ChainCatcher news, UOB economist Alvin Liew stated that the Bank of Japan has not finished raising interest rates, but the timing of future hikes is now expected to be influenced by wage growth next year and the clarity of Trump’s policies. This means that while the possibility of a rate hike in January is not completely ruled out, it now appears to be a low-probability event.Although the policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference did not provide forward guidance, Ueda emphasized that the wage increase situation in Japan in 2025 and considerations regarding Trump’s policies are key to the next decision. UOB expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% in March, which the bank believes will be the terminal rate. However, there is a significant risk that the rate hike could be postponed to April or later.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, multiple Wall Street institutions warn that the risk of a rebound in U.S. inflation in 2025 is increasing. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius predicts that if Trump's tariff proposal is implemented, it could push the core PCE index, which the Federal Reserve focuses on, up by nearly 1%. Anders Persson, CIO of Nuveen Global Fixed Income, which manages $1.3 trillion in assets, stated that inflation rates may remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for the next 12 months and even for several years; in the worst-case scenario, the Federal Reserve may be forced to pivot 180 degrees and restart interest rate hikes, leading to more severe stagflation.The market expects that the CPI data for November, to be released this Wednesday, will continue to rise, with the core CPI annual rate possibly remaining above 2% until October next year. Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics, pointed out that if the CPI data exceeds expectations and the previous values are revised upward, it could change policymakers' assessment of inflation and affect the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. In the current situation, Nuveen recommends focusing on fixed income assets, expecting that U.S. Treasury yields will provide substantial returns over the next 12 months; if the economy falls into stagflation, cash may become the best-performing asset class.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan analysts expect that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in April and October 2025. By the end of 2025, the policy interest rate is expected to be increased to 1.0%. The Bank of Japan may raise rates twice to 1.5% in 2026. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, the former executive director of the Bank of Japan responsible for monetary policy stated that Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election has increased uncertainty for the Bank of Japan, and if the trend of a weaker yen further expands, it could become a potential catalyst for a rate hike in the near future.Former Bank of Japan official Kazuo Momma said in an interview on Thursday: "The U.S. election has led to increased uncertainty, not just for the Bank of Japan, but for everyone globally. The only reason the Bank of Japan might consider raising rates early could be a rapid depreciation of the yen."Momma believes that a yen-to-dollar exchange rate falling to 160 could be a key threshold for policymakers, but the timing of any exchange rate changes will also depend on the level of public discontent.

ChainCatcher news, Moody's analyst Stefan Angrick stated that the Bank of Japan's economic outlook is relatively hawkish. The forecasts for economic growth and inflation indicate that the bank is still likely to raise interest rates in the near future. Aside from a slight upward revision of the growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 and a slight downward revision of the inflation forecast, these predictions have changed little.Angrick stated, "The Bank of Japan believes that the Japanese economy has moderately recovered, with growth above the potential growth rate." He added that the Bank of Japan indicated that consumption is on a "moderate growth trend," which differs from the "resilience" wording used in July. He noted that these cautiously optimistic assessments contradict the poor data from the past year. "The Japanese economy is stagnating, and evidence of demand-driven price pressures remains scant."

ChainCatcher News: The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, while reiterating its commitment to achieving stable inflation and economic growth.Most observers of the Bank of Japan were not surprised by Thursday's decision, as the central bank's governor had expressed increasing concerns about the uncertain global economic outlook well in advance. He also indicated that the Bank of Japan has time to analyze risk factors, suggesting that the bank will continue to act cautiously.In the quarterly outlook released on Thursday, the Bank of Japan stated that it expects inflation to remain around the 2% target in the coming years. This closely watched report will bolster expectations that policymakers will soon raise interest rates again. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher message, CICC pointed out in the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the U.S. Economy": "Under the ordinary assumption scenario, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow down, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. In an extreme assumption scenario, the Federal Reserve's stance will turn 'hawkish' and restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation rising back above 5%."The article further states: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be above inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025."

