ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 (previously forecasted at 2.2% and 2.0% in March). The probability of the U.S. entering an economic recession in the next year is 45%, the highest level since December 2023.The inflation expectations for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 have also seen the largest upward adjustment since March 2023.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, two senior figures in the U.S. anti-inflation protection and foreign exchange derivatives sectors have launched the dollar stablecoin USDi, whose value is determined by the growth of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) since December 2024. As of April 15, its value is $1.00863.According to Michael Ashton, who began his anti-inflation investment career at Barclays in the early 2000s, USDi is equivalent to the principal of TIPS, or theoretically similar to an inflation-protected savings account (if one existed). Ashton stated, "There is currently no true risk-free asset, that is, inflation-protected cash. Holding cash is an option on future opportunities, and the cost of that option is inflation. If inflation-protected cash is created, that is the endpoint of the risk line."According to a statement from USDi Partners LLC, the token will have the same purchasing power as the dollar in December 2024. USDi will mint and burn tokens at its stated value, which, like the principal of TIPS, will depend on the CPI of the day.Although the government only releases the CPI once a month, it interpolates daily values for TIPS investors to calculate accrued interest. The CPI value determines the index value of TIPS and USDi with a two-month lag, meaning the CPI for December corresponds to March 1, with data published up to May 31. The value of USDi on April 15 is calculated by dividing the CPI of that day (interpolated between the monthly values of January and February) by the CPI of December, which will always be the denominator in the formula.USDi will be backed by a reserve fund managed by Ashton, who has been managing the Enduring US Inflation Tracking Fund for qualified investors since October 2021. The fund holds assets such as TIPS.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the US CPI data, US short-term interest rate futures rose, and traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year is 2.4%, expected 2.60%, previous value 2.80%.The U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month is -0.1%, expected 0.10%, previous value 0.20%.The U.S. March unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is 2.8%, expected 3.00%, previous value 3.10%.The U.S. March seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is 0.1%, expected 0.30%, previous value 0.20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 83.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 16.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 27.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 61.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 11.1%.

ChainCatcher news, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that analysts expect the March CPI report to be relatively mild, which will be the last inflation data not affected by tariffs.Market forecasts a 0.08% month-on-month increase in March CPI and a 0.24% month-on-month increase in core CPI. If the predictions are accurate, the year-on-year CPI will reach 2.5%, and the year-on-year core CPI will drop to 3.0%, the lowest level in four years.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. Department of Labor will release the March CPI and the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending April 5 at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. The previous value of the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year was 2.8%, and the current forecast is 2.6%.Goldman Sachs believes that the main driving factor for the significant increase in the U.S. March CPI will be the continued rise in auto insurance, while tariff pressures will be almost zero.

ChainCatcher message, the important macro data to be released in the U.S. next week is as follows:April 9: U.S. counterpart tariffs officially take effect.April 10 2:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting.April 10 20:30: U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year, expected 2.60%, previous value 2.80%;April 10 20:30: U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month, expected 0.10%, previous value 0.20%;April 10 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 (ten thousand), expected 22.3, previous value 21.9;April 11 20:30: U.S. March PPI year-on-year, expected 3.3%, previous value 3.20%;April 11 20:30: U.S. March PPI month-on-month, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.00%;April 11 22:00: U.S. April one-year inflation expectation preliminary value, previous value 5.00%;April 11 22:00: U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value, expected 54.7, previous value 57.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. February CPI year-on-year growth rate has dropped to a new low since last November, and the core CPI year-on-year growth rate has reached a four-year low. Inflation is below expectations across the board, easing concerns about "stagflation." Traders have increased bets on interest rate cuts, and market risk appetite is warming up.According to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance: the Dow Jones fell by 0.20%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.49%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged over 1.2%, driven by a strong rebound in tech stocks, with Tesla soaring over 7% and Nvidia rising over 6%. However, the market remains concerned that the slowdown in inflation may be temporary, as the Dow has seen three consecutive declines and the limited gains in the S&P reflect cautious market sentiment.The cryptocurrency market is warming up, with Bitcoin spiking to $84,539 at the moment the CPI was announced, then retreating to around $80,000 for support, and continuing to rebound. As of the time of writing, it has risen to $84,000, with a 24-hour increase of 2%. Other major tokens have also seen slight increases, while Ethereum remains relatively sluggish, striving to stay above $1,900. BNB has risen by 4.95% due to a $2 billion investment boost from Abu Dhabi.In the forex and commodities sector, the dollar has seen a slight rebound supported by the slowdown in inflation, ending a previous seven-day decline. Oil demand has strengthened, pushing U.S. oil prices up by over 2.1%. Uncertainty over tariffs and the cooling of inflation have contributed to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold increasing by 0.62% at the close.Although the improvement in inflation opens a window for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy raises doubts about the inflation outlook. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the March 19 decision, with CME FedWatch indicating that traders anticipate possible rate cuts in June and September. Investors are focused on tonight's PPI and initial jobless claims data.

