ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that Bitcoin is surging, hitting nearly $90,000 today. A month ago, this seemed like a distant target, and now $100,000 is already within reach. In the past two days, stimulated by the major market movements, the implied volatility across major maturities has seen a slight increase, with short-term IV rising significantly, but still much lower compared to the election period.From the options market perspective, there is a clear market divergence, with trading being very scattered. Some large players are bullish towards the sky, while more traders are currently in a state of missing out.

ChainCatcher news, Lin Chen, the Head of APAC Business at Deribit, posted on platform X stating that the current pricing of the Bitcoin options market is between $68,000 and $95,000 for the end of the year BTC price.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a daily analysis stating that the election battle between Harris and Trump is in a deadlock, with Polymarket's odds gradually approaching actual polling estimates. Currently, Polymarket still favors Trump, giving him a 55% chance of winning, but this is a significant drop from 66% a week ago.The weekend's sideways price movement and the decline of leveraged perpetual contract positions from $30 billion to $26 billion indicate that the market remains cautious. The options market has observed a large number of purchases for $75,000 call options expiring at the end of November since last Friday. As the election date approaches, related options positions are also increasing, with implied volatility exceeding 87 on Friday, even though the actual volatility is only 40.Spot prices are expected to fluctuate within this range until the election results become clearer this week. If Trump wins, it may trigger a rapid price increase; conversely, if Kamala wins, the market may decline.

ChainCatcher news, Bitcoin speculators are preparing for potential market volatility following the U.S. election day. Since the global market crash in August, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index has reached its highest level. This index is compiled by CF Benchmarks Ltd. and is derived from CME Bitcoin options pricing.Caroline Mauron, co-founder of crypto derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets, stated that the options market indicates an expected volatility of about 8% for the day after the vote, while normal volatility typically hovers around 2%. She added, "After November 7, there is no significant volatility premium in the market, suggesting that the market expects election results to be announced quickly. Given that polls show such a tight race, this could be an optimistic prediction."According to a report from crypto derivatives trading platform Derive.xyz, Bitcoin's put and call options were evenly distributed throughout October, indicating that speculators are preparing for both upward and downward movements ahead of the U.S. election. Additionally, data from Deribit suggests that in the weeks following the election, Bitcoin's trading range could be between $60,000 and $80,000 based on the peak open interest positions of put and call options.

ChainCatcher news reports that an institution executed a $25 million hedge trade in the on-chain Bitcoin options market on Derive, betting that Bitcoin will continue to rise after the U.S. elections on November 5. This trade involves a bullish options strategy, aiming for Bitcoin to reach $80,000 before November 29, making it the largest on-chain options trade related to the U.S. elections to date.The institution purchased 100 call options with a strike price of $70,000, while selling 200 call options at $80,000 and 100 put options at $50,000, all set to expire on November 29.Nick Forster, co-founder of Derive, stated that this trade demonstrates the flexibility and scalability of on-chain options trading. If Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by November 29, this strategy could yield a profit of $1.02 million. Derive currently accounts for 32% of the total volume in decentralized exchange options trading, but the scale of the on-chain options market remains relatively small compared to centralized platforms like Deribit.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media that as the cryptocurrency market continued to rise yesterday, the options market saw a large number of block trades. In the past 24 hours, the total trading volume in the crypto options market exceeded $1.2 billion, with Bitcoin put options having the highest trading volume at $530 million, accounting for a quarter of the total trading volume for the day.The largest single trade had a notional value of $66 million, specifically:Sold 500 Bitcoin put options expiring on March 28, 2025, with a strike price of $40,000, each for 0.0130 BTC, with an implied volatility of 60.50%.Bought 500 Bitcoin put options expiring on December 27, 2024, with a strike price of $40,000, each for 0.0042 BTC, with an implied volatility of 67.85%.This deeply out-of-the-money calendar spread trade shows that the trader collected about $300,000 in premiums, leaning overall bullish, but the specific trading intent is difficult to determine accurately. Greeks.live analysis suggests that the selling power in the options market has been strong recently, especially with put options being priced favorably. Although the cost of buying put options is low, it also indicates that most market participants do not have a positive outlook in that direction.

