ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rates are expected to decline further, but he hinted that rates may not decrease as much in the coming months. Powell mentioned that the Federal Reserve may implement more rate cuts, as economic trends and dynamics are expected to remain unchanged at least in the short term. This includes a slowdown in the job market and cooling inflation, while interest rates remain at restrictive levels; maintaining rates at the current high levels could push up unemployment. Powell stated, "Over time, we will shift policy to a more neutral level."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that due to the strong U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve does not need to "rush" to lower interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will "carefully observe" to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within acceptable ranges. Powell reiterated that the path of the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates will depend on upcoming data and the evolution of the economic outlook. He mentioned that the inflation rate is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target but has not yet reached it.The Federal Reserve will closely monitor core inflation indicators for goods and services excluding housing, which have been declining over the past two years. "We expect these indicators to continue to fluctuate in the near term, and the path to the Federal Reserve's 2% target may sometimes be bumpy." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The Federal Reserve is committed to completing the task of controlling inflation. A strong economy allows the Federal Reserve to make decisions cautiously.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the Federal Reserve will have to feel its way toward a neutral interest rate, depending on whether inflation stabilizes. There may be more cost pressures in the future, and adopting a prudent approach is advisable.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve may not see more signs of inflation easing before deciding whether to cut interest rates again in December. After studying this week's CPI and PPI inflation data, many analysts predict that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, will show that core prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October. This would represent a renewed acceleration in growth since September and means that the core PCE annualized rate has returned to the level seen in May.However, this pain may be temporary. Citigroup economists expect that the core PCE monthly inflation rate may slow significantly in November. But the November data will not be released until New Year's Eve.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, stated that to maintain the strength of the dollar, the Federal Reserve may need to stop cutting interest rates.Yardeni pointed out that the U.S. economy is performing robustly, and his company, Yardeni Research, has always held a positive view on the dollar. A few months ago, due to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened, which Yardeni believes would be a mistake. He added that the performance of the U.S. Treasury market and the dollar supports this view. He believes that by stopping or reducing interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve will help maintain the strength of the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of PPI and initial jobless claims data, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, and U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell slightly; traders are still betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Fed's Logan stated that the Fed "very likely" needs to cut rates further, but should "proceed with caution."If the Fed over-cuts rates beyond neutral levels, inflation may accelerate again. The Fed has made "significant progress" in reducing inflation and restoring economic balance, making it difficult to determine how many rate cuts are needed and how quickly they should occur.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until December is 24.3%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 75.7% (before the CPI announcement, these were 37.9% and 62.1% respectively). The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 16.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 24.3% (before the CPI announcement, these were 26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6% respectively).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Wall Street Journal evaluates the U.S. CPI data and points out that although inflation data is stabilizing, it still seems possible for Federal Reserve policymakers to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their last meeting of the year next month. This is primarily because, despite the bumps along the way, inflation still appears to be on a cooling trend.Additionally, there remains a certain degree of "catch-up inflation" in the data. Federal Reserve officials also believe that the current short-term interest rate levels are restrictive, which means that without further rate cuts, the labor market may cool more than they expect, even putting the economy at risk of recession.That said, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the next consumer inflation report on December 11, one week ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. If the data is much stronger than what Federal Reserve officials hope for, they may choose to temporarily pause further rate cuts. This is especially true if the November employment report, scheduled for release on December 6, shows a rebound in employment, confirming that last month's slowdown was merely a reflection of hurricane and strike-related issues.

ChainCatcher News, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose as traders believe the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased. Traders have increased their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the pace of U.S. inflation slowdown seems to have lost momentum, which may raise questions about how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early next year. The market expects the U.S. CPI index for October to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, with some on Wall Street predicting a rise of 0.3%, which would match the largest increase in the past six months. Meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rate may rise from 2.4% to 2.6%, marking the first increase in eight months.However, even if the CPI inflation data for October is strong, Wall Street still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates again at its last meeting of the year in December. But January of next year will be when doubts begin to intensify.

ChainCatcher message, Fed's Harker states that the Fed must "pay very close attention" to financial technology.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, IG market strategists stated that Trump's election as President of the United States has directly led to a reduction in the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2025. The potential "red wave" means there is little resistance to his tax cuts and spending plans, coupled with his stance on raising tariffs.The strategist said, "Overall, this could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, and we might expect the Fed to be more cautious in its future easing process, indicating upward pressure on yields and a stronger dollar." Traders now believe there is a 68% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, compared to about 83% before Trump's victory.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, strategists including Teresa Ho from JPMorgan expect that, given the liquidity situation has returned to normal after the end of October, the Federal Reserve will end quantitative tightening (QT, i.e., balance sheet reduction) in the first quarter of 2025, earlier than the previously expected completion by the end of 2024.The supply of U.S. Treasury bills and repos has both increased, and money market funds are seeking to extend to longer maturities as expectations for easing diminish, drawing more funds from the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, since Trump has taken the lead in the prediction market and won his second term on Tuesday, the U.S. bond market has experienced a slight crash, leading to an increase in mortgage and other household borrowing costs. Fortunately, Trump has a clear way to mitigate this damage and start his term on a good note: he should announce that he fully trusts Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, whose term will last until May 2026, and commit to remaining silent on monetary policy issues.Powell had a brief conversation with reporter Victoria Guida:Guida: Some of Trump's advisors suggest you should resign. If he asks you to leave, would you go?Powell: No.Guida: Do you believe legally you don't have to leave?Powell: No, I don't have to.It is reported that Powell was not joking. Following these comments, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury initially fell by about 4 basis points, totaling a decline of 11 basis points for the day.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, as expected. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of over $1.3 billion on Thursday, and against this backdrop, traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects.Min Jung, an investment analyst at Presto Research, stated, "In the short term, $100,000 will become the next major focus level, as this number is symbolic and represents a change in digits. Looking ahead, we believe the U.S. may eventually incorporate Bitcoin into its balance sheet, perhaps as part of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' or something similar, but likely under a more low-key name. With that in mind, we believe Bitcoin's target is around $110,000."Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, said, "After the U.S. election results were announced, the leading cryptocurrency surged significantly, but it is currently holding at high levels, possibly consolidating its strength before the next round of increases. Overall, we maintain that the new highs have triggered a wave of strong growth, expected to rise to $100,000-$110,000 within 2-3 months without experiencing significant pullbacks." However, some traders warn of potential short-term pullbacks, although they remain generally bullish on BTC, indicating that post-election market adjustments and policy uncertainties could lead to short-term corrections.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, the Federal Reserve's "mouthpiece," Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos commented on the Fed's interest rate decision in November: "The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, but released more uncertainty about the pace of further rate cuts. The Fed is still trying to prevent the significant rate hikes of the past two and a half years from dragging down the economy. Within a similar timeframe, investors in the interest rate futures market have continuously lowered their expectations for the Fed's rate cuts over the next year.""According to Citibank, they now believe the Fed will lower rates to around 3.6% by 2026, compared to their estimate of 2.8% in September. Officials are trying to bring rates back to a more 'normal' or 'neutral' level, which neither stimulates nor slows economic growth, but they do not know what a normal rate is. Policies that promote economic activity or prices will also lead officials to conclude that they should maintain a moderately restrictive rate stance. This means they will keep rates slightly above normal or neutral levels."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: According to the law, the president is not allowed to fire or demote a Federal Reserve Board member.