ChainCatcher news, Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at tonight's meeting, and Fed Chair Powell may reiterate that there is no rush to cut rates. It is anticipated that the Fed will lower its GDP forecast for 2025, raise its inflation forecast, and acknowledge increased uncertainty.The dot plot is expected to show that the median expectation for two rate cuts this year remains unchanged, with risks leaning towards one rate cut. The Fed is expected to cut rates once in June, and due to inflation accelerating again, there will be no further cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that although the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this Wednesday is extremely low, any dovish signals from Powell could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's upward momentum. As the U.S. shifts from "fiscal dominance" (government spending driving growth) to deficit reduction pushed by Trump, the burden of policy has shifted back to monetary policy. While QCP does not expect an unexpected rate cut from the Federal Reserve, dovish signals could trigger upward momentum in the market.Macro volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX index retreating to around 20, and Bitcoin's volatility has also decreased, currently oscillating within the $80,000 to $85,000 range. In the absence of new tariff news, geopolitical issues have returned to focus. Gold prices have broken through $3,000, while Bitcoin continues to show a negative correlation.Historically, cryptocurrency prices tend to lag behind changes in global liquidity conditions. With the possible policy shift from the Federal Reserve and a new round of stimulus measures from Europe and China, Bitcoin may welcome a new round of upward trends after this adjustment.

ChainCatcher news, Tangent co-founder Jason Choi expressed the view that "in the absence of specific reasons (such as expectations for ETFs or Trump), the trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies (mainly Bitcoin) will generally be linked to the performance of the U.S. stock market. As a speculator primarily focused on cryptocurrencies, my fundamental view is that aggressive positions should not be taken based on macroeconomic factors, but an understanding of the macroeconomy should provide a reference for existing aggressive positions."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, several important economic data will be released next week, among which the U.S. February CPI data is the most anticipated by the market. On Wednesday, the U.S. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate will be announced. These data will directly impact the Federal Reserve's policy decisions at the meeting on March 18-19.In addition, this week there will also be important events such as U.S. President Trump meeting with American tech leaders, including executives from HP, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm, as well as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a speech by European Central Bank President Lagarde.

ChainCatcher news, Wintermute trader Jake O stated on social media that the cryptocurrency market can no longer trade in isolation and is currently in a macro-driven market environment.Jake O pointed out that this trend has repeatedly appeared throughout the market cycle, although it is not persistent, especially when the market fear index (VIX) is above 20. In this market environment, investors should pay extra attention to U.S. economic data and the dominant narratives in the market—currently mainly focused on tariff issues, which will drive marginal capital flows.

ChainCatcher news, according to Zerohedge, Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White analyzed that the market expects the U.S. to revalue its gold reserves to fund the purchase of cryptocurrencies. Although Trump announced over the weekend the establishment of a cryptocurrency strategic reserve fund, he did not address how to purchase these cryptocurrencies, leaving open the possibility of a revaluation of U.S. gold reserves.Recent comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant regarding the monetization of assets on the balance sheet pointed to a feasible way to finance a cryptocurrency fund: the U.S. could revalue its gold holdings. However, the revaluation of gold could either weaken or strengthen the dollar's reserve status, undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, and have significant implications.

ChainCatcher news, the Bitfinex Alpha report shows that Bitcoin fell by 17.39% in February, marking the worst February performance since 2014 and the second worst February in history. Since hitting bottom after the FTX collapse in November 2022, Bitcoin bull market corrections have typically ranged between 18-22%, but February saw a correction of 28.3% from January's historical high of $109,590, making it one of the most significant corrections since the end of the bear market.On March 2, U.S. President Trump announced the establishment of the U.S. Crypto Reserve Program, triggering a strong market rebound, with Bitcoin rising 20% from recent lows and a single-day increase of over 12%. However, subsequent sell-offs pushed the Bitcoin price back down to around $92,000. Bitfinex analysts believe that macroeconomic conditions (including the performance of the S&P 500 index) will significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming weeks before the details of the Crypto Reserve Program are announced.The report also points out that the U.S. economic situation is complex, with persistent inflation, declining consumer confidence, and slowing economic growth. January's personal consumption expenditure inflation data showed a year-over-year growth rate of 2.5%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Rising service costs and new import tariffs are expected to further affect the Federal Reserve's ability to adjust interest rates, reducing the likelihood of recent rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks . Live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that the most noteworthy event this week is the cryptocurrency summit to be held in the U.S. on March 7, where every move of Trump greatly influences the cryptocurrency market. This week is a macro big week, with impactful news almost every day. This Friday, in addition to the crypto summit, there are two significant data points: the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, which are very worth paying attention to. Moreover, the U.S. is about to switch to daylight saving time, making it more convenient to monitor the market. On Tuesday, Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. and Canada takes effect, and there are also important economic events on other days, creating rare trading opportunities driven by events.Cryptocurrency market outlook: The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly over the weekend, with a single tweet from Trump reversing the prolonged bearish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin has returned to the fluctuation zone of $94,000, and the sudden change in market conditions caught participants off guard, shifting market sentiment from very pessimistic to very optimistic. In terms of options, the volatile market has driven a rebound in implied volatility (IV) across all maturities, with the at-the-money IV for the current month rebounding to 55%, and short-term IV soaring to 70%. The intense market movements and the uncertainty brought by multiple economic events this week will likely keep the IV at a relatively high level, but buying options remains very cost-effective.Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially during market movements, which are worth paying special attention to.

ChainCatcher news: After the U.S. inflation data met expectations on Friday, the dollar held near a two-week high, and the argument between Trump and Zelensky also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasury bonds recorded their strongest start to a year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which approached 4.8% in January, now close to 4.2%, and the two-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% during the day for the first time in four months. U.S. stocks nearly erased their gains for 2025 but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing the losses for the second consecutive week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:Monday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI finalMonday 23:00: U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. January Construction Spending MoMTuesday 21:50: 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaksWednesday 3:20: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks at Bloomberg Investment ForumWednesday 21:15: U.S. February ADP Employment ChangeWednesday 22:45: U.S. February S&P Global Services PMI finalThursday 1:00: Federal Reserve releases Beige BookThursday 20:30: U.S. February Challenger Job CutsThursday 21:30: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 1Friday 21:30: U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings YoY and MoMFriday 23:45: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Bowman participate in a panel discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business organized U.S. Monetary Policy ForumU.S. February nonfarm payroll data will be released on Friday, which could be a key indicator affecting the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data that Federal Reserve officials will receive before their next policy meeting on March 18-19. After cutting rates by 100 basis points in three consecutive meetings at the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep rates steady in this year's second consecutive meeting.