ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated: "If inflationary pressures are controlled, I will support lowering the policy interest rate as soon as possible at the next meeting to bring it closer to a neutral level and maintain a healthy labor market.""Bowman has been very focused on inflation risks since last year. She mentioned that due to the expectation of more idle capacity in the economy this year, she believes that the price increases caused by tariffs will be 'modest and one-time.' She described the labor market as solid and expected it to be close to full employment levels.However, she also cited evidence of vulnerabilities, including weakened labor market vitality, slowing economic growth, and a narrow concentration of job growth, and therefore believes that the Federal Reserve should 'pay more attention to the downside risks facing the employment goal' in future decisions. This is the first substantive comment on the economic outlook from Bowman since she was nominated by Trump and confirmed by the Senate as the Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve this spring.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Federal Reserve official Daly stated that a rate cut in the fall seems more appropriate unless there is a softening in the labor market. He pointed out that the economic fundamentals are moving in a direction that may require a rate cut, company CEOs are cautiously optimistic about tariffs, and the impact of other possible tariff measures on inflation may not be as significant.Daly emphasized the need to continue monitoring policy trends in the future, and if there are no tariff measures, consideration will be given to normalizing interest rates. He also mentioned that the continuous decline in inflation is good news, and concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation are not as severe as initially announced. So far, the economic situation is good, and the policy is also in balance.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report states that inflation is "slightly high" and the labor market is in "good condition." The value of the US dollar in foreign exchange has generally declined.At the beginning of April, the government bond market continued to operate in an orderly manner, but liquidity has decreased to levels not seen since early 2023. The slow start in 2025 is related to tariff adjustments. Tariffs have impacted the confidence of households and businesses, and the effects of tariffs have not yet been reflected in official data, making it too early to assess their impact on the economy. Some early signs indicate that tariffs have driven inflation up.Financial stability is "resilient" amid increasing uncertainty.

ChainCatcher message, HSBC analyst Elizabeth Martins said in a report that UK employment data could reverse the situation, favoring a rate cut by the Bank of England in August. Slowing wage growth and rising unemployment have increased market pricing for this outcome.Recent policies may push wage growth in the opposite direction: new wage taxes could reduce wage growth, while an increase in the minimum wage could boost wage growth. The answer seems to be that so far the Bank of England has been too dovish. Even with May's inflation data coming in weaker than expected, it is not enough to prompt Bank of England policymakers to cut rates next week.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, institutional analysts commented on the U.S. non-farm payroll report, stating that the unemployment rate remains stable, wage growth exceeds expectations, and hourly wages have slightly increased, which will ease concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market. The increase in employment numbers for May exceeded the expected median, but the cumulative downward revision for the previous two months was 95,000, which far outweighed the positive impact of May's results. Analysts pointed out that the reduction of 8,000 jobs in manufacturing is not what the Trump administration hopes to see. Undoubtedly, we will hear predictions from the White House economic team that this situation will improve as many companies, including Apple, commit to investments in the U.S.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased for the second consecutive week last week, indicating a weakening labor market amid the worsening economic headwinds brought by tariffs.During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses generally hoarded workers in their efforts to find labor, but the increasing uncertainty brought by President Trump's tariffs has forced some companies to lay off employees.Economists expect that the number of initial jobless claims this month will exceed the range of 205,000 to 243,000 in 2025, mainly due to difficulties in adjusting data for seasonal fluctuations, and similar trends have also emerged in recent years. The rise in continuing jobless claims aligns with consumers' declining confidence in the job market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, stated that recent economic data is very good. The economy is close to full employment. The labor market is essentially in a balanced state. Inflation has been slowly and gradually declining.Due to trade issues, economic growth in the first quarter was unusual. Monetary policy is in a good position. The policy is slightly restrictive and in good shape. Some forward-looking indicators have sent concerning signals. Trade is an especially uncertain factor.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Short-term inflation expectations have risen. The labor market is not the main source of significant inflationary pressure.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve official Goolsbee stated that it is currently the time to pause interest rate adjustments and take a wait-and-see approach, with a high threshold for policy changes. He pointed out that the labor market remains robust and is more inclined towards market inflation expectation data. Goolsbee believes that the current high tariff levels will temporarily push up inflation and harm economic growth, although some measures have been suspended. In addition, he stated that U.S. Treasuries remain the safest asset globally, and the recent strong auction of ten-year Treasuries has alleviated market concerns.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the process of achieving the 2% inflation target has slowed down. The Fed's responsibility is to ensure that one-time price level increases do not evolve into a persistent inflation problem. The outlook is highly uncertain, with elevated risks of rising unemployment and worsening inflation. While uncertainty is high and the risks of economic downturn are increasing, the economic situation remains good.Data indicates that economic growth is robust, the labor market is balanced, and inflation is close to but still above the 2% target. Surveys show that expectations have weakened and uncertainty has increased due to new federal policies, particularly trade policies. The Fed system is closely monitoring the relationship between hard data and soft data. