Matrixport

Matrixport: Liquidity indicators may not accurately predict BTC trends; attention should be paid to native crypto driving factors or policy impacts

ChainCatcher news, according to Matrixport analysis, the correlation between the rise in global liquidity and the increase in Bitcoin prices has certain limitations. The global liquidity indicator, measured by the total money supply of 28 central banks (in USD terms), although visually correlated with Bitcoin price trends, has its predictive accuracy questioned due to the non-stationarity of the time series and scale differences.The analysis points out that while the growth of money supply may have a lagging effect on the Bitcoin market, this lag time lacks strong theoretical support. Furthermore, although the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has slightly increased in recent years, it remains below the 60% peak during COVID, indicating that Bitcoin trading is more driven by its own dynamics rather than acting entirely as a proxy asset for tech stocks.Matrixport believes that the broad consolidation of Bitcoin prices may continue, and solely relying on liquidity indicators to predict market trends may not be reliable enough. In contrast, focusing on native driving factors of cryptocurrencies or macro variables with direct policy impacts (such as political leaders supporting cryptocurrencies) may be more valuable. Although market perceptions may have mathematical flaws, their widespread acceptance could still have a tangible impact on market behavior.
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