ChainCatcher message, Citic Securities research report states that the U.S. October CPI growth rate fully meets expectations, with most sub-item readings being moderate, stable commodity prices, and persistent service inflation, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December this year.After Trump's victory, the outlook for U.S. commodity inflation is a concern worth noting. We expect that the overall CPI year-on-year comparison in the remaining two months of this year will be difficult to show a significant decline. Considering the gradual impact of the tariffs and immigration deportation plans proposed by Trump, the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI in the U.S. next year may be around 2.6%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve may not see more signs of inflation easing before deciding whether to cut interest rates again in December. After studying this week's CPI and PPI inflation data, many analysts predict that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, will show that core prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October. This would represent a renewed acceleration in growth since September and means that the core PCE annualized rate has returned to the level seen in May.However, this pain may be temporary. Citigroup economists expect that the core PCE monthly inflation rate may slow significantly in November. But the November data will not be released until New Year's Eve.

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. October CPI data released last night fully met market expectations, causing little stir in the market. However, the data performance has increased market confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 58% earlier on Wednesday to around 80%.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks showed volatility on Wednesday, with the three major indices collectively turning negative at the start, then rebounding to rise, but significantly narrowing gains by the end of the day, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.26%, the S&P 500 slightly up 0.02%, and the Dow Jones up 0.11%. The "Tech Seven Sisters" had mixed performances, and most cryptocurrency concept stocks retreated.The cryptocurrency market regained momentum after a brief pullback. Bitcoin broke through the important $90,000 mark last night, reaching a high of $93,265, then retreated after hitting a new historical high, and as of the time of writing, it was at $89,586. Bitcoin's market capitalization has now surpassed Saudi Aramco, making it the seventh largest asset in the world. Meme coins continue to rise, leading various sectors and becoming the focus of investors' attention.In the forex and commodities sector, after the CPI release, the dollar index initially fell and then rose, reaching a 13-month high since October last year, putting pressure on other currencies, with the offshore yuan falling below 7.25 yuan. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, closing up over 0.45%, lingering at two-week lows. The rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pressured gold prices to decline for the fourth consecutive trading day, hitting a near two-month low.The CPI data, which was in line with expectations, increased the probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and helped to some extent alleviate market concerns about inflation prospects following a potential Trump victory. Currently, the market is focused on Thursday's PPI and weekly initial jobless claims, Friday's retail sales data, and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed officials. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until December is 24.3%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 75.7% (before the CPI announcement, these were 37.9% and 62.1% respectively). The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 16.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 24.3% (before the CPI announcement, these were 26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6% respectively).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Wall Street Journal evaluates the U.S. CPI data and points out that although inflation data is stabilizing, it still seems possible for Federal Reserve policymakers to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their last meeting of the year next month. This is primarily because, despite the bumps along the way, inflation still appears to be on a cooling trend.Additionally, there remains a certain degree of "catch-up inflation" in the data. Federal Reserve officials also believe that the current short-term interest rate levels are restrictive, which means that without further rate cuts, the labor market may cool more than they expect, even putting the economy at risk of recession.That said, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the next consumer inflation report on December 11, one week ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. If the data is much stronger than what Federal Reserve officials hope for, they may choose to temporarily pause further rate cuts. This is especially true if the November employment report, scheduled for release on December 6, shows a rebound in employment, confirming that last month's slowdown was merely a reflection of hurricane and strike-related issues.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. October seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate is 0.2%, expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the pace of U.S. inflation slowdown seems to have lost momentum, which may raise questions about how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year. The market expects the U.S. CPI index for October to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, with some on Wall Street predicting a rise of 0.3%, which would match the largest increase in the past six months. Meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rate may rise from 2.4% to 2.6%, marking the first increase in eight months.However, even if the CPI inflation data for October is strong, Wall Street still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates again at its last meeting of the year in December. But January of next year will be when doubts begin to intensify.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs senior market advisor Dom Wilson stated that the market's focus and most of the volatility clearly stem from the post-election shift. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in November conveyed a message of "steady progress," so a truly significant surprise may be needed to drive the market.Dom Wilson mentioned that rising data could fuel the notion that the fight against inflation is not over yet, leading the market to further reduce the probability of a rate cut in December, especially considering the more optimistic inflation cycle priced in by the market since the election.

