This week's focus will be on CPI and earnings reports, with the market currently having relatively positive expectations for both. Overall, CPI is expected to remain below 3%, and the breakeven inflation rate remains stable. However, the preliminary rise in inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, combined with strong wage growth, may tilt the risk balance upward, which is extremely unfavorable for current market sentiment.

The price trend over the past week has been quite volatile, but ultimately remained between $92,500 and $99,000, leading to a reduction in actual volatility (at least the volatility between settlement points). We speculate that this trend will continue over the next few trading days, but there may be fluctuations at the year-end settlement. Meanwhile, this prolonged price adjustment may end before the year-end and prepare for the next round of increases.

The end of 2024 is approaching, and the last few trading days of this year are more important than expected.