ChainCatcher news, according to Matrixport's latest weekly report, macroeconomic and market sentiment fluctuations have led to a global capital return to traditional financial markets, intensifying downward pressure on crypto assets. The U.S. stock market's linkage to non-farm payroll data has driven BTC upward in the short term, but as a risk asset, BTC has retraced alongside U.S. stocks. Small and mid-cap tokens have outperformed BTC, indicating that the crypto market remains highly speculative during the capital return period. BTC is oscillating around $60,000, with significant selling pressure, and has not yet formed a stable upward trend. ETH demand is weak; despite support from decentralized applications, its price performance lags behind BTC.Rising global economic uncertainty has driven an increase in volatility in the options market, with institutions using options to hedge market risks. Ahead of the U.S. elections in November, volatility expectations in the options market have peaked, and institutions are positioning themselves in advance to avoid sharp fluctuations. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has invigorated the crypto options market, with institutions inclined to profit from volatility trading. Crypto arbitrage opportunities have decreased, with capital shifting to traditional financial markets, leading to tight liquidity, making volatility trading an important strategy.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital stated in an official post that this week there was a conflict between Iran and Israel, and the market expects Israel's retaliation to be more severe, targeting key infrastructures such as Iran's nuclear facilities or oil facilities. Additionally, the non-farm data reflects a strong labor market, coupled with the possibility of further interest rate cuts later this year, which has boosted risk assets, allowing BTC to recover to $62,000.As we enter the fourth quarter, options market activity continues to grow, with increasing demand for December call options, highlighting the market's bullish outlook for the end of the year. Although QCP Capital still believes that macro data supports the "bullish October" (Uptober) view, geopolitical risks remain the biggest hidden danger before the U.S. elections. QCP Capital is more inclined to lock in yields at current levels, securing profits and preparing for a year-end rally.

ChainCatcher news, the fiercely competitive U.S. presidential election has gradually faded from public view, and investors' attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18. Any policy misstep could disrupt a market already on edge due to signs of slowing economic growth.Rocky Fishman, founder of the derivatives analysis firm Asym 500, stated, "The main focus of the market recently may be the Federal Reserve and the beginning of the rate-cutting cycle. Although stock options reflect higher risks around the election, the actual trading volume of election-related expiring stocks has remained limited."Traders are also awaiting the debate between Harris and Trump on Tuesday to further determine their bets on who will win the election. Investors will analyze the candidates' positions on issues such as tariffs, immigration policy, and corporate taxes.John Divine, head of over-the-counter trading at digital asset trading and technology company BlockFills, noted that Bitcoin's short-term positioning is unusually bleak.He said, "The current bet is bearish before October 25, with a slight bullish outlook before the election. When looking at November, we start to see the buy price for call options exceed that of put options, but that is not the case, which is quite shocking to me and highlights the current level of panic in the market."Divine added that while Trump is more favored in the crypto market, the lines of who supports the crypto industry are becoming increasingly blurred. "I think the market is not entirely trading based on who will win the November election. More importantly, they are using the event to drive narratives that align with the current bearish stance."

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that September is typically a bear market month for cryptocurrencies and other asset classes, but October has historically performed strongly. Data shows that in the past 9 years, Bitcoin has achieved positive returns in October in 8 of those years, with an average increase of 22.9%. This seasonal pattern may explain the recent sustained bullish buying in the options market, with 150 call options expiring in December at a strike price of $80,000 observed again during the Asian morning session. QCP suggests that investors may accumulate Bitcoin during the September pullback and take profits in October or by the end of the year.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that by examining Bitcoin's historical performance in September, it was found that there were declines in 6 out of the past 7 years, with an average drop of 4.5%. If this pattern repeats this year, the Bitcoin price could fall to around $55,000. However, analysts expect that $54,000 will become a strong support level, as this level successfully supported the price in July and helped Bitcoin reach $70,000.The report also mentioned that this week's unemployment claims data (September 5) and non-farm payroll report (September 6) may not have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, as the influence of recent macroeconomic data on cryptocurrencies has weakened.Despite the short-term market slump, QCP observed that the options market still shows mid-term bullish signals. The volatility curve is expected to steepen further, while more bullish options positions are being rolled over to March next year. The call options for Bitcoin expiring on March 28, 2025, with a strike price of $120,000, increased by 200 contracts today, bringing the open interest to 2,100 contracts, indicating that investors remain optimistic about the mid-term outlook.