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is not a source of inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that next Friday's U.S. monthly employment report (including non-farm payroll data) will provide the latest clues about the strength of the labor market.Although January's data showed that job growth was below expectations, it also indicated that the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 4.0%, and wage growth increased from 3.8% to 4.1%.Therefore, labor data is widely regarded as supporting the Federal Reserve's shift to a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year, "although more signs are needed to indicate how the economy has fared since the presidential election."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased moderately last week, indicating that the fundamentals of the labor market remain solid. In recent days, Elon Musk's government efficiency department has laid off thousands of federal employees. The unemployment claims of these laid-off workers were submitted separately under the Federal Employee Unemployment Compensation (UCFE) program, with data reported one week behind.The White House aims to cut about 2.3 million federal government workers, excluding the military and the post office. The unemployment rate remains at historically low levels, but this situation may change as workers who rely on federal contracts or funding lose their jobs. Federal government layoffs, hiring freezes, and budget cuts are expected to have a ripple effect on local economies, particularly in Washington D.C. and the neighboring states of Virginia and Maryland, and trigger layoffs in the private sector.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, economists at Piper Jaffray believe that large-scale layoffs in U.S. federal agencies may not have a significant impact on the overall labor market.They reviewed the precedent from 2011 to 2014, when budget sequestration led to a reduction of 146,000 federal employees. During this period, the private sector added 7 million jobs as it recovered from the Great Recession, easily absorbing the decline in federal employment.Overall, the reduction in the federal workforce from 2011 to 2014 was not a major issue.According to the agency's statistics, the Trump administration may have laid off about 26,000 people so far, with up to 75,000 more accepting the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) severance compensation plan.

ChainCatcher news, senior economist Luke Bartholomew from investment company Abrdn stated in a report that the impact of the upcoming increases in UK employers' National Insurance contributions and the national minimum wage may prompt the Bank of England to accelerate its rate cuts in the second half of this year.Data released on Tuesday showed that the average wage growth rate is expected to rebound to 5.9% by the end of 2024, and for now, rate cuts are still expected to be gradual. However, the biggest test will be how the labor market responds to the changes announced in the government's autumn budget. There are clear signs that recruitment intentions are expected to cool. If economic growth remains very slow, then it is quite likely that the Bank of England will cut rates more quickly in the second half of this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, Fed's Logan stated that if the labor market remains strong, better inflation data does not necessarily mean the Fed can cut interest rates. Even with better inflation data, caution should be exercised regarding interest rate changes; the inflation data in the coming months will be very important; attention should also be paid to geopolitical and policy changes; these factors' impact on the economy is being observed carefully.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended a hearing of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, delivering his semiannual monetary policy testimony and answering questions from lawmakers. Key points from Powell's testimony include:Inflation has significantly approached the long-term target of 2%, although it remains slightly high. He is closely monitoring various risks under the dual mandate.Recent data shows that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace.A wide range of indicators suggest that the labor market is overall balanced and does not pose significant pressure on inflation.The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce the size of its securities holdings.The restrictiveness of monetary policy has significantly decreased, and the economy remains strong, so there is no need to rush to adjust the policy stance.The FOMC will comprehensively assess the latest data, changes in the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. As the economy develops, the Federal Reserve will adjust its policy stance to maximize employment and ensure price stability.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace. Boosted by resilient consumer spending, GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 2.5%. Investment in equipment and intangible assets seems to have declined in the fourth quarter, but overall performance for the year remains strong.After experiencing a slowdown in the middle of last year, activity in the real estate sector appears to have stabilized. In terms of the labor market, conditions remain solid and seem to have settled. Over the past four months, the average monthly job addition has been 189,000. Following an earlier rise, the unemployment rate has remained stable since the middle of last year, standing at 4% in January, still at a low level.Nominal wage growth has slowed over the past year, and the gap between job openings and workers has narrowed. Overall, a range of broad indicators suggests that labor market conditions are roughly balanced. The labor market is not a significant source of inflationary pressure.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Hamak delivered a speech stating that the current economic situation is good, and the job market remains robust.He emphasized that the current inflation risk is tilted to the upside, and it is still unclear whether inflation will continue to decline to 2%. The current monetary policy is only "moderately restrictive," and controlling the inflation rate within the target range is crucial for the Federal Reserve.Hamak also stated that the Federal Reserve is fully prepared to respond to economic changes. While reducing inflation, the Federal Reserve faces the challenge of maintaining a healthy job market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, the Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts at its January meeting, and when or whether it will resume rate cuts remains uncertain, especially as the market waits to see how Trump's second administration's tariffs and immigration policies will develop.Flack Global Metals economist and research director Daniel Doderer stated, "I think the Federal Reserve is in a very good position to do nothing for the time being. We are transitioning from a balanced labor market to a market that may face supply constraints while demand remains unchanged or even higher, which suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates. Therefore, our internal expectation is that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. However, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates is slightly higher compared to the possibility of raising rates."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analyst Anstey stated that the strong performance of January's non-farm payroll data confirms expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. With the labor market remaining resilient, Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to be eager to restart the rate-cutting process.