ChainCatcher message, Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han stated, "Despite the lackluster price movement of Bitcoin this week, market sentiment has remained largely unchanged, as evidenced by the stable perpetual contract funding rates and open interest over the past week." Coinbase analysts pointed out that the macro factors influencing cryptocurrency performance are shifting from monetary policy to the results of the U.S. elections. Despite the recent rise in CPI and core PPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain broadly stable.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released a chart stating that as implied volatility remains low, Bitcoin traders need to establish corresponding positions to prepare for a potential bull market that may arise from Trump's victory. Bitcoin options will expire on November 8, 2024, but the market has not shown extreme positioning, indicating that traders are cautious about the election results. However, the strike prices of $65,000 and $70,000 suggest that many traders are anticipating a market rebound.The trading volume in the Bitcoin options market this year has ranged between $42 billion and $71 billion, gradually replacing the underperforming crypto stocks since the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, becoming a more favored leveraged tool among traders. Additionally, although MicroStrategy's current stock price is higher than the value of its held Bitcoin, holding MicroStrategy shares has become an alternative option for gaining direct exposure to Bitcoin.At the beginning of this year, the macroeconomic situation improved, and Bitcoin prices rebounded at one point, but as both market structure and liquidity driving factors weakened, a pullback occurred.Trump's victory could bring positive news for Bitcoin, but if the Federal Reserve adopts a tightening monetary stance to counteract the excessive economic stimulus from Trump's policies, the rise will face resistance. During this pre-election period, traders looking to profit in the short term may consider using call option arbitrage strategies to manage risk and capture upside gains.

ChainCatcher news, according to data from Greeks.live, 18,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.91, and the maximum pain point at $62,000, with a notional value of $1.1 billion. 212,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.4, and the maximum pain point at $2,450, with a notional value of $510 million.Cryptocurrency remains weak, with fierce competition around the key level of $60,000, and ETH is also near the long-term support line of $2,300. A market reversal could happen at any moment. The market performance in the first two weeks of this fourth quarter has been poor, and the options market is also relatively sluggish, with the current open interest in options having fallen to a new low since 2023.However, a sluggish market also breeds new trading opportunities. The at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC on November 8 is only 50%, making it very suitable for building some medium to long-term bullish positions at low levels. This week, large bullish trades are gradually becoming active, and there is a high possibility of market movement around the U.S. elections.

ChainCatcher message, Musk retweeted the U.S. election prediction data from the prediction market Polymarket on his personal social platform and stated, "Trump is leading Harris by 3% in the betting market. Since real money is involved in the betting market, these markets tend to be more accurate than opinion polls."

ChainCatcher news, Musk changed his Twitter account profile picture to a personal photo with elements of the U.S. election, featuring the American flag in the background and Musk's personal photo wearing a black hat with the "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" slogan.

ChainCatcher news, according to official sources, the latest report from Coinbase titled "Ten Things About Crypto Voters" shows that as the U.S. elections approach, crypto voters will become an important voting demographic.A third-party study commissioned by Coinbase and conducted by Morning Consult found that the crypto voter demographic exhibits high diversity in age, gender, and political affiliation, but they generally believe that the financial system needs reform and that crypto technology can drive this change. These voters actively seek candidates who support cryptocurrency and advocate for reasonable crypto regulation policies to protect consumers and promote innovation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan CEO Dimon stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will not affect the U.S. elections, and Trump's views may bring more uncertainty to the world. He hopes the U.S. can achieve a soft landing but is skeptical about inflation.

