 89-91 thousand dollars can currently maintain the price within the current range, but if this support level is broken, the price may significantly adjust downwards to 85 thousand dollars. With the end of several holidays last week, we expect to see the price being moved unilaterally—possibly attempting to test 100 thousand dollars—but if it fails to break through, it may lead to

Last week, we saw the price of the coin cleanly and quickly break through the key resistance level of 89-91 thousand dollars (in line with the hundred-day moving average), faster than our initial expectations (and it seems to exceed market expectations). Currently, we expect the price of the coin to take a slight breather and consolidate within the comfortable range of 92-99 thousand dollars, especially considering the upcoming Labor Day and local holidays in Asia.

The United States continues to engage in confrontations with the world over tariff edge policies. Trump recently claimed to have conducted "over 200" trade negotiations and stated that he recently had a call with China. However, this claim was quickly refuted by the Chinese Embassy in Washington, which stated that "there have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the U.S. on tariff issues" and emphasized that "the U.S. should stop creating confusion."

Since the market dipped below the $75k turning point after the election, a week has passed, and this week the price has completely stayed above $80-81.5k, further confirming that this double bottom price is a strong support level. We remain bullish in the medium term and believe that the price will reach new highs in the coming quarters, with technical targets between $11.5-12.5k, but the specific path and timing remain elusive.

Trump's second term is about to reach one hundred days, but the geopolitical situation has undergone tremendous changes compared to a few months ago. The question is no longer whether the United States will decouple from the world, but rather "how" it will decouple; and the United States' "exorbitant privilege" in the global reserve currency system is also facing substantial challenges.