ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan has revised its forecast for the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year from three to two. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that given the latest non-farm payroll data (strong), the Federal Reserve is expected to make the next interest rate cut in June, whereas the previous forecast was for March.

ChainCatcher news, according to Ledger Insights, ten institutions have completed a simulation trial of the Regulatory Settlement Network (RSN), exploring the use of a shared DLT network to settle tokenized transactions. In addition to the previous experiments settling tokenized commercial bank funds and tokenized central bank funds on the same network, this experiment also featured tokenized government bonds and investment-grade bonds on the shared ledger. The institutions participating in the experiment include Citibank, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Swift, TD Bank NA, Bank of America, USDF, Wells Fargo, Visa, and Zions Bancorp.The shared institutional network for tokenized assets has garnered attention for several reasons. If tokenized treasury bills are settled using central bank funds on the same ledger, then settlement risk is almost completely eliminated. Smart contracts enable automation and straight-through processing. The always-online network allows for settlements outside of working hours and batch cut-off times. This could be particularly convenient for assisting overseas clients.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bill Aigen, a bond expert at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned the market ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting that the room for interest rate cuts may not be as large as it imagines, and central banks around the world should be cautious about cutting rates again in December.He added that this is due to some signs indicating that the U.S. economy is starting to heat up again, including strong GDP growth, slightly higher-than-expected inflation data from last month, and record stock prices. Wage, service, and housing inflation appear particularly tricky and may even rise. Housing prices remain one of the biggest drivers of inflation in October, rising 4.9% year-on-year. The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 75 basis points so far this year and may be closer to the neutral rate than it believes.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan stated in a research report that the expansion of leveraged MicroStrategy (MSTR) ETF size and the funds it attracts have a more pronounced impact on the company's stock and the crypto market than before. The bank noted that these ETFs played a significant role in the nearly 60% increase of the stock in November. The report mentioned that the total inflow of funds into U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC), spot Ethereum (ETH), and leveraged MicroStrategy ETFs in November reached nearly $11 billion, setting a new record, with the leveraged MSTR ETF accounting for $3.4 billion, nearly one-third of the total.Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote, "This highlights the growing influence of MicroStrategy's leveraged ETF in the cryptocurrency market by facilitating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchasing program."

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan recently released a report evaluating the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) established by incoming President Trump, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, aimed at streamlining federal operations and cutting wasteful spending.The report stated: "In terms of government efficiency, Trump is expected to push an agenda that advocates for reducing red tape. This includes the establishment of a new Department of Government Efficiency," and added: "We believe that this department will find it difficult to achieve this."JPMorgan explained the reasons why DOGE may encounter obstacles: "Ultimately, Congress controls government spending, and DOGE is outside of Congress. The department can propose all the suggestions it wants, but in the end, it is the typical 60-vote majority in Congress that decides legislative changes."The report concluded: "One of the key questions for investors in 2025 is which parts of the Trump 2.0 agenda will be emphasized and which parts will gradually fade."

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, payment giant Mastercard (MA) has integrated its blockchain-based tokenized asset transfer system Multi-Token Network (MTN) with JPMorgan's recently renamed digital asset business Kinexys (formerly known as Onyx). This collaboration aims to enhance B2B cross-border payments, "providing greater transparency and faster settlement speeds while reducing time zone friction."Tokenized foreign exchange is an attractive subset of the real-world asset trend based on blockchain, which has been firmly embraced by traditional finance as it offers an almost real-time, always-online way to avoid cross-border gaps and pain points. The two companies stated in a joint announcement that by integrating Mastercard MTN with Kinexys digital payment connectivity, MTN and Kinexys' mutual clients will be able to settle B2B transactions through a single API.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the elected President Trump and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon clearly stated on Thursday that they will not work together in the government. Dimon said, "I wish the president all the best, I haven't had a boss for 25 years, and I'm not planning to have one now." It is reported that this is Dimon's first public statement since the U.S. election.About 30 minutes before Dimon's speech, Trump posted on Truth Social to clarify rumors: "I have great respect for Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, but he will not be invited to join the Trump administration, thank you Jamie for your outstanding service to our country." So far, Trump has largely filled his cabinet with his closest supporters and excluded any recently voiced criticisms.

