ChainCatcher message, the important macro data to be released in the U.S. next week is as follows:Wednesday night at 21:30U.S. December unadjusted CPI year-on-year, expected 2.90%, previous value 2.70%;U.S. December adjusted CPI month-on-month, expected 0.30%, previous value 0.30%.Thursday night at 21:30U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 11 (ten thousand), previous value 20.1;U.S. December retail sales month-on-month, expected 0.50%, previous value 0.70%.

ChainCatcher news, the Matrixport weekly report points out that macroeconomic headwinds and changes in global liquidity may lead Bitcoin into a consolidation phase. Although ETF inflows remain stable, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may limit further gains.The report suggests that Bitcoin's upward momentum is more influenced by Federal Reserve policies rather than the launch of ETFs. Technical analysis shows that the "shooting star" candlestick pattern indicates that the mid-term upward trend may be nearing its end.In a context of low implied volatility, options are seen as effective risk management tools. Traders can capture upward opportunities through call options or protect profits with put options.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, Bitcoin is facing downward pressure in the short term due to macroeconomic changes and market sentiment. Despite breaking through the historical high of $108,000 last December, Bitcoin is currently retracing due to a stronger dollar, increased volatility, and cautious trader attitudes. Joe McCann, founder and CEO of Asymmetric, stated that market signals such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish press conference on December 18 and the significant rise in the Volatility Index (VIX) have increased the probability of short-term declines. He believes that while the outlook is bearish in the short term, the long-term perspective remains bullish.In addition, the unexpected strengthening of the Dollar Index (DXY) has also become a focal point. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the DXY broke through long-standing resistance levels, reflecting market dynamics of global liquidity constraints and safe-haven demand. Singaporean crypto trading firm QCP Capital pointed out in a report to investors that although favorable regulatory narratives support the spot market, the market environment at the beginning of January may be unstable, as structural risks such as the debt ceiling issue could trigger market volatility. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's performance will continue to be closely related to Federal Reserve policies and the performance of the dollar. The short-term adjustment provides investors with a buying opportunity on dips, but market volatility may pose challenges for investors.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, Bitcoin is facing downward pressure in the short term due to macroeconomic changes and market sentiment. Despite breaking through the historical high of $108,000 in December last year, Bitcoin has recently retraced due to a stronger dollar, increased volatility, and cautious trader attitudes. Joe McCann, founder and CEO of Asymmetric, stated that market signals such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish press conference on December 18 and the significant rise in the volatility index (VIX) have increased the probability of short-term declines. He believes that while the short-term outlook is bearish, the long-term remains bullish.Additionally, the unexpected strength of the Dollar Index (DXY) has become a focal point. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the DXY broke through long-standing resistance levels, reflecting market dynamics of global liquidity constraints and safe-haven demand. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted in a report to investors that while favorable regulatory narratives support the spot market, the market environment at the beginning of January may be unstable, as structural risks such as the debt ceiling issue could trigger market volatility. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's performance will continue to be closely related to Federal Reserve policies and the dollar's performance. The short-term adjustment provides investors with a buying opportunity on dips, but market volatility may pose challenges for investors.

ChainCatcher message indicates that, according to SoSoValue data, the encrypted market sector is generally retreating due to macro factors, while the PayFi and CeFi sectors are relatively resilient, retreating by -3.56% and -3.82% respectively. Notably, in the CeFi sector, Bitget Token (BGB) rose against the trend by 5.93%, with a monthly return rate and annual return rate reaching 164.23% and 940.47% respectively.SoSo Value analysts stated that the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI for December and the number of job vacancies for November released today both exceeded expectations, demonstrating the strength of the U.S. economy and the resilience of employment. This has led the market to begin betting on no interest rate cuts or even rate hikes in the first half of 2025, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise sharply to 4.7%, resulting in price corrections in risk assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies.In other sectors, the Layer 1 sector fell by -6.95%, the DePIN sector fell by -8.43%, the DeFi sector fell by -9.46%, the Layer 2 sector fell by -9.47%, and the Meme sector retreated by -10.81%. Additionally, the AI Agents sector, which saw significant gains yesterday, fell by -10.25% today.

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise released the Bitcoin Macro Investor Report for January 2025, indicating that the crypto market will face macro headwinds such as profit-taking and reduced institutional exposure in December 2024. The appreciation of the dollar and adjustments in Federal Reserve policy have led to a tightening financial environment, but Bitcoin still receives support from on-chain data.Despite short-term risks, long-term favorable factors such as the Bitcoin halving and strategic reserves support expectations for significant price appreciation, with projections that it will outperform traditional assets in 2025 and beyond. Although the Federal Reserve's December meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, it hinted that future rates may be higher than expected. The decline in global liquidity and the strengthening dollar pose pressure on Bitcoin, which remains correlated with traditional markets like the S&P 500.On the on-chain front, demand from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and retail investors has created a supply gap for Bitcoin. While some on-chain activities have cooled, key indicators such as declining exchange balances and rising hash rates show that market resilience remains strong.

