ChainCatcher News: U.S. consumer confidence in February fell short of expectations, marking the largest monthly decline in over three years. Additionally, Trump stated that after the grace period, tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will be fully imposed, intensifying market concerns about tariffs and economic recession.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks saw more declines than gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones rising 0.37%, the S&P 500 falling 0.47%, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.35%. Most large tech stocks declined, with Tesla plummeting over 8.39%, bringing its market value below $1 trillion, followed closely by Nvidia, which fell 2.8%. A recent report from Goldman Sachs indicated that hedge funds are withdrawing from U.S. tech and media stocks at the fastest pace in six months, with the seven tech giants entering a technical correction zone.The cryptocurrency market had already led the decline ahead of U.S. stocks yesterday, with Bitcoin dropping to $86,050 at one point and Ethereum hitting a low of $2,313. The cooling of meme coin trends, along with the upcoming unlocking of a large number of tokens, caused SOL to experience the steepest decline, dropping nearly 50% over the past month. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $774 million yesterday, marking six consecutive days of net outflows. The cryptocurrency market has remained sluggish since February, and the week started with another significant drop, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 21, a new low since September of last year.In the forex commodities sector, consumer confidence data pressured the dollar, causing the dollar index to drop 0.2%, nearing a two-month low set on Monday. Market concerns about oil demand, coupled with potential peace talks from Russia, led to oil prices falling over 2%. After reaching new highs, investors took profits, resulting in spot gold dropping over 1.2%.A series of weak data recently suggests that the U.S. economy may be entering a recession. The S&P and Nasdaq have seen four consecutive declines, exacerbating market concerns about declining consumer confidence and the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Traders are generally maintaining a cautious stance, waiting for more economic data and policy guidance. eeee.com (http://eeee.com/) is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 8%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news reports that the famous investor Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has harshly criticized the economic impact of President Trump's "America First" strategy on U.S. trade policy. In a recent interview, Rogers stated that trade restrictions against countries like China and India not only undermine global economic stability but also harm the United States itself.He warned, "Trump's 'America First' policy will not only hurt China but will also hurt the entire world. Trade controls benefit no one. They are detrimental to the world and to his own country." Rogers emphasized domestic financial issues in the U.S., pointing out that inflation and the increasing national debt pose serious threats to the American economy.He stressed, "The U.S. already has economic problems, including inflation. Although central banks around the world are lowering interest rates, the issue of inflation has not been resolved. The trade war will bring inflation back, and it will be even worse." He foresees that this event will have widespread effects, adding, "The U.S. is heavily in debt. When Trump tries to solve economic problems, he will make mistakes that are detrimental to the world. This will affect the entire globe, and we will see the largest economic recession in history."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the "golden path" has become history, and last year's inflation declined without an economic recession. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, the Guosheng Macro team stated that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, slightly exceeding market expectations. However, Powell's speech was hawkish, stating that this rate cut is not the norm. The dot plot indicates another 50bp cut within the year, while the market expects a total of 75bp cuts this year. Considering historical patterns and the asset performance after this meeting, this significant rate cut should have reinforced market concerns about a U.S. economic recession. It is inclined to believe that, given the time needed to falsify recession expectations and the upcoming U.S. elections on 11/5, major asset prices may experience significant volatility in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent U.S. data can confirm or falsify recession expectations, as well as the progress of the elections. (Jinshi)

