ChainCatcher news reports that the famous investor Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has harshly criticized the economic impact of President Trump's "America First" strategy on U.S. trade policy. In a recent interview, Rogers stated that trade restrictions against countries like China and India not only undermine global economic stability but also harm the United States itself.He warned, "Trump's 'America First' policy will not only hurt China but will also hurt the entire world. Trade controls benefit no one. They are detrimental to the world and to his own country." Rogers emphasized domestic financial issues in the U.S., pointing out that inflation and the increasing national debt pose serious threats to the American economy.He stressed, "The U.S. already has economic problems, including inflation. Although central banks around the world are lowering interest rates, the issue of inflation has not been resolved. The trade war will bring inflation back, and it will be even worse." He foresees that this event will have widespread effects, adding, "The U.S. is heavily in debt. When Trump tries to solve economic problems, he will make mistakes that are detrimental to the world. This will affect the entire globe, and we will see the largest economic recession in history."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the "golden path" has become history, and last year's inflation declined without an economic recession. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that he does not rule out the possibility of stagflation, although confidence in easing inflation is growing.Dimon warned at the Institutional Investor Committee's fall meeting in Brooklyn, New York, that despite signs of economic cooling, serious risks remain. He said, "I think the worst outcome is stagflation—economic recession, higher inflation... I would not rule out that possibility." Dimon expressed concerns about potential ongoing inflationary pressures, citing factors such as increased government spending and rising deficits. He pointed out that while inflation data is improving, indicators like employment and manufacturing show the economy is under pressure. He warned, "These are all inflationary, basically in the short term, for the next few years (continuing)." He emphasized that despite some positive economic signals, significant uncertainty remains, and inflationary pressures could weigh on the U.S. economy.Dimon has consistently warned about an economic slowdown, noting in August that the likelihood of a "soft landing" is only 35% to 40%, indicating that a recession may be the more likely outcome. He highlighted various uncertainties, including geopolitical issues, housing, and spending. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to BusinessInsider, Peter Berezin, the Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, recently wrote that investors should prepare for a potential recession in the U.S. economy, as the Federal Reserve may not be able to save the economy, and investors' strategies should change accordingly.Peter Berezin pointed out that the Federal Reserve may not be able to save the economy. Previously, the economy fell into recession within a few months after the central bank began cutting interest rates in January 2001 and September 2007. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by more than two percentage points in the next 12 months. Unless the Federal Reserve is more accommodative than the market has already anticipated, or a recession occurs, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to decline significantly from current levels.

ChainCatcher news, sources say that the divergence among European Central Bank policymakers regarding the economic growth outlook is increasing, which may impact the interest rate cut debate in the coming months. Some are concerned about a recession, while others focus on persistent inflationary pressures. As the Eurozone economy enters a more unstable state, future policy decisions may become more complex. The crux of the debate lies in how weak economic growth and the potential for recession will affect inflation—this is the ultimate concern of the central bank, which aims to reduce the inflation rate to 2% by the end of 2025.Dovish policymakers remain in the minority, believing that the economy is weaker than expected, and the risk of recession is rising, as companies that previously hoarded labor begin to cut job vacancies, leading to a weak labor market. Once employment numbers decline, disposable income will also decrease, quickly eroding consumption and leading to a self-reinforcing economic recession. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has published a new article titled "Sugar High," discussing issues such as why the yen's interest rate hike is still insufficient.Hayes states that as we enter the final phase of the third quarter, the liquidity conditions of fiat currencies are very favorable for cryptocurrency holders. Central banks around the world, led by the Federal Reserve, are now lowering the cost of funds. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates while inflation remains above target, and the U.S. economy continues to grow. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank may continue to lower interest rates at their upcoming meetings. Treasury Secretary Yellen has committed to issuing $271 billion in Treasury bonds by the end of the year and conducting a $30 billion buyback. This will inject $301 billion in dollar liquidity into the financial markets. The U.S. Treasury still has about $740 billion left in the Treasury General Account (TGA), which can and will be used to stimulate the market and help Harris win.The article also states: "If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates while inflation is above target and the economy is growing strongly, imagine what they would do if a recession actually hit the U.S. economy. They would ramp up money printing and significantly increase the money supply. This would lead to inflation, which could be detrimental to certain types of businesses. But for assets with limited supply like Bitcoin, it would be a rapid journey to the moon."

