cryptocurrency

Analysis: The Monte Carlo model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will peak at $713,000 within 6 months

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear," a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025.Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant analyzed Bitcoin prices using Monte Carlo simulations and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate various possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates the average final price of Bitcoin to be $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (the 95th percentile return).However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model largely relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis carries uncertainty akin to "rolling dice." Last week, Quant also emphasized the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the total market cap could reach a new high of over $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.

Canadian regulators: Beware of cryptocurrency scams that attract victims through fake news articles and exploit trade war panic

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, securities regulators in Alberta and New Brunswick, Canada, have warned that crypto scammers are exploiting trade war panic by using fake news articles and images of government figures to profit.The Alberta Securities Commission stated in a warning on March 7 that a crypto investment scam named "CanCap" has been impersonating news articles from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) and falsely claiming endorsement from then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The regulator said, "The false articles claim that the Prime Minister is responding to U.S. tariffs and supports an investment plan involving digital currency."The New Brunswick Financial and Consumer Services Commission also warned on March 5 that CanCap used fake news articles claiming that New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt supports the platform, including fabricated interview records with Holt and altered photos with CBC.Regulators noted that scammers are increasingly exploiting current events to prey on the fears of potential victims and are using artificial intelligence to forge endorsements and generate content to make the scams appear legitimate.They added that scammers can quickly change the names and appearances of their schemes, having already used names like "CanCentra" and "Immediate Flectinium," linking them to at least six other different domain websites.

4E: The decline in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets continues, with this week's CPI and PPI data set to determine the Federal Reserve's decision

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, impacted by weak economic data and Trump's tariff policies, U.S. stocks fluctuated lower last week, with all three major indices closing down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.37%; the S&P 500 dropped about 3.1%, marking its worst weekly performance since September last year. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 3.41%, falling for three consecutive weeks and entering a correction zone with a drop of over 10% from recent highs. Large tech stocks performed poorly, with Nvidia's market value shrinking by $1 trillion from its historical peak, and Tesla down over 46% from its all-time high.The cryptocurrency market's downward trend intensified, as the Bitcoin strategic reserve signed by Trump fell short of expectations, and the White House's crypto summit mainly featured polite remarks, failing to surprise the market and exacerbating the declines. Bitcoin consecutively lost several key support levels, dipping to around $80,000, with a nearly 12% drop over the past week, closing at $82,150 at the time of writing. Other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum experienced even steeper declines, with market sentiment plunging to a low point.In the forex and commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index plummeted by 3.45% last week, marking the largest weekly drop since November 2022, reaching its lowest level since Trump's election victory. The global energy supply and demand outlook is concerning, with U.S. oil falling 3.9% over the week, marking seven consecutive weeks of decline; meanwhile, safe-haven gold rose 1.88% weekly, showing strong performance.Trump's tariff policies have been erratic, and last week's non-farm payroll data failed to provide a clear economic outlook, leading to increasing market fatigue over uncertainty and continued pressure on risk assets. This week, investors are focused on U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data, which will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on March 18-19.
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