ChainCatcher news, Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown said in a report that the dollar weakened during the European trading session, but its good days are not over yet. He stated, "I still firmly believe in a bullish outlook for the dollar." The notion of "American exceptionalism" remains strong. Compared to other major central banks, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is lower, which should continue to support the dollar. The weak phase provides investors with an opportunity to buy the dollar. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 22.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 77.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate until January next year is 17.2%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 64.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 18.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, as expected. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of over $1.3 billion on Thursday, and against this backdrop, traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects.Min Jung, an investment analyst at Presto Research, stated, "In the short term, $100,000 will become the next major focus level, as this number is symbolic and represents a change in digits. Looking ahead, we believe the U.S. may eventually incorporate Bitcoin into its balance sheet, perhaps as part of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' or something similar, but likely under a more low-key name. With that in mind, we believe Bitcoin's target is around $110,000."Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, said, "After the U.S. election results were announced, the leading cryptocurrency surged significantly, but it is currently holding at high levels, possibly consolidating its strength before the next round of increases. Overall, we maintain that the new highs have triggered a wave of strong growth, expected to rise to $100,000-$110,000 within 2-3 months without experiencing significant pullbacks." However, some traders warn of potential short-term pullbacks, although they remain generally bullish on BTC, indicating that post-election market adjustments and policy uncertainties could lead to short-term corrections.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, in line with market expectations. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to a new report from CCData, the stablecoin industry will have to endure significant losses in interest income following the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut. The top five centralized stablecoin issuers collectively hold nearly $125 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, accounting for nearly 80.2% of their reserve funds. For every 50 basis points the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it will result in an annual loss of $625 million in interest income for dollar stablecoin issuers.Data shows that Tether holds nearly $93.2 billion in U.S. Treasury securities and repurchase agreements, which contributes significantly to its net profit of $5.2 billion in the first half of 2024. The second-largest stablecoin, USDC, holds $28.7 billion in U.S. Treasury securities through its Circle Reserve Fund, while FDUSD, PYUSD, and TUSD hold $1.83 billion, $634 million, and $502 million in U.S. Treasury securities, respectively.

ChainCatcher news, stablecoin research company Bluechip posted on the X platform that for every 50 basis points the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Tether's annual revenue decreases by $488 million, and Circle's annual revenue decreases by $144 million. As the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the earnings that stablecoin issuers receive from U.S. Treasury bonds decline, which may force them to make riskier investments to compensate for the loss of income.In addition, according to screenshots shared by Bluechip, as of September 22, Circle and Tether hold over $125 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds.

ChainCatcher news, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan published a blog post, in which he pointed out that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points last week, marking the first rate cut in over four years. Coupled with the recent rate cuts by several major central banks globally, this has strengthened the financial market's expectation of a gradual decline in global interest rates.The loose financial environment is also favorable for the asset market atmosphere and the business operating environment. Although under the linked exchange rate system, it can be expected that the future interest rate trend in Hong Kong will generally follow that of the U.S., the speed and extent of the cuts will depend on local capital flows and market conditions.In the context of a gradually improving overall environment, there is a greater need to further promote the Hong Kong market. As the appetite for investment risk gradually rises and investors chase higher returns, it is essential to explore broader and more diversified sources of funding for the Hong Kong market.Following the listing of the first ETF tracking Saudi Arabian stocks in the Asia-Pacific region at the end of last year, the Saudi Capital Market Authority recently announced the approval of the first ETF investing in Hong Kong stocks, which will be listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange, allowing local and Middle Eastern funds to invest more conveniently in stocks listed in Hong Kong. Hong Kong will continue to strengthen its promotion in various traditional and emerging markets and foster more cooperation. It is believed that as interest rates decline, it will better leverage funds from different markets to inject new momentum into Hong Kong's capital market.