ChainCatcher message, Trump stated on the social media platform Truth Social, "I have great respect for JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, but he will not be invited to join the Trump administration. I appreciate Jamie's outstanding contributions to our country."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the JPMorgan market team believes that inflation data is more likely to show signs of warming rather than cooling. Nevertheless, they think that this week's hotter data is unlikely to derail the risk appetite tone, and investors are also unlikely to fixate on a single data point, as there is one more CPI data release before the December Federal Reserve meeting.However, the team reminds investors that Powell has shifted the Federal Reserve's focus from the labor market to weighing the dual mandate of employment and inflation. "If CPI and even retail sales data show a stronger economic growth trajectory while also stimulating inflation, then we need to pay attention to what might happen in the future."In JPMorgan's view, investors are unlikely to shift to a cautious portfolio stance until they see the overall CPI year-on-year reaching 3.5% (which is a credible threat to the Federal Reserve). They believe that the Federal Reserve will only take tightening action if the inflation rate returns to or exceeds 4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to a post by Cointelegraph on the X platform, former JPMorgan Chief Equity Strategist and co-founder and research head of FundStrat Global Advisors Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin could become a "treasury reserve asset" to help offset the U.S. deficit.Additionally, Bitcoin still has the potential to reach $100,000 this year, with significant upside potential.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, strategists including Teresa Ho from JPMorgan expect that, given the liquidity situation has returned to normal after the end of October, the Federal Reserve will end quantitative tightening (QT, i.e., balance sheet reduction) in the first quarter of 2025, earlier than the previously expected completion by the end of 2024.The supply of U.S. Treasury bills and repos has both increased, and money market funds are seeking to extend to longer maturities as expectations for easing diminish, drawing more funds from the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility.

ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, JPMorgan stated that the election results have reduced the risk of intense debates surrounding the U.S. debt ceiling in the first half of 2025 and alleviated uncertainties regarding the evolution of the Treasury General Account (TGA). The debt ceiling has been suspended until January 1, 2025, after which the Treasury will begin to utilize extraordinary measures and its cash balance to meet its debt obligations.JPMorgan believes that assuming the Treasury's TGA forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is $700 billion, and with a slight increase in extraordinary measures, the Treasury is unlikely to exhaust its resources and face the risk of a technical default before July 2025.

According to ChainCatcher news reported by CoinDesk, JPMorgan Chase has announced the renaming of its Onyx division, which focuses on tokenization and blockchain, to Kinexys. The bank plans to launch on-chain foreign exchange capabilities as early as the first quarter of 2025, enabling 24/7 automated multi-currency settlements.JPMorgan's JPM Coin blockchain settlement technology has also been renamed to Kinexys Digital Payments. Users of the platform include global companies such as Siemens, BlackRock, and Ant International.JPMorgan stated that with the increase in transaction volume, higher customer adoption rates, and product expansion, they are ready to accelerate the application of blockchain technology and tokenization in mainstream financial services. The new on-chain foreign exchange feature will initially support USD and EUR, with plans to expand to other currencies in the future.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan CEO Dimon has no plans to take a position in the Trump administration, and he will continue to stay at the bank.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Information, industry insiders say that investment bankers from top Wall Street firms like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have been meeting with cryptocurrency executives, hoping to gain insights into potential initial public offerings (IPOs) that cryptocurrency companies may pursue after the elections. This enthusiasm reflects optimism about improved market and regulatory conditions following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, which could pave the way for companies like Kraken, Fireblocks, and Chainalysis to go public.It is reported that bankers' interest in the meetings is also different from much of the past two years, during which many investment banks considered the risks associated with cryptocurrency companies too high to engage in business.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts believe that considering the previous statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a reasonable rate of interest rate cuts should be 25 basis points. Coupled with the relatively stable economic data performance over the past two months, although the October non-farm payrolls weakened significantly, it was largely affected by one-off factors. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week remains a high probability event, rather than a further 50 basis point cut or no cut at all.Currently, the market has basically priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with a probability of 97.6%, while the probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 68.4%. Currently, the main institutions' analysis views on rate cuts are:Goldman Sachs: A continuous cut of 25 basis points is needed;JPMorgan Chase: Rate cuts still hold up;Deutsche Bank: The election will not affect the Federal Reserve's decision this week.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, JPMorgan estimates the chances of Trump winning the U.S. election at 60% to 70%, and predicts that if the Republicans achieve a "Red Sweep," the dollar will rise by 5%; while if the U.S. Congress is divided between the two parties, the dollar will rise by 1.5% to 2%.

ChainCatcher news, Judy Dimon, the wife of well-known political donor and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon, campaigned in Michigan over the weekend, urging voters to support Kamala Harris's presidential run.Jamie Dimon himself has declined to publicly endorse any candidate and has promised to work with whoever is elected. Earlier this year, Trump posted a picture on his social media page claiming to have Jamie Dimon's support, but JPMorgan Chase quickly denied it. (Golden Ten)

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan Asset Management's Chief Global Strategist David Kelly stated that if Trump wins the U.S. election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. This is because Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will drive up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. Kelly pointed out that if the Republicans achieve a significant victory with Trump's win, more expansionary fiscal policies may emerge, potentially triggering trade wars, widening the deficit, and leading to higher interest rates. On the other hand, Kelly indicated that if Vice President Harris wins, the economy may continue on its soft landing trajectory. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve may stick to its expected easing policy path.