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that he does not rule out the possibility of stagflation, although confidence in easing inflation is growing.Dimon warned at the Institutional Investor Committee's fall meeting in Brooklyn, New York, that despite signs of economic cooling, serious risks remain. He said, "I think the worst outcome is stagflation—economic recession, higher inflation... I would not rule out that possibility." Dimon expressed concerns about potential ongoing inflationary pressures, citing factors such as increased government spending and rising deficits. He pointed out that while inflation data is improving, indicators like employment and manufacturing show the economy is under pressure. He warned, "These are all inflationary, basically in the short term, for the next few years (continuing)." He emphasized that despite some positive economic signals, significant uncertainty remains, and inflationary pressures could weigh on the U.S. economy.Dimon has consistently warned about an economic slowdown, noting in August that the likelihood of a "soft landing" is only 35% to 40%, indicating that a recession may be the more likely outcome. He highlighted various uncertainties, including geopolitical issues, housing, and spending. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to BusinessInsider, Peter Berezin, the Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, recently wrote that investors should prepare for a potential recession in the U.S. economy, as the Federal Reserve may not be able to save the economy, and investors' strategies should change accordingly.Peter Berezin pointed out that the Federal Reserve may not be able to save the economy. Previously, the economy fell into recession within a few months after the central bank began cutting interest rates in January 2001 and September 2007. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by more than two percentage points in the next 12 months. Unless the Federal Reserve is more accommodative than the market has already anticipated, or a recession occurs, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to decline significantly from current levels.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has published a new article titled "Sugar High," discussing issues such as why the yen's interest rate hike is still insufficient.Hayes states that as we enter the final phase of the third quarter, the liquidity conditions of fiat currencies are very favorable for cryptocurrency holders. Central banks around the world, led by the Federal Reserve, are now lowering the cost of funds. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates while inflation remains above target, and the U.S. economy continues to grow. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank may continue to lower interest rates at their upcoming meetings. Treasury Secretary Yellen has committed to issuing $271 billion in Treasury bonds by the end of the year and conducting a $30 billion buyback. This will inject $301 billion in dollar liquidity into the financial markets. The U.S. Treasury still has about $740 billion left in the Treasury General Account (TGA), which can and will be used to stimulate the market and help Harris win.The article also states: "If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates while inflation is above target and the economy is growing strongly, imagine what they would do if a recession actually hit the U.S. economy. They would ramp up money printing and significantly increase the money supply. This would lead to inflation, which could be detrimental to certain types of businesses. But for assets with limited supply like Bitcoin, it would be a rapid journey to the moon."

ChainCatcher message, data released on Tuesday by a U.S. nonprofit and nonpartisan research organization indicates that the economic indicators in the U.S. still point to an economic slowdown, but no longer suggest a recession. This is a positive signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.The organization's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.6% in July to 100.4, following a 0.2% decline in June. The index peaked in the second quarter of 2022 and has been declining since then. The LEI includes several forward-looking indicators, such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, the average number of initial unemployment insurance claims, the ISM new orders index, stock prices, and the leading credit index.It helps identify changes in economic trends and turning points in financial markets and is considered one of the most reliable signals for predicting recessions—defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The continued decline of the LEI suggests that the economy is facing impending headwinds.However, the annualized six-month change rate for July narrowed to -2.1%, compared to -3.1% in June, indicating that the risk of recession is diminishing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a U.S. economic recession from 25% to 20%.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that some leading recession indicators are sending warning signals. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news indicates that the Japanese yen rose slightly against the US dollar on Friday, but is expected to record its largest weekly decline since June. This follows the release of a series of economic data from the United States that eased concerns about a recession and supported bets on a gradual easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, stated: "We believe that economic growth is slowing, inflation is also slowing, and the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates, but there will not be a panic situation. Just a week or two ago, panic was still spreading. We still believe that we will see 2 to 3 rate cuts, most likely 2 rather than 3, unless we see a continued rise in the unemployment rate as seen in the last employment report." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and chief economist at New Century Advisors, shared her insights on the U.S. economy. Despite growing concerns about a recession, Sahm emphasized that the current labor market still shows strength, indicating that the economy may not yet be in a recession.

ChainCatcher news, market analysts indicate that the market has experienced several weeks of turbulence ahead of the CPI report release in July. A pessimistic non-farm payroll report showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns among investors about a recession in the U.S.Claudia Sam, the initiator of the "Sam Rule," downplayed its significance in the current situation. A decline in inflation rates would give the Federal Reserve more confidence to cut interest rates, thereby reducing the likelihood of a recession. Rising prices would disappoint the market and could trigger another crash. Many market participants are on vacation in August, which means they will react strongly to the upcoming data. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated that a recession remains the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy, insisting that the probability of a "soft landing" is only 35% to 40%.In an interview with CNBC, Jamie Dimon emphasized the ongoing uncertainty facing the market, pointing out geopolitical issues, housing, deficits, spending, quantitative tightening, and elections, all of which can cause market panic. Despite his cautious stance, he acknowledged that the economy is performing better than expected.