ChainCatcher message, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted in his personal channel that after the CPI favorable news drove BTC to rebound, he has opened a small BTC short position at the price of $84,200, basically just adjusting his position.

ChainCatcher news, after the CPI data was released, the US dollar index DXY fell more than 30 points in the short term, currently reported at 103.34.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. February seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month is 0.2%, expected 0.30%, previous value 0.50%.The U.S. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year is 2.8%, expected 2.90%, previous value 3.00%.The U.S. February seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is 0.2%, expected 0.30%, previous value 0.40%.The U.S. February unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is 3.1%, expected 3.20%, previous value 3.30%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 97.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.0%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until May is 67.0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 32.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9%.

ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bitcoin fell below $80,000 this Tuesday, marking a several-month low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a widely used momentum oscillator — indicates a potential bullish rebound. This indicator has produced a higher low, contradicting the lower lows on the Bitcoin price chart, resulting in what is known as a bullish RSI divergence. This suggests that while prices are declining, the momentum behind the sell-off is weakening, potentially signaling an upcoming reversal to a bullish trend.The analyst added, "The timing of this pattern today couldn't be more interesting, as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time, and is expected to show progress. The bullish divergence in BTC's RSI indicates that a phase ready to react positively to potential weak readings is in place."According to CNBC, the expected data shows that the overall CPI for February and the core CPI, excluding food and energy, are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. This implies an annualized increase of 2.9% for the overall CPI and 3.2% for the core CPI, both 0.1 percentage points lower than in January.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Tickmill analyst Joseph Dahrieh stated in a report that the U.S. CPI inflation data could cause U.S. Treasury yields to move in either direction. A higher-than-expected CPI could boost yields and ease recent expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.Conversely, soft inflation data would lead to a decline in yields. He also mentioned that recent progress towards a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would help enhance risk appetite. Currently, institutional surveys of analysts indicate that the overall and core inflation rates in the U.S. for February are expected to decline slightly.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time). The market expects inflation to ease but remain above the Federal Reserve's target.According to FactSet consensus forecasts, the February CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate decreasing from 3.0% in January to 2.9%. If the forecast is accurate, this will be the first time since early 2023 that it falls below the 3% mark; core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year.The tariffs and immigration restrictions of the Trump administration have raised new concerns in the market regarding the inflation outlook. Wells Fargo economists stated, "The February CPI report may initially reflect the impact of tariffs, but this is just the beginning." The combination of trade frictions and supply chain complexities may undermine the Federal Reserve's confidence in the trend of declining inflation and delay the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, on Tuesday, Trump reversed his stance on Canadian tariff policies multiple times, causing the market to experience a "roller coaster" trend. At the beginning of the session, the U.S. stock market initially rose, but then Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, leading the three major indices to turn negative. Shortly after, news emerged that the policy was paused and both sides would renegotiate, but the downward trend in the U.S. stock market remained unchanged. After the lunch break, the market changed again, with Ukraine agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire. Large tech stock bargain hunters surged, pushing the U.S. stock market to refresh its daily high, but the market weakened again towards the end of the session. By the close, all three major indices ended lower, with the Dow down 1.14%, the S&P 500 down 0.76%, and the Nasdaq down 0.18%. Most of the seven tech giants saw an increase.The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin recovering from a low of $76,606 to above $83,000, rebounding over 8% and reclaiming yesterday's sharp decline. Ethereum rose from a low of $1,754 to $1,920, rebounding over 9%. Some altcoins had even larger rebounds. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies slightly recovered to $2.77 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 2.5%, and market sentiment warmed slightly.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index fell over 0.6%, remaining in a downward trend for most of the day. The outlook for global oil inventories improved, leading to a slight increase in international oil prices; the renewed turmoil in U.S. tariff situations and concerns over economic growth supported safe-haven gold, with spot gold rising over 0.9%.The ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies has continued to impact the market, and the potential effects on consumers and the economy have dampened Wall Street's sentiment. The CPI report at 8:30 PM tonight is highly anticipated, as investors hope to gauge whether the market's concerns about economic stagflation are justified. If the data exceeds expectations, the market may experience another sharp decline.