ChainCatcher news, the Bank of Montreal believes that any significant impact of the recent storm on inflation data is likely to be limited, which means that the market's reaction to any deviation in core inflation could be pronounced. The market generally predicts that this month's core CPI month-on-month rate will steadily rise by 0.3%, with a tendency for a possible unexpected upside. A reading of 0.4% or higher would cause a stir, especially in the context of the recent election of Trump.Logically, if inflation has already begun to rise before the Republican victory, the effects of tariffs and potential trade conflicts could further exacerbate inflationary momentum.However, although targeted tariffs may not push prices higher, this assumption is currently influencing the sentiment in the U.S. interest rate market. Given this market outlook, the bank expects that an unexpected rise in October's inflation data could have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury yields, with inflation data being the most direct factor that could push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above the 4.50% threshold.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. October CPI report is about to be released. As the first major economic data after the election, it will clearly be a key factor influencing the future policy path of the Federal Reserve. Before this important inflation data is released, the market's rapid upward momentum has paused.According to 4E monitoring, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.86%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended their five-day winning streaks, closing down 0.29% and 0.09%, respectively. Among them, "Trump trade" stocks led the declines, with Tesla down 6.1% and Trump Media Group falling nearly 9%. Cryptocurrency-related stocks had mixed results, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) up 4.88% and Coinbase down 1.58%.The cryptocurrency market generally experienced a pullback, with Bitcoin slightly adjusting after breaking through the $90,000 mark to reach a new high. As of the time of writing, it was reported at $88,196, down 0.61%, while Ethereum was at $3,270, down 1.66%.In the forex market, the U.S. dollar index rose to its highest level since November 2022 on Tuesday, pushing the euro to its lowest in a year, the yen to its lowest in three months, and the offshore yuan briefly fell below 7.25 yuan, with other currencies also under pressure. Weighed down by the strengthening dollar and OPEC's fourth consecutive month of lowering global oil demand growth expectations, oil prices have dropped about 5% over the past two trading days. The rise in the dollar index has pressured gold prices down to nearly a two-month low.After the election, the market has already seen a significant rise approaching overbought conditions, and investors are beginning to consider that the main trading line in the market may shift back to the outlook for monetary policy. The U.S. October CPI report, which will be released tonight, could have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut process. Any significant surprises in the CPI report could trigger more pronounced market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing potential hedging options for investors. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher message, affected by the North American Daylight Saving Time, the U.S. October CPI data will be released tonight at 21:30. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, last week the "Trump Trade" created a stir in the market. Trump's return to the White House and the Republican Party's potential landslide victory in Congress, along with the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, have settled two major risk events, driving a significant rebound in the financial markets.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks surged rapidly, with all three major indices hitting new highs last week, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recorded their best weekly performance of the year. Specifically, the S&P 500 index rose 4.66% over the week, the Dow gained 4.61%, and the Nasdaq increased by 5.74%. Tesla soared to a new high since April 2022, with a weekly gain of 29.01%, pushing its market cap above $1 trillion. Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple to become the world's most valuable company, with a weekly increase of 9.03%. The total market capitalization of the seven tech giants grew by nearly $94 billion over the week.Benefiting from Trump's support for cryptocurrencies and the prospect of pro-crypto lawmakers in Congress, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, setting a new historical high. As of the time of publication, it was at $81,635, with a 7-day cumulative increase of over 18%. Ethereum was reported at $3,207, with a 7-day cumulative increase of over 30%. Altcoins collectively surged, generally outperforming the market, boosting market sentiment.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index rose last week, with a cumulative increase of 0.6% over six consecutive weeks, while non-U.S. currencies were generally under pressure. Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations over the week; early in the week, OPEC+ announced another delay in production increases, causing oil prices to rise sharply. However, U.S. EIA crude oil supplies hit a new high since August, dragging down the weekly oil price gains, with Brent crude rising 1.09% for the week. Spot gold fell 1.85% over the week due to a stronger dollar and the Federal Reserve's indication of an open attitude towards pausing rate cuts.With the U.S. elections concluded, investors will now refocus on the outlook for monetary policy and corporate earnings, continuing to assess the impact of Trump's policy expectations. This week, many Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the latest U.S. CPI data, PPI data, and retail sales figures will serve as important references for investors to gauge the health of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2025. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to analysis reports from foreign media, one of the main points in Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech in Jackson Hole in August was that, given the significant progress made on inflation, the Fed's response is no longer solely focused on inflation. There are clear signs that employment has become a more primary factor in determining policy. Subsequently, employment data has triggered greater cross-asset volatility in recent months.However, with Trump's decisive victory, and more importantly, the possibility of a Republican landslide, market sensitivity to inflation data may rise again. The prospect of implementing protectionist policies through trade tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies could complicate the anti-inflation process. The market has repriced the higher terminal rate of the Fed, raising it from 3.6% to 3.75%.

