ChainCatcher news, market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continue to increase. Rate futures linked to the Federal Reserve's meeting dates show that the market is pricing in 6 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of next year, totaling 150 basis points.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 98.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 4.7%.The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged until February next year is 89.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at 10.3%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 0.3%.By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 21.5%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 70.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 0.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 100%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0%.In addition, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting at 03:00 Beijing time on November 22.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% this week is 98.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0.0%. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged until December is 74.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 24.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 0.0%.The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision for the U.S. on November 2 at 2:00 PM.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate hikes in July, raising the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level since 2001, in line with market expectations. According to the Federal Reserve FOMC statement, the Fed will continue to assess more information and consider further tightening monetary policy to curb inflation.Powell stated that when determining when to cut rates, both the level and the rate of decline of inflation need to be considered. He personally believes that there will be no rate cuts this year, and whether to cut rates will depend on the Fed's confidence in inflation returning to target. Subsequently, Powell added that if the Fed sees reliable relief in inflation, there would be no need for tightening measures. If inflation is seen to be steadily declining, the Fed could lower rates to neutral levels and then at some point below neutral levels. It is expected that inflation will not return to 2% until around 2025, but rate hikes could stop before inflation reaches 2%.Additionally, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after the July rate decision announcement, the market expects a 79.1% probability that the Fed will maintain rates at 5.25%-5.50% in September, a 20.3% probability of raising rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.50%-5.75%, and a 0.6% probability of raising rates by 50 basis points to a range of 5.75%-6.00%. (source link)

ChainCatcher message, in the absence of data that could weaken expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week, U.S. Treasury yields fell. Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle stated that this rate hike could be the last one in the hiking cycle.The likelihood of an economic recession in the U.S. is lower than market expectations, and rate cuts are not expected to begin until the second quarter of 2024, proceeding at a pace of 25 basis points per quarter, with the final rate settling in the range of 3-3.25%, higher than the long-term forecast of 2.5% on the FOMC dot plot. (Source link)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.00%-5.25% in July is 0.2%, while the probability of raising the rate by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25%-5.50% is 99.8%; by September, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 86.4%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 12.9%.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that it is still too early to declare that the inflation issue has been resolved. Sufficient measures must be taken to raise interest rates to a sufficiently restrictive level. Currently, the Federal Reserve expects to implement one to two rate hikes.Two rate hikes this year remain a reasonable expectation, but there may also be risks of insufficient rate hikes or excessive tightening. (source link)

ChainCatcher news, according to the CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range in July is 92.4%, while the probability of pausing the rate hike is 7.6%. (Source link)

ChainCatcher news, after the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting this morning, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate at 5.00%-5.25% in July is 11.3%, while the probability of raising the rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range is 88.7%; the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 8.8%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 71.6%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 19.5%. (Source link)

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that Fed staff maintain their forecast of a "mild" recession in 2023. Almost all officials expect more interest rate hikes in 2023. Those in favor of rate increases point out that the labor market is very tight, economic momentum exceeds expectations, and there is no evidence that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Wall Street Journal, a paper written by two economists from the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank has attracted market attention. The article points out that the time the U.S. interest rates remain above 5% may be much longer than investors expect, possibly until 2026.These economists state that although the Federal Reserve has tightened policy at perhaps the fastest pace since the 1980s over the past year, the rapidly rising inflation is pushing the equilibrium interest rate level in the U.S. economy to rise at a faster rate. Given that economic growth remains so strong (according to the latest estimates, the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP in the first quarter is 2%), the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates at or above the current level for more than three years to bring the inflation indicator PCE index, which the Fed values, back to the central bank's 2% target. (Source link）

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that it would be appropriate to raise interest rates twice again this year. The vast majority of the committee believes there is still some room for interest rate increases. There is still a long way to go to solve the inflation problem. (Jin Shi)