According to ChainCatcher news, SynFutures has launched a perpetual contract for the probability of winning the U.S. presidential election, allowing users to leverage up to 10 times on the Polymarket prediction market for either Trump or Harris winning the presidency. Currently, the probability of Trump winning the presidency on Polymarket is 47%, while Harris's probability is 52%. The settlement for the aforementioned contract market will take place around November 4.It is reported that SynFutures is currently one of the largest on-chain derivatives trading markets. According to DefiLlama's derivatives data dashboard, its trading volume in the past 24 hours ranks in the top 3 of the market; since its mainnet launch in March, the cumulative trading volume has exceeded $17 billion, with over 9.5 million on-chain transactions; in the second quarter, its market share in Blast's derivatives market exceeded 65%, and it ranked first in trading volume just two weeks after launching on Base. SynFutures previously announced that it secured $38 million in funding from top industry institutions such as Pantera, Polychain, Dragonfly, and Standard Crypto, and the protocol has been audited by Quantstamp.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned that election gambling related to the U.S. elections is about to see explosive growth, and has requested the appellate court to continue suspending Kalshi's political prediction market while the agency's appeal is still pending.In a document submitted on Saturday, the CFTC stated that the district court's order has been interpreted by Kalshi and others as the "open season for election gambling," referring to a ruling on September 6 that determined the CFTC should not block the company from offering contracts on which party will control both houses of Congress.The agency noted that following this ruling, Wall Street giant Interactive Brokers announced it would offer contracts for the presidential election through its CFTC-regulated subsidiary. The CFTC indicated that unless the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia extends the suspension of Kalshi contracts during the appeal, other CFTC-regulated exchanges will follow suit.The CFTC reiterated that "the surge in election gambling on U.S. futures exchanges will harm the public interest." These harms include market manipulation and undermining the integrity of elections.

ChainCatcher news, FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on social media that, according to Breadcrumbs.app data, the cryptocurrency industry has contributed $190 million in political donations for the 2024 U.S. election so far.In comparison, cryptocurrency donations were only $15 million during the 2020 election.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Wylie Tollette, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, believes that "if inflation in the housing sector persists, then a 50 basis point rate cut could actually accelerate or amplify this situation." He expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next week and added that this election could complicate the prospects for significant rate cuts. Trump previously stated that a Fed rate cut would help Harris become the incumbent vice president, "even though they know they shouldn't do that."Wylie Tollette stated, "The Fed's path is that they want to do the right thing for the economy, and I don't think they want to be seen as benefiting the incumbent candidate through more aggressive rate cuts."

ChainCatcher news, Standard Chartered's Head of Foreign Exchange and Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, stated in a recent analysis report that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin prices are expected to reach new all-time highs by the end of 2024. Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could reach $125,000; if Harris is elected, the price could reach $75,000.Kendrick emphasized that the impact of the U.S. election on Bitcoin's future trends is relatively small compared to market expectations. He pointed out that positive changes in the regulatory environment are one of the key factors driving the growth of Bitcoin prices. Regardless of who occupies the White House, the process of relaxing digital asset regulations (especially the repeal of SAB 121) is expected to continue advancing in 2025.Additionally, Kendrick mentioned that the development of the U.S. Treasury market provides favorable conditions for Bitcoin's long-term trends. He anticipates a seasonal rebound in capital inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs in October.

ChainCatcher news, Federated Hermes Senior Portfolio Manager for Global Equities Lewis Grant stated that as the U.S. election approaches, financial markets may continue to be volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the election results. He mentioned that the first presidential debate between Democratic candidate Harris and Republican candidate Trump provided little substantive policy clarification, "the uncertainty surrounding which candidate's economic agenda will take effect— and even what those agendas are— will affect market sentiment."Federated Hermes expects that market volatility will further intensify ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week and the U.S. election. "In the short term, the market will react quickly to changes in the U.S. election and macro outlook." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to market information, after the U.S. election debate, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) fell 13% in pre-market trading.Blockchain concept stocks generally declined, with MicroStrategy (MSTR.N) and Riot Platforms (RIOT.O) down about 3%, and Coinbase (COIN.O) down 2%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport's latest report points out that while people are focused on the impact of the next U.S. president on Bitcoin, the actual influence may be more reflected in the regulation of the Bitcoin ecosystem rather than Bitcoin itself. During the Republican (2016-2020) and Democratic (2020-2024) administrations, cryptocurrencies experienced strong growth.Therefore, despite the media buzz surrounding the upcoming election, regardless of who takes office in the White House, Bitcoin may continue to perform positively.

ChainCatcher news, Taylor Swift stated on Tuesday that she supports Vice President Kamala Harris's presidential campaign, ending speculation about whether the superstar singer would share her political views before the November election. Swift said she will vote for Harris in the election.Swift wrote on Instagram: "I’m voting for Harris because she fights for rights, and I believe we need a warrior to defend those rights. I think she is a strong, talented leader, and I believe that if we have calm rather than chaos in leadership, we can achieve greater things in this country. I am very encouraged and impressed by her choice of Tim Wu as her running mate, who has supported LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and women's rights to their own bodies for decades."