ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that he does not rule out the possibility of stagflation, although confidence in easing inflation is growing.Dimon warned at the Institutional Investor Committee's fall meeting in Brooklyn, New York, that despite signs of economic cooling, serious risks remain. He said, "I think the worst outcome is stagflation—economic recession, higher inflation... I would not rule out that possibility." Dimon expressed concerns about potential ongoing inflationary pressures, citing factors such as increased government spending and rising deficits. He pointed out that while inflation data is improving, indicators like employment and manufacturing show the economy is under pressure. He warned, "These are all inflationary, basically in the short term, for the next few years (continuing)." He emphasized that despite some positive economic signals, significant uncertainty remains, and inflationary pressures could weigh on the U.S. economy.Dimon has consistently warned about an economic slowdown, noting in August that the likelihood of a "soft landing" is only 35% to 40%, indicating that a recession may be the more likely outcome. He highlighted various uncertainties, including geopolitical issues, housing, and spending. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession this year.

ChainCatcher message, data released on Tuesday by a U.S. nonprofit and nonpartisan research organization indicates that the economic indicators in the U.S. still point to an economic slowdown, but no longer suggest a recession. This is a positive signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.The organization's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.6% in July to 100.4, following a 0.2% decline in June. The index peaked in the second quarter of 2022 and has been declining since then. The LEI includes several forward-looking indicators, such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, the average number of initial unemployment insurance claims, the ISM new orders index, stock prices, and the leading credit index.It helps identify changes in economic trends and turning points in financial markets and is considered one of the most reliable signals for predicting recessions—defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The continued decline of the LEI suggests that the economy is facing impending headwinds.However, the annualized six-month change rate for July narrowed to -2.1%, compared to -3.1% in June, indicating that the risk of recession is diminishing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a U.S. economic recession from 25% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news indicates that the Japanese yen rose slightly against the US dollar on Friday, but is expected to record its largest weekly decline since June. This follows the release of a series of economic data from the United States that eased concerns about a recession and supported bets on a gradual easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, stated: "We believe that economic growth is slowing, inflation is also slowing, and the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates, but there will not be a panic situation. Just a week or two ago, panic was still spreading. We still believe that we will see 2 to 3 rate cuts, most likely 2 rather than 3, unless we see a continued rise in the unemployment rate as seen in the last employment report." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com, global investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised the likelihood of an economic recession in the U.S. next year from the previous 15% to 25%, although they maintain that the risks remain limited.Led by Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs economists believe that the overall economic outlook is stable, there are no severe financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has the capacity to quickly cut interest rates if necessary. Goldman Sachs' forecast indicates that the Federal Reserve will consecutively cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, while JPMorgan and Citigroup predict a more aggressive 50 basis point cut in September. They believe that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely unless job growth in August is as weak as in July.Additionally, Goldman Sachs expects that the labor market will not deteriorate rapidly due to strong job demand and the absence of significant economic shocks.

ChainCatcher message, cryptocurrency analyst Alex Krüger posted on social media: "The current market crash is clearly driven by macro factors, rather than being specific to the cryptocurrency industry. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that the main driving factor is not the collapse of the U.S. economy (discussions about a U.S. recession heated up after last Friday's employment data).It seems that the policy mistake was not the Federal Reserve's failure to cut rates quickly enough, but rather the Fed's decision not to cut rates when Japan raised its rates. This statement does seem a bit 'hindsight', and we now need U.S. economic data to confirm this.The chart shows the starting point of last week's sell-off, which was right after the FOMC statement last Wednesday. It coincided with the opening time of the Nikkei index.A financial crisis primarily triggered by a large number of Japanese leveraged speculators is much better than one caused by a recession in the U.S.As for U.S. data, the current focus is on the labor market, so special attention should be paid to this Thursday's initial jobless claims (which are usually not market-moving data), as well as the state employment data to be released on August 16 (State Employment data, which provides detailed state-level employment data and is rarely focused on by the market)."

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone announced the latest issue of the "Crypto Outlook" report on Twitter, which points out that even if BlackRock's application for a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, it will not be launched within 2023.In addition, McGlone noted that the Federal Reserve has already announced in the recent FOMC meeting that it will "raise interest rates a few more times" this year, combined with weakening liquidity and a potential bear market in stocks, the crypto market will still face upward resistance. He also stated that, given the Federal Reserve, economic recession, Nasdaq, and many other factors, the ETF launched by BlackRock may not protect Bitcoin from the impact of the impending U.S. economic recession in the coming months. (source link)