US stock market

4E: The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, slows down balance sheet reduction to release liquidity, and both the US stock market and cryptocurrency market rise collectively

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations. At the same time, it announced a significant slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT), easing market liquidity pressures. Powell reassured investors that the risk of recession is low, the U.S. economy remains strong, and the job market is still solid.According to 4E monitoring, the Fed's dovish stance boosted risk assets, with all three major U.S. stock indices rising on Wednesday: the S&P 500 up 1.08%, the Dow up 0.92%, and the Nasdaq up 1.41%. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla rising 4.68% and Nvidia up 1.81%.The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin continuing to rise to $87,453 driven by tech stocks, before slightly retreating to $85,866 at the time of writing, a 24-hour increase of 3.6%. Other major tokens also rose collectively, with Ethereum returning above $2,000, while XRP surged over 11% due to the SEC dropping its appeal against Ripple.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index soared, but the increase quickly narrowed to 0.21% after the Fed announced its decision to hold steady; U.S. oil closed up 0.39%; spot gold prices hit a historic high during trading for two consecutive days, approaching $3,052 during Powell's press conference.Powell acknowledged at the press conference that Trump's economic policies have brought significant uncertainty to the U.S. economy, but reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy. The updated dot plot indicates that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, consistent with the forecast from December last year. At the same time, the Fed downgraded its economic growth forecast while raising its inflation expectations, showing characteristics of "stagflation."

4E: The US stock market ended February on a low note, Trump’s endorsement caused a surge in the crypto market, and this week focuses on non-farm payrolls and the crypto summit

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, the U.S. stock market ended February poorly due to weak economic data and the impact of Trump's tariffs, with the Nasdaq leading the decline by nearly 4%, marking the worst monthly performance since April last year. The S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 1.42%, and the Dow Jones by 1.58%. The seven tech giants saw a continuous decline in the first four days of last week, with stock prices plummeting collectively, only rebounding on Friday. For the week, Tesla had the largest drop of 13.27%, followed by Nvidia with a 7.07% decline, resulting in a total market value loss of $2.2 trillion for the seven giants compared to the December peak.The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, plummeting last week due to U.S. tariff policies, weak macro data, the unlocking of SOL institutions, and the largest outflow of spot ETFs for the week. Bitcoin fell to a low of around $78,000, the lowest since November 11 of last year. ETH and SOL crashed, with many altcoins dropping to all-time lows. Amid extreme market panic, Trump personally "called out" on Sunday, advocating for BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA to be included in the national cryptocurrency strategic reserves. The market quickly rebounded on the news, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $95,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin rose 8.5% to $92,969, ETH increased 11% to $2,439, SOL surged 20% to $171, ADA skyrocketed 60% to $1.06, and XRP rose 24% to $2.78.In the foreign exchange and commodities sector, the dollar overall trended downward, with a cumulative decline of about 0.8% in February. International oil prices fell after two consecutive months of increase, with a cumulative drop of over 3% in February, marking the largest monthly decline since September last year. Spot gold plummeted over 2.7% this week, but still saw a cumulative increase of over 2.1% in February.Several U.S. economic data points performed poorly, raising investor concerns about the risk of stagflation. Last week, the U.S. January core PCE met expectations, somewhat alleviating inflation worries. This week, key focuses include the U.S. February non-farm payroll report, the Federal Reserve's economic conditions beige book, Powell's speech, and the White House cryptocurrency summit.

4E: Concerns over tariff policies and economic recession rise, leading to declines in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market

ChainCatcher News: U.S. consumer confidence in February fell short of expectations, marking the largest monthly decline in over three years. Additionally, Trump's statement about imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico after the grace period has heightened market concerns about tariffs and economic recession.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks saw more declines than gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones rising 0.37%, the S&P 500 falling 0.47%, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.35%. Most large tech stocks declined, with Tesla plummeting over 8.39%, bringing its market value below $1 trillion, followed closely by Nvidia, which fell 2.8%. A recent report from Goldman Sachs indicated that hedge funds are withdrawing from U.S. tech and media stocks at the fastest pace in six months, with the seven tech giants entering a technical correction zone.The cryptocurrency market had already led the decline ahead of U.S. stocks yesterday, with Bitcoin dropping to $86,050 at one point and Ethereum hitting a low of $2,313. The cooling of meme coin trends, along with the impending unlocking of a large number of tokens, caused SOL to experience the steepest decline, falling nearly 50% over the past month. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $774 million yesterday, continuing a six-day streak of net outflows. The crypto market has remained sluggish since February, and the week started with another significant drop, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 21, the lowest level since September of last year.In the forex market, consumer confidence data pressured the dollar, causing the dollar index to drop 0.2%, approaching a two-month low set on Monday. Market concerns about oil demand, coupled with potential peace negotiations in Russia, led to oil prices falling over 2%. After reaching new highs, investors took profits in gold, with spot gold dropping over 1.2%.A series of weak data recently suggests that the U.S. economy may be heading into recession. The S&P and Nasdaq have seen four consecutive declines, intensifying market worries about the impact of declining consumer confidence and tariff policies on the economy. Traders are generally maintaining a cautious stance, awaiting more economic data and policy guidance.

Point72 founder: U.S. stocks may face significant adjustments, expecting U.S. economic growth to slow to 1.5% in the second half of the year

ChainCatcher news, billionaire hedge fund founder Steve Cohen, founder of Point72, stated during a speech in Miami that U.S. stocks may experience a significant adjustment due to the policies of the Trump administration. Cohen expects that in the second half of 2025, the growth rate of the U.S. economy will slow from 2.5% to 1.5%, marking "the first time in a while that I feel very negative."Cohen pointed out that the tariff policies of the Trump administration are essentially a form of taxation, which could provoke international trade retaliation; at the same time, immigration restrictions will affect labor force growth, and the anti-corruption initiatives of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are essentially contractionary policies. These factors combined will have a negative impact on the economy. Against the backdrop of the S&P 500 index rising over 50% since the beginning of 2023 and Nvidia's increase of 800%, current market valuations are at historical highs, with most investors, including hedge funds and retail investors, holding near-maximum positions, leading to significant downside risks in the market.It is reported that Point72 is known as "Wall Street's craziest money-making machine," and Cohen has been named by U.S. media as the most influential trader in Wall Street history. He is also the inspiration for the character Bobby Axelrod, a financial tycoon in the popular American TV series "Billions." Analysis from Goldman Sachs' trading department shows that if stocks fall by 10% within a month, it could trigger about $200 billion in systemic selling, with one-third coming from the U.S. market.
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