ChainCatcher news, this week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the long-anticipated "pivot" by the market. The central bank's statement and update on economic forecasts this week had a significant impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its historical high, and on Friday during the European session, Bitcoin continued its downward trend, approaching $95,000 at one point. Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and this round of decline in the crypto market has had a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin.Additionally, U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin also ended a 15-day streak of inflows this week, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, according to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector is experiencing a widespread decline, with nearly half of the sectors dropping over 10%. Specifically, BTC and ETH fell by 5.14% and 6.11% respectively in the last 24 hours. The CeFi sector dropped by 5.17%, while the NFT sector, which rose over 20% yesterday, fell by 6.01%.In addition, the Layer 1 sector declined by 8.14%, the Layer 2 sector by 9.37%, the DeFi sector by 10.55%, the Meme sector by 11.33%, and the DePIN and PayFi sectors dropped by 11.48% and 11.69% respectively.Despite the overall market decline, some projects performed well, such as the NFT sector Pudgy Penguins (Pengu) which rose by 9.54%, Moca Coin (MOCA) which increased by 10.25%, and AI Agents' AI Rig Complex (ARC) which surged by 54.22%.SoSoValue analysts suggest that the widespread decline in the cryptocurrency market may be influenced by today's Federal Reserve meeting, which adjusted the pace of interest rate cuts for next year (from 4 times to 2 times), the upward revision of future core PCE inflation rates and GDP growth, as well as Powell's more hawkish statements than the market expected, leading to panic regarding liquidity expectations.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam stated that this Thursday, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will successively announce their interest rate decisions. The market unanimously expects a 25% rate cut from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan has a 20% chance of raising rates this week, which is of greater concern to the market. The recent severe depreciation of the yen has put significant pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates. As the main target in the foreign exchange arbitrage market, a rate hike will inevitably bring liquidity pressure to the market.It is highly likely that all decisions will be favorable for the macro market, and there is hope for a surge to $110,000 this week. The main players in the options market are also increasing their positions in options for the end of the year, targeting $110,000 to $120,000.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Bitcoin recently faced $1.5 billion in long liquidations, with the price plummeting by 3,000 points before rebounding at the critical support level of $95,000, currently consolidating in the $97,000-$98,000 range. This round of correction has also affected many altcoins.In terms of institutional entry, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows for 8 and 11 consecutive days, respectively. Mining company Riot Platforms announced it would follow MicroStrategy's strategy, planning to issue $500 million in zero-coupon convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin, a plan that has already garnered strong market demand. Notably, Microsoft shareholders will vote today on incorporating Bitcoin into the balance sheet. Although the board recommends against it, approval could lead to an unexpected surge. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Amazon shareholders are also pushing for Bitcoin to be used as a reserve asset.QCP points out that with the political situation stabilizing in France and South Korea, and China's commitment to launching economic stimulus policies, macro market volatility has eased. Bitcoin and Ethereum's short-term volatility remains high and leans towards put options. Analysts believe that a breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold for Bitcoin still requires key catalysts.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that established cryptocurrencies have experienced a significant upward trend in the past two weeks since 2021. XRP has broken through its historical high of $2 in February 2021, surging 400% to $2.90 since November. During the same period, veteran projects like ADA, HBAR, and XLM recorded increases of 300%, 800%, and 600% respectively, showcasing the strong momentum of traditional crypto assets.This round of increase is mainly driven by two factors: first, Trump's proposal in November to eliminate capital gains tax on cryptocurrencies issued by U.S. companies; second, potential pro-crypto cabinet nominees. It is reported that current Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick may take over as Secretary of Commerce, as his company is currently in negotiations with Tether. Meanwhile, the SEC chair position may be taken over by pro-crypto Paul Atkins, replacing current chair Gary Gensler.Although South Korea's implementation of martial law temporarily caused Bitcoin to drop to $93,500, the subsequent rapid rebound in the market indicates strong buying power. The report notes that while inflation concerns have compressed the expectation for three Fed rate cuts by 2025, and geopolitical risks from Trump regarding China, Mexico, Canada, and BRICS countries still exist, the cryptocurrency market is still expected to continue its upward trend.Analysts believe that with the potential launch of crypto-friendly policies by Trump's team and the continued entry of institutional investors, the goal of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and Ethereum reaching new historical highs is shifting from a dream to reality. Investors are advised to pay attention to the strong market momentum and seize investment opportunities.