ChainCatcher news, Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst believes that the combination of the unexpectedly high CPI from yesterday and the U.S. PPI index supports the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points next month. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE, combines price data from both CPI and PPI, so this combination allows forecasters to make accurate predictions for the PCE in September.Citigroup expects that the core PCE, excluding the volatile food and energy prices, will grow by 0.21% month-over-month in September, while the year-over-year PCE will decrease from 2.7% in August to 2.6%. Hollenhorst pointed out that this should encourage the Fed to continue lowering rates.

ChainCatcher news, the CPI report on Thursday showed that the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations across the board, hindering the process of inflation retreat. Another piece of data indicated that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in over a year. The market is increasingly focused on the impact of a slowing labor market, with traders betting that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 83.3%, while the probability of pausing the rate cut stands at 16.7%.According to 4E monitoring, after the data was released, U.S. stocks opened lower, attempted to turn positive at midday, and then collectively closed lower again. The Dow Jones fell by 0.14%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.05%. The cryptocurrency market mostly declined, with Bitcoin once again falling below the $60,000 mark, quoted at $60,533 before publication. Non-U.S. currencies showed mixed results, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut heating up, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index; oil prices surged over 3.5% after two days of decline, influenced by tensions in the Middle East and Hurricane "Milton"; expectations for a rate cut provided support for gold prices, with spot gold rising over 0.9% at one point, ending a six-day decline, while spot silver rose over 2.2%, ending a three-day decline.The CPI increase in September exceeded expectations, intensifying discussions in the market about whether the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts. However, the series of statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that employment is the dominant factor in current policy, and the employment data for October will be crucial in determining the pace and extent of the Federal Reserve's easing. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted that the U.S. announced a September CPI year-on-year rate of 2.4% today, slightly higher than expected, but it is already the lowest level this year, with little reaction in the prices of major investment products.As various macro data is released this week and numerous speeches from Federal Reserve officials conclude, the market currently expects an 82% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut on November 8, with an 18% expectation of no rate cut, and almost no traders believe there is a possibility of a 50 basis point cut.This week, block trades accounted for a significant proportion, with a cumulative 40% of the trading volume coming from block trades, especially block call option trades. The types and maturities of trades are relatively dispersed, with position rolling and adjustment being the main trading drivers, and the market remains predominantly cautious.

ChainCatcher news, according to on-chain data analyst @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, due to negative CPI data, the market has slightly retreated. The associated address of Shenyu 0x3f3...1D4F0 withdrew 2500 ETH from Binance in the past hour, worth 5.98 million dollars, at an average price of 2394 dollars.Currently, this address holds assets worth 44.11 million dollars, including AWBTC valued at 37.43 million dollars, which is the top asset in its holdings.

ChainCatcher news, analysts indicate that the overall inflation rate in the U.S. for September is also higher by one-tenth of a percentage point, reaching 0.2%, which increases the rationale for a 25 basis point rate cut next month instead of 50 basis points. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims surged by 258,000, but this will be affected by factors such as hurricanes. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. September unadjusted core CPI year-on-year is 3.3%, expected 3.2%, previous value 3.20%.