ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate for the United States in Q3 2024 is 2.8%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3.0%, and a slight decline from 3.0% in Q2, but still a remarkable result. In terms of components, personal consumption expenditures are strong, corporate equipment investment is expanding, and exports and government spending are accelerating, indicating that the U.S. economic growth remains healthy. Relatively weaker are real estate investment and construction investment, showing that high interest rates are still having a suppressive effect.In addition, inflation further declined in Q3, suggesting that the U.S. economy is heading towards a soft landing. We believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant rate cuts for now, expecting a 25 basis point cut next week, while whether to skip a rate cut in December will depend on inflation developments.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan now believes that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession by the end of this year is 35%, up from 25% at the beginning of last month.Economists at JPMorgan, led by Bruce Kasman, wrote in a report to clients on Wednesday that U.S. data "suggests that labor demand is weakening more sharply than expected, with early signs of layoffs emerging." The team maintains a 45% probability of a recession occurring by the second half of 2025.Kasman and his colleagues wrote, "We have moderately raised our assessment of recession risks, while the adjustment to our interest rate outlook is more significant."JPMorgan now believes that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve and other central banks keeping interest rates high for an extended period is only 30%, down from a predicted 50% two months ago. As inflation pressures in the U.S. decline, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen pointed out that there have been some positive signs in the cryptocurrency market recently, including institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs and the BTC price withstanding the impact of Mt. Gox's return of billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin.At the same time, 10x Research predicts that the recent decline in Bitcoin prices may just be the beginning of a larger drop, as the weak ISM report has impacted risk assets. Historically, when the ISM index peaks, Bitcoin tends to experience significant pullbacks (Note: The full English name of the ISM index is "Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index," which is an important data point released by the Institute for Supply Management that significantly reflects the prosperity of the U.S. economy and the trend of the U.S. dollar).10x Research noted that if the stock market follows the downward trend of the ISM index and even begins to anticipate an impending economic recession, the stock market could see significant declines in the coming quarters, which would also have a major negative impact on Bitcoin. If this occurs, Bitcoin prices could potentially return to the $50,000 level or even decline further.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Coinbase released a weekly report stating that the U.S. economy may peak in the second quarter of 2024. If the U.S. economy subsequently falls into recession, retail investors may be reluctant to hold new stock or cryptocurrency positions.Additionally, the report noted that regardless of which candidate wins, the U.S. elections in November could trigger more fiscal expansion. "This is a strong incentive to buy Bitcoin as an alternative to the traditional financial system."