ChainCatcher news, Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that the employment data did not "change the outlook for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in two weeks."Additionally, Bill Eigen, a bond expert at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned the market ahead of the Fed's next meeting that the room for rate cuts may not be as large as it imagines, and central banks should be cautious about cutting rates again in December. He added that this is due to some signs indicating that the U.S. economy is beginning to heat up again, including strong GDP growth, slightly higher-than-expected inflation data from last month, and record stock prices.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the next meeting have decreased, while the inflation and employment data scheduled for release next week may still change those expectations.According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates has dropped from nearly 20% earlier this month to 2%. Most are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points. The September PCE data will be released next Thursday, and the October employment data will be released next Friday. Price data shows that inflation is persistent but not overheating. Employment data may be affected by one-time impacts from hurricanes and strikes.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the strong employment data was released, traders further bet that the Federal Reserve will stick to a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December.

ChainCatcher news, on Wednesday local time, the ADP employment report, known as the "little non-farm," was released, showing employment data exceeding expectations and a significant improvement compared to the previous month. This indicates that despite some signs of weakness in the overall U.S. employment, it remains generally stable, and the market continues to accept the logic that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant interest rate cuts next time. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, increasing market concerns.According to 4E observations, U.S. stocks opened lower and then fluctuated slightly upward, with the Dow closing up 0.09%, the Nasdaq up 0.08%, and the S&P 500 up 0.01%. Continuing to be affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, risk appetite was suppressed, and Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, currently reported at $61,000, while Ethereum dropped over 4.3%, falling below $2,400 to its lowest level in nearly two weeks.In the forex and commodities market, non-U.S. currencies fell broadly, and the U.S. dollar index rose for three consecutive days this week, hitting its highest level in nearly three weeks; spot gold experienced significant volatility, with prices initially dropping sharply before rebounding. Although the "little non-farm" ADP data stimulated the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, the tensions in the Middle East provided support for gold prices. The market is concerned about Israel's strikes on Iran's oil industry, with oil prices rising nearly 4% at one point.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research pointed out in its market analysis that while most people's attention is focused on U.S. employment data, the ISM Manufacturing Index has triggered a 10% market adjustment in the first week of each of the past three months. However, employment data plays a key role in shaping market sentiment. Weak employment data has heightened concerns about an economic recession and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, while stronger employment data has reassured investors that the U.S. economy is more resilient than the ISM Manufacturing Index suggests.The ISM index may accurately reflect economic conditions. However, the market has been interpreting employment data through the lens of lower inflation, which is expected to give the Federal Reserve more room for aggressive action. In July of this year, we emphasized that the ISM could signal the end of the Bitcoin cycle, and the ISM data released at 10 AM Eastern Time on October 1st will be crucial for assessing the U.S. economic outlook.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," after the Labor Department releases unemployment data this week, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30%.

ChainCatcher News: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the U.S. economy is in good shape, and the cooler employment data in recent months indicates that the economy is undergoing a soft landing rather than a recession. Yellen mentioned that there have been no significant layoffs in the U.S., and the economy is experiencing a "deep recovery."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that today's employment data is a continuation of the trend we have been observing; the job market is slowing down, and the monthly inflation data has been below expectations. The policy has just been tightened, raising serious questions for this meeting and the coming months. We must ensure that the labor market does not deteriorate. The content of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book is relatively pessimistic, indicating warning signs in the economy.There is a general consensus within the Federal Reserve that multiple rate cuts will occur. (When asked about larger rate cuts) Goolsbee stated to pay attention to the dot plot, which does not show inflation decreasing so quickly or unemployment rising so high. (When asked if there would be a 50 basis point cut in September) Goolsbee stated that the outcome of the next meeting itself is not the most important; the path of rate cuts in the coming months is more crucial.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch data, after the release of the U.S. August ADP employment data today, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points in September decreased from 45% to 37%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 63%.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam stated that the Bank of Canada has just announced a 25 basis point rate cut, in line with market expectations. The U.S. stock market continues to decline at the opening, with leading company Nvidia having dropped 20% in a week. The crypto market has also been dragged down by macro factors and the U.S. stock market, experiencing continuous declines recently. Therefore, the employment data in the next couple of days is worth paying attention to. If the economic data is weak, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month will be on the table, which would be beneficial for stopping the decline in both the U.S. stock market and crypto.However, from the options data, currently, except for the U.S. election week, the implied volatility for other maturities remains relatively stable. Crypto market whales have not bet on significant fluctuations this month, generally believing that the market will be relatively stable.