ChainCatcher message, 10x Research released the latest report stating that Bitcoin broke through the symmetrical triangle pattern as expected last week, moving towards the target price of $65,000, currently achieving a 9% return. The Fed meeting minutes released last Wednesday were dovish, which propelled the rise of Bitcoin.10x Research believes that the current market is in a dynamic "hit and run" environment, where rapid tactical trading can yield significant returns. As Bitcoin continues to trade sideways within a wide range, accurately predicting macroeconomic events is crucial for seizing opportunities.In addition, market attention is shifting towards the upcoming Nvidia earnings report, with the options market expecting its stock price to experience about an 8% volatility.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live analyst Adam stated that 18,000 BTC options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.83 and a maximum pain point of $60,000, representing a notional value of $1.12 billion.140,000 ETH options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.93 and a maximum pain point of $2,625, representing a notional value of $370 million.From the options data, the open interest in cyclical options has been continuously declining, with this week's open interest accounting for less than 7% of the total open interest. This week's central bank annual meeting also did not show a significant increase in implied volatility (IV), and the market remains relatively calm, making waiting seem like the best strategy. The options data indicates that the market is in a period of high calmness, with a solid term structure and a gradual decrease in the options market's expectations for future volatility.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on social media that this week's macro events and data have not caused much turbulence. The historical volatility (RV) of cryptocurrencies continues to decline, and the options market's expectations for future volatility are also gradually decreasing.The most noteworthy macro event this month is the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting. News related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is particularly worth paying attention to, and the options data indicates that market expectations are relatively consistent.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts say that as Bitcoin's price has recently pulled back, traders' demand for downside protection has increased, which is reflected in the rise in the number of put options.According to data from Deribit, the put/call ratio of Bitcoin options open interest expiring on Friday has risen above 1, which is seen as a bearish signal for the market. A ratio above 1 means that the number of put options traded significantly exceeds that of call options. This indicates that more investors are betting on or hedging against a price decline rather than a price increase."The increase in Bitcoin options open interest is mainly due to the rise in open interest of relatively bearish put options, which aligns with the recent price pullback of the asset, as Bitcoin options traders have increased their downside bets and hedges. The surge in the put/call volume ratio and a one-month 25-Delta skew indicate a significant increase in demand for downside protection," ETC Group wrote in the report.The report also noted that the implied volatility of Bitcoin options has increased during the recent decline, with the current implied volatility of at-the-money Bitcoin options for one month being around 50.5%. "The term structure of volatility is now also inverted, with the implied volatility of short-term options significantly higher than that of long-term options, which is often a sign of extreme bearishness in the options market," ETC Group analysts added.

ChainCatcher news, according to CryptoSlate, the 25 Delta Skew in the Bitcoin options market has been highly volatile over the past few months. The weekly 25 Delta Skew metric on Deribit tracks the difference in implied volatility between 25 Delta put options and 25 Delta call options, and this metric has shown significant fluctuations. Since January, this skew has ranged from a low of around -15% to a high of over 15%, highlighting the changing sentiment of options traders and the market's perception of risk.Recent data shows that the skew has surged sharply due to the current correction in Bitcoin. This volatility often reflects a shift in traders' outlook between bearish and bullish scenarios.It is reported that the 25 Delta Skew refers to the implied volatility difference between put options with a delta of -25% and call options with a delta of 25%, indicating a disparity in market views on implied volatility. The calculation of the 25 Delta Skew is the difference between the implied volatility of 25 delta put options and the implied volatility of 25 delta call options, normalized by the ATM implied volatility. This metric focuses on options contracts that expire in one week.

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that as the quarterly options expiration date approaches this Friday, the options market appears unusually calm, and the typical end-of-quarter volatility sell-off effect is beginning to show. Today, there are reports that ETH ETFs are about to start trading:VanEck has submitted the 8-A form, notably, the same form for the Bitcoin ETF was submitted exactly 7 days before its issuance.VanEck subsequently announced that it will waive any fees during the initial phase of its ETH ETF.In addition, the ETH options market expiring in July has not shown much enthusiasm so far. A significant breakthrough in the approval process could surprise the market. QCP Capital also pointed out that ETH shows strong support levels at $3,200 and $2,800, especially the $2,800 support level, which has not been touched for over four months.

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly to a low of $60,500 after the Mt. Gox trustee announced that distributions would begin in early July. Although the Mt. Gox exchange trustee has extended deadlines multiple times over the years, more than 140,000 Bitcoins (worth $9 billion) were transferred earlier this year in preparation for debt repayment. Meanwhile, the firm observed that there was little activity in the July options market, suggesting that the market does not expect this distribution to trigger significant volatility. Given that spot prices are stabilizing above the $60,000 support level and that market activity is expected to be low in July, QCP Capital tends to deploy an accumulation strategy.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated: The spot price of ETH has sharply rebounded from a low of $3400, with the front-end implied volatility rising to 65%.They believe this strong bullish sentiment is supported by two developments: the SEC is about to conclude its investigation into Ethereum 2.0, eliminating the possibility of ETH sales being classified as securities transactions. Ethereum ETF issuers are responding to the SEC's comments and plan to submit a reply this week.In addition, the options market reflects optimistic sentiment, with active buying of call options across various maturities. If 10-20% of the Bitcoin ETF flow is captured, the price of ETH could break through $4000, approaching the $4800 peak.