Matrixport Research: BTC volatility exceeds average levels, macroeconomic data intensifies market concerns about a U.S. economic recession

Since June 21, the price of BTC has dropped by 12%, showing a trend similar to previous years, where crypto assets tend to decline in the summer and then experience increased volatility. Additionally, several key upcoming events will significantly impact BTC market dynamics. Major events shaping market expectations include the release of the U.S. employment report on September 6 (Friday), the presidential debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 (Tuesday), and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decision on September 18 (Wednesday).

U.S. Small Non-Farm Payroll Data Hits Lowest Growth in Three Years, Labor Market Risks Become the Focus

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows that the number of job openings in U.S. companies in July was at its lowest level since early 2021; according to Jin10, the number of new jobs added by U.S. companies last month was the lowest since early 2021; ADP data shows that private sector employment increased by 99,000 in August, with last month's growth revised down, and the latest data fell below all expectations. Multiple indicators show that the U.S. labor market is shifting to slow growth, and labor market risks have become a key focus for the Federal Reserve.

CME tools indicate that the market expects a 49% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve has turned positive for the second time in 22 years, further intensifying concerns about a U.S. economic recession.

Trump Promises to Embrace Cryptocurrency, Artificial Intelligence, and Other "Future Industries"

This Thursday, Donald Trump outlined his plan to reform the U.S. economy after re-election during a public speech at the New York Economic Club, including cutting regulations and promoting the growth of domestic energy production. Trump also stated that he would adopt Elon Musk's suggestion to establish a government efficiency committee responsible for auditing federal government spending, identifying waste, and proposing leadership for that committee.

Regarding the crypto asset sector, Trump stated that if elected president again, he would make the U.S. the world capital of cryptocurrency and embrace cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and other "future industries."

BTC 30-Day Realized Volatility Rises to 62%, Exceeding 58% Long-Term Average Volatility

Recently, BTC's 30-day realized volatility has risen to 62%, surpassing the long-term average volatility of 58%. Historically, periods where realized volatility exceeds 70% are usually brief, often providing profit opportunities for traders selling implied volatility at high levels. In contrast, buying volatility is only relatively profitable when realized volatility falls below 30%.

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Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.