ChainCatcher news, Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown said in a report that the dollar weakened during the European trading session, but its good days are not over yet. He stated, "I still firmly believe in a bullish outlook for the dollar." The notion of "American exceptionalism" remains strong. Compared to other major central banks, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is lower, which should continue to support the dollar. The weak phase provides investors with an opportunity to buy the dollar. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Platts analyst Tim Murray stated in a report that the tariff and immigration proposals of U.S. President-elect Trump could exacerbate inflation, which might force the Federal Reserve to halt interest rate cuts or even raise rates. This capital market strategist indicated that this could lead to significant market volatility.He stated, "The energy and financial sectors may benefit from a more favorable regulatory environment, while renewable energy companies could face pressure if parts of the Inflation Reduction Act are repealed." The tough trade policies of increasing tariffs could impact non-U.S. stocks and lead to volatility in the affected industries.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, influenced by better-than-expected U.S. employment data, Goldman Sachs has lowered its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing the first rate cut expectation from March to June, and now expects only two rate cuts in 2025.Bank of America is more cautious, believing that the Federal Reserve may extend its pause on rate cuts, and there is even a risk of rate hikes. The market is focused on the CPI data set to be released on January 15, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% for the fifth consecutive month potentially further strengthening hawkish expectations.Since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September 2023, Bitcoin has risen over 50%, once breaking through the historical high of $108,000. The market generally expects Bitcoin to test the support level of $92,000, which has consistently provided support since last November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Global Research states that we believe the rate-cutting cycle has ended; our baseline assumption is that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period; however, we believe the risk of the next move leans towards an interest rate hike.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Chief Economist Cheng Shi of ICBC International stated at the 2025 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting that the adjustment path of U.S. monetary policy in 2025 will be a "first urgent, then gradual" process. Currently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by about 50-75 basis points in 2025.Cheng Shi indicated that the re-inflation risks faced by the U.S. can be viewed from two dimensions: first, the current U.S. inflation is in a zone where it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and there is very little room for further decline, making it quite challenging. In fact, there are many potential factors that could drive U.S. inflation upward. Second, the current market has formed an upward expectation for U.S. inflation, and inflation expectations tend to be self-fulfilling, which will create substantial upward pressure on inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the market in January 2025 will face multiple risks and opportunities against the backdrop of Trump's inauguration and the release of non-farm data. Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, pointed out that the period from November to January is usually a strong performance time for the market. Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index performs well during the last five trading days of December and early January, known as the "Santa Claus rally." The upcoming employment data and corporate earnings reports will provide key insights into the economic health of the market.Helen Given, Deputy Head of Trading at Monex USA, emphasized that the inauguration of a new government is often accompanied by high uncertainty. The trade policies of the Trump administration could have a significant impact on the global currency market, and the actual effects of policy implementation remain to be seen. Given believes that investors need to pay attention to the actual implementation of proposed policies, which may affect currencies such as the euro, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar.Damon Polistina, Head of Research at Eaglebrook Advisors, mentioned that a pro-crypto Trump administration could bring positive catalysts to the crypto market. The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts may support risk assets like cryptocurrencies, and any positive economic data will further drive market momentum.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve has raised the target federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points by the end of 2025. Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst believes that the Federal Reserve may find itself in a bind. With the core PCE rising 0.1% month-on-month in November, the increase in prices is slowing down, and the final rate cut by the Federal Reserve may exceed current expectations."In our base case, a softening labor market will lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates at every meeting going forward." This view contrasts with the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January. "But even if we are wrong, a stagnant unemployment rate and slowing inflation would be enough to justify rate cuts at every meeting at least beyond January."

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expressed his views on X, detailing why he believes the current bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market will continue.Despite the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement causing a short-term shock to the market—reducing next year's rate cut expectations from 4 times to 2 times—Hougan believes this is merely a brief interlude in the bull market process. He pointed out that the cryptocurrency market has developed an endogenous momentum independent of Federal Reserve policy, with four core trends continuously driving industry development:Washington's regulatory attitude has clearly shifted to a more supportive stance.Institutional investors are entering the market at an accelerated pace, with ETF funds continuing to flow in.Government and corporate entities are strategically increasing their Bitcoin holdings.Breakthroughs in programmable blockchain technology.From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's 10-day exponential moving average (approximately $102,000) continues to stay above the 20-day moving average (approximately $99,000). Hougan stated that this classic technical indicator has historically reflected market trends well.Hougan emphasized that the cryptocurrency market is in a new multi-year bull market cycle, and he expects that a 50bps rate cut will not change this.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, Bitcoin took a slight breather after first breaking through $108,000, as traders awaited the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut decision and assessed the optimism brought by incoming President Donald Trump's support for cryptocurrencies.Trump has promised to introduce friendly regulatory policies aimed at establishing the U.S. as a leader in the cryptocurrency space and supports the idea of creating a strategic national Bitcoin reserve. MicroStrategy is set to join the Nasdaq 100 index, which also adds to this optimism, as it opens up possibilities for the company to further profit from Bitcoin investments. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to implement another 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, but the clarity of future policy direction has diminished due to strong U.S. economic growth and inflation risks stemming from Trump's broader agenda.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, based on CME Federal Reserve observation data, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range at this week's FOMC meeting, marking the second rate cut since November, with the current expected probability as high as 93.4%.Luis Buenaventura, head of cryptocurrency at GCash, stated that since the rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market, the direct impact of this policy adjustment on cryptocurrency prices will be relatively limited. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin experiences a 50% increase within 60 days, there is about a two-thirds probability of achieving an additional 35% increase in the following two months.Neal Wen, global business development director at Kronos Research, added that in a low-interest-rate environment, institutional investors tend to view crypto assets as an alternative to traditional investments. Min Jung, a research analyst at Presto Labs, pointed out that the market focus has shifted to the policy speech content and the latest economic projections dot plot from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which will provide important guidance for the direction of monetary policy in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, BTC has reached a historic high of $105,000, rising 20% in the past month. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, and there are rumors that Trump may use Bitcoin as a reserve asset for the U.S. "from day one."

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, the latest U.S. inflation data has strengthened bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again, and Bitcoin has once again surpassed $100,000. The prospect of a loose monetary environment has eased investor sentiment, driving the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index to a record high.Henry Elder, head of UTXO Management, stated, "The market likes to see inflation rates meet expectations." He added that traders are "trying to figure out whether $100,000 is a ceiling or a floor."Since Trump won the U.S. election on November 5, Bitcoin has risen by about 50%, with approximately $11 billion net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs during this period, while Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $2.4 billion in net inflow.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders now believe the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is 85%, up from 67% before the employment report was released.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 22.5%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 77.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate until January next year is 17.2%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 64.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 18.2%.