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey shows that although nearly 90% of economists still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by the end of March next year, a slight majority of economists believe that the Bank of Japan will abandon further rate hikes this year. The published survey results highlight the challenges the Bank of Japan faces in advancing policy normalization, as most central banks globally tend to favor rate cuts, and there is uncertainty regarding the new political leadership's preferences for monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, after the widely expected decision by the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates, investors are now waiting for a press conference later today by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to see if his stance on seeking further rate hikes has changed.Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a research report: "As the Federal Reserve shifts towards easing monetary policy, some market participants are eager to see if there will be any changes in this stance." They also noted that Ueda's views on the recent appreciation of the yen and its impact on the economy and prices are worth paying attention to. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to maintain the key overnight lending rate at 0.25% this week, while the December meeting may be more interesting.Among the 36 economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research, 19 expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in December. Before the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, the bank will focus on key indicators to assess whether the economy is on track, including the Bank of Japan's September and December Tankan surveys, third-quarter GDP data, and corporate earnings for the quarter. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to informed sources, Bank of Japan officials believe there is no need to raise the benchmark interest rate at next week's meeting, as they are still monitoring the ongoing volatility in the financial markets and the impact of the rate hike in July. Informed sources said that while officials are closely watching the market, their position is that if the economy and inflation continue to meet expectations, the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates.They stated that so far, the recent market turmoil has not significantly affected the views presented in the bank's quarterly outlook report in July. Therefore, officials do not rule out the possibility of another rate hike later this year or in early 2025, depending on the state of the economy and financial markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has rebounded above $59,000, but the momentum has weakened due to hints of further interest rate hikes in Japan. However, according to the CoinDesk20 index, BTC is still up 1% in the past 24 hours, while the broader cryptocurrency market has risen by about 0.9%.A series of U.S. economic data will be released this week, starting with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) later on Tuesday. Weak data will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which is expected to boost riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation develop as expected. Ueda stated that the economic environment remains accommodative, and even after the benchmark borrowing cost was raised at the end of July, the inflation-adjusted rate remains negative. This is the first time in decades, triggering a closure of yen carry trades and leading to instability in risk assets.

ChainCatcher News, a document submitted by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to a government panel shows that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price performance meets expectations. Ueda submitted the document on Tuesday to explain the Bank of Japan's policy decision in July to the government's economic and fiscal policy panel, chaired by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. After the news that Ueda maintained his stance on interest rate hikes, the yen strengthened slightly against the dollar to around 146.20. The document indicates that Ueda believes the economic environment remains accommodative, as real interest rates are still significantly negative, even after the rate hike in July. The document also notes that due to the economic and price trends aligning with the central bank's projected outlook, and the upward risks to prices, the central bank adjusted its easing level in July. Pacific Investment Management Company's Japanese subsidiary expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again as early as January next year. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher message, former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai stated that given the recent market turmoil after the interest rate hike, and the low likelihood of a rapid recovery in the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan will not be able to raise interest rates again this year, and it is still uncertain whether they can raise rates once before March next year. It is a good thing that the Bank of Japan wants to raise the interest rate to a normal 0.25%, but this requires a lot of effort, so "they should wait for a while" to determine whether to further raise rates.

ChainCatcher news, influenced by global instability and hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian market has experienced a turbulent week as traders are digesting a lot.ANZ Chief Economist Adam Boyton stated that while he believes the RBA will not raise interest rates, the central bank's monetary policy committee seems to be considering the decision to raise rates more carefully than what the market pricing indicates. ANZ maintains its view that the RBA will wait until February to determine whether it will join other major central banks in cutting rates. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, cryptocurrency analyst Alex Krüger posted on social media: "The current market crash is clearly driven by macro factors, rather than being specific to the cryptocurrency industry. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that the main driving factor is not the collapse of the U.S. economy (discussions about a U.S. recession heated up after last Friday's employment data).It seems that the policy mistake was not the Federal Reserve's failure to cut rates quickly enough, but rather the Fed's decision not to cut rates when Japan raised its rates. This statement does seem a bit 'hindsight', and we now need U.S. economic data to confirm this.The chart shows the starting point of last week's sell-off, which was right after the FOMC statement last Wednesday. It coincided with the opening time of the Nikkei index.A financial crisis primarily triggered by a large number of Japanese leveraged speculators is much better than one caused by a recession in the U.S.As for U.S. data, the current focus is on the labor market, so special attention should be paid to this Thursday's initial jobless claims (which are usually not market-moving data), as well as the state employment data to be released on August 16 (State Employment data, which provides detailed state-level employment data and is rarely focused on by the market)."