ChainCatcher news, the dollar fell ahead of the U.S. employment data release, which could change the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. Antje Praefcke, a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, stated in a report that the dollar may "fluctuate back and forth" on Wednesday and Thursday, but "almost no one will dare to take a heavy position in one direction," as Friday's report will be decisive.She noted that the employment data for August is particularly important, as the report for July had already sparked speculation about larger rate cuts. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Walter Bloomberg, Citigroup analysts stated in a report to clients on Tuesday that they expect the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to increase by 125,000 new jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.Citigroup stated, "The shift from inflation to employment has been completed," indicating that the focus of Federal Reserve policy will shift from inflation indicators to employment data. Citigroup's forecast suggests that an increase of 125,000 jobs, combined with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, would be sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.The report noted that if the unemployment rate slightly decreases to 4.2%, the Federal Reserve may choose to cut rates by 25 basis points, although this would not change Citigroup's expectations of continued slack in the labor market and an economic slowdown. The volatility in the labor market has become as pronounced as inflation data in recent years.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a chart stating that Bitcoin is about to face its most challenging month, September. It noted that historically, the return rate in September has been negative. This year adds extra pressure, including the outlook for the U.S. tech industry following Nvidia's earnings forecast, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election debate (with Harris facing Trump). This September will have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price movement. From 2022 until the second quarter of 2024, there has been a strong correlation between Nvidia and Bitcoin. However, recently, while the AI rebound has led to a surge in Nvidia's stock, Bitcoin has not kept pace. Both asset prices are breaking new lows, indicating an increase in consolidation depth. The market is about to respond to the U.S. employment data to be released on September 6.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Labor stated that last week, due to a technical failure, the U.S. government failed to timely share key non-farm (revised) data. At the same time, he acknowledged that staff had provided this data to callers before its official release. In the future, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is overseen by the Department of Labor, will release data through multiple platforms, including social media, to ensure that the data is available at the time of publication. The Department of Labor spokesperson stated in an email that the department has implemented a new policy requiring employees handling data inquiries to share data with clients only after senior officials at the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm that the public can access the data widely. The spokesperson mentioned that on August 21 local time, the preliminary benchmark revision of the non-farm data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed by more than half an hour, forcing staff to manually upload the data. According to the spokesperson, although these figures were visible to Bureau of Labor Statistics employees internally on the website at 10:10 AM Washington time, the data was not available to external network users until around 10:32 AM. The spokesperson also indicated that the situation became more complicated due to a lack of communication within the bureau on how to respond to public inquiries. Because the 10 AM embargo had already passed, some Bureau of Labor Statistics employees provided the information to those who requested the data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, in his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of U.S. employment data for the upcoming monetary easing cycle.Stephen Stanley of Santander Bank stated in a report that this increases the significance of the employment data for August, which will be released on September 6. He mentioned that after the unexpectedly low job growth in July, "the growth in August is not entirely shocking. More broadly, Powell and others at the Fed have recently begun to express concerns about the cooling conditions in the labor market, so stronger data in August could dispel the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut next month." Stanley believes that the employment report may be more critical than the August core CPI data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that before the September meeting, the Federal Reserve can wait for more data. The Federal Reserve's responsibility is not to react to one month's employment data.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the Federal Reserve has been in a tightening mode. Such strict measures are only necessary when there are concerns about the economy overheating. Currently, employment data is below expectations, but there are no signs of an economic recession yet.