ChainCatcher message, data released on Tuesday by a U.S. nonprofit and nonpartisan research organization indicates that the economic indicators in the U.S. still point to an economic slowdown, but no longer suggest a recession. This is a positive signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.The organization's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.6% in July to 100.4, following a 0.2% decline in June. The index peaked in the second quarter of 2022 and has been declining since then. The LEI includes several forward-looking indicators, such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, the average number of initial unemployment insurance claims, the ISM new orders index, stock prices, and the leading credit index.It helps identify changes in economic trends and turning points in financial markets and is considered one of the most reliable signals for predicting recessions—defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The continued decline of the LEI suggests that the economy is facing impending headwinds.However, the annualized six-month change rate for July narrowed to -2.1%, compared to -3.1% in June, indicating that the risk of recession is diminishing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a U.S. economic recession from 25% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news indicates that the Japanese yen rose slightly against the US dollar on Friday, but is expected to record its largest weekly decline since June. This follows the release of a series of economic data from the United States that eased concerns about a recession and supported bets on a gradual easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, stated: "We believe that economic growth is slowing, inflation is also slowing, and the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates, but there will not be a panic situation. Just a week or two ago, panic was still spreading. We still believe that we will see 2 to 3 rate cuts, most likely 2 rather than 3, unless we see a continued rise in the unemployment rate as seen in the last employment report." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, market analysts indicate that the market has experienced several weeks of turbulence ahead of the CPI report release in July. A pessimistic non-farm payroll report showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns among investors about a recession in the U.S.Claudia Sam, the initiator of the "Sam Rule," downplayed its significance in the current situation. A decline in inflation rates would give the Federal Reserve more confidence to cut interest rates, thereby reducing the likelihood of a recession. Rising prices would disappoint the market and could trigger another crash. Many market participants are on vacation in August, which means they will react strongly to the upcoming data. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan now believes that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession by the end of this year is 35%, up from 25% at the beginning of last month.Economists at JPMorgan, led by Bruce Kasman, wrote in a report to clients on Wednesday that U.S. data "suggests that labor demand is weakening more sharply than expected, with early signs of layoffs emerging." The team maintains a 45% probability of a recession occurring by the second half of 2025.Kasman and his colleagues wrote, "We have moderately raised our assessment of recession risks, while the adjustment to our interest rate outlook is more significant."JPMorgan now believes that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve and other central banks keeping interest rates high for an extended period is only 30%, down from a predicted 50% two months ago. As inflation pressures in the U.S. decline, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com, global investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised the likelihood of an economic recession in the U.S. next year from the previous 15% to 25%, although they maintain that the risks remain limited.Led by Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economists believe that the overall economic outlook is stable, there are no severe financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has the capacity to quickly cut interest rates if necessary. Goldman Sachs' forecast indicates that the Federal Reserve will consecutively cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, while JPMorgan and Citigroup predict a more aggressive 50 basis point cut in September. They believe that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely unless job growth in August is as weak as in July.Additionally, Goldman Sachs expects that the labor market will not deteriorate rapidly due to strong job demand and the absence of significant economic shocks.

ChainCatcher message, cryptocurrency analyst Alex Krüger posted on social media: "The current market crash is clearly driven by macro factors, rather than being specific to the cryptocurrency industry. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that the main driving factor is not the collapse of the U.S. economy (discussions about a U.S. recession heated up after last Friday's employment data).It seems that the policy mistake was not the Federal Reserve's failure to cut rates quickly enough, but rather the Fed's decision not to cut rates when Japan raised its rates. This statement does seem a bit 'hindsight', and we now need U.S. economic data to confirm this.The chart shows the starting point of last week's sell-off, which was right after the FOMC statement last Wednesday. It coincided with the opening time of the Nikkei index.A financial crisis primarily triggered by a large number of Japanese leveraged speculators is much better than one caused by a recession in the U.S.As for U.S. data, the current focus is on the labor market, so special attention should be paid to this Thursday's initial jobless claims (which are usually not market-moving data), as well as the state employment data to be released on August 16 (State Employment data, which provides detailed state-level employment data and is rarely focused on by the market)."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Nigel Green of deVere Group stated in a report that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates soon, but waits until the next meeting in September to do so, it would be a dereliction of duty. Last Friday, the unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate was the underlying reason putting pressure on stock index futures, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields.Green called for an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, while other analysts suggested an emergency cut of up to 75 basis points to avoid a recession. The Federal Reserve "needs to take action now... otherwise, there could be a risk of a far-reaching hard landing."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the Federal Reserve has been in a tightening mode. Such strict measures are only necessary when there are concerns about the economy overheating. Currently, employment data is below expectations, but there are no signs of an economic recession yet.

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone announced the latest issue of the "Crypto Outlook" report on Twitter, which points out that even if BlackRock's application for a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, it will not be launched within 2023.In addition, McGlone noted that the Federal Reserve has already announced in the recent FOMC meeting that it will "raise interest rates a few more times" this year, combined with weakening liquidity and a potential bear market in stocks, the crypto market will still face upward resistance. He also stated that, given the Federal Reserve, economic recession, Nasdaq, and many other factors, the ETF launched by BlackRock may not protect Bitcoin from the impact of the impending U.S. economic recession in the coming months. (source link)