ChainCatcher news, on the 18th, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut to the target range for the federal funds rate, exceeding market expectations. This is the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in four years and marks a shift from a tightening monetary policy cycle to an easing cycle. The dot plot indicates that the Federal Reserve expects to cut rates by another 50 basis points this year.According to 4E Exchange observations, after the interest rate decision was announced, U.S. stocks experienced a rollercoaster ride, with all three major indices climbing and then retreating, ultimately closing slightly lower. Both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 indices reached all-time highs during the day. Non-U.S. currencies rose broadly, oil prices dipped slightly, gold fell after reaching a new high, and the cryptocurrency market saw widespread gains, with Bitcoin up 3.26% and Ethereum rising 3.1% as of the time of writing.With the onset of the rate-cutting cycle and the continued decline of risk-free rates, institutional investors may increase their positions in the cryptocurrency market in search of higher returns. However, it is important to note that while rate cuts typically have a positive impact on risk assets, significant cuts have also raised some market concerns about the health of the U.S. economy, which can have a significant impact on prices. 4E reminds you to pay attention to recent market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, early this morning, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, marking the first rate cut in over four years. Former U.S. President Trump stated that the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut indicates, "Assuming they are not just playing politics, the economic situation must be very bad to warrant such a large cut." "This is a significant rate cut," Trump added. Previously, U.S. Vice President Harris stated that the Federal Reserve's decision is good news for Americans. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has begun a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, marking the first rate cut since March 2020.

ChainCatcher news, Howard Marks of Oak Tree Capital stated that after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, U.S. rates will be in the range of 3% to 4%. Marks, co-chairman and co-founder of Oak Tree Capital, said at a conference in Melbourne on Thursday that the Federal Reserve will lower rates from the emergency level of 5.25% to 5.5% down to the 3% line. He also emphasized that he believes rates will stay around the 3% line and will not return to zero, 0.5%, or 1%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, the dollar fell ahead of the U.S. employment data release, which could change the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. Antje Praefcke, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, stated in a report that the dollar may "fluctuate back and forth" on Wednesday and Thursday, but "almost no one will dare to take a heavy position in one direction," as Friday's report will be decisive.She noted that the employment data for August is particularly important, as the report for July had already sparked speculation about larger rate cuts. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, considering the Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, Friday's data may determine whether the Fed's rate cut this month is conventional or extraordinary.IG market analyst Tony Sycamore stated, "Everyone is cheering for the idea of a rate cut, but the idea of a rate cut is not a good thing, as it means the economic situation is worse than it might have been. I think the situation looks a bit dangerous this week." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Paul Christopher, the global investment strategist at Wells Fargo, stated that the U.S. stock market is set to experience a rally like never seen in the past 30 years.Paul Christopher believes that today's market is similar to that of 1995, when the stock market was booming and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) set 77 historical highs. Investors may face a similar environment. This is because inflation is declining, the economy "is not collapsing," and the U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that the GDP grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the second quarter.Paul Christopher told CNBC on Thursday that the Federal Reserve "is in a favorable position if it can be sufficiently proactive."

ChainCatcher message, the PCE inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve will not be released until the end of the month. However, unless there are unforeseen macroeconomic changes, it is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut borrowing costs at the September meeting. Nevertheless, it remains difficult to predict the specific actions of policymakers, and this uncertainty suggests that there may be more volatility in the future.The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market has not yet decided whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points next month, with traders slightly leaning towards a more cautious rate cut. If the Federal Reserve takes more aggressive measures, it could boost the appeal of the retail and consumer sectors. However, if officials opt for a more cautious rate cut, investors might see this as a good time to buy shares of the seven major tech giants. As initial jobless claims and retail sales data are set to be released, the situation will continue to evolve. The Federal Reserve may also take the opportunity at next week's Jackson Hole meeting to signal the direction of interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, TS Lombard U.S. economist Steven Blit stated that if the Federal Reserve does not take action soon, people will look for signs that the economy is heading into a recession rather than looking for indicators of the recession itself.The continuously emerging weak data is not a serious crime against growth, but it can cause problems. If the Federal Reserve remains stagnant or waits for data to drive their actions, they will repeat past mistakes, and the likelihood of entering a recession later this year will rise to 75%. Given that the Federal Reserve is expected to signal a 50 basis point rate cut in September soon, the actual likelihood is even lower. By the end of the year, they may cut rates by 100 basis points. If the Federal Reserve takes action, the probability of a recession will be lower, but not zero. (Jin Shi)