Guosheng Macro: The recent significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may strengthen the market's recession expectations

ChainCatcher news, the Guosheng Macro team stated that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, slightly exceeding market expectations. However, Powell's speech was hawkish, stating that this rate cut is not the norm. The dot plot indicates another 50bp cut within the year, while the market expects a total of 75bp cuts this year. Considering historical patterns and the asset performance after this meeting, this significant rate cut should have reinforced market concerns about a U.S. economic recession. It is inclined to believe that, given the time needed to falsify recession expectations and the upcoming U.S. elections on 11/5, major asset prices may experience significant volatility in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent U.S. data can confirm or falsify recession expectations, as well as the progress of the elections. (Jinshi)