BCA Research: Trump's return to the White House could trigger four major "black swan" events, with U.S. stocks expected to plummet by up to 26% this year

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Wall Street research firm BCA Research's latest report indicates that Trump's return to the White House in 2025 could trigger four major "black swan" events.

First, Trump may reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran, alleviating global oil supply concerns, but BCA still expects a 75% probability of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran in 2025.

Second, Trump may shake U.S. commitments to NATO, leading to a decline in the euro and an increase in risk premiums for Eastern European assets. Third, the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border may escalate; if the U.S. takes military action, it could trigger a security crisis, while a tariff war could push inflation higher. Finally, countries may coordinate to intervene in the foreign exchange market in response to U.S. tariff threats, leading to a significant depreciation of the dollar.

BCA is one of the most bearish firms on Wall Street. In its previous reports, the company reiterated its recession forecast and predicted that U.S. stocks could plummet by as much as 26% this year.