ChainCatcher News, after the release of the U.S. October Import Price Index and October Core Retail Sales data, traders have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve may not see more signs of inflation easing before deciding whether to cut interest rates again in December. After studying this week's CPI and PPI inflation data, many analysts predict that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, will show that core prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October. This would represent a renewed acceleration in growth since September and means that the core PCE annualized rate has returned to the level seen in May.However, this pain may be temporary. Citigroup economists expect that the core PCE monthly inflation rate may slow significantly in November. But the November data will not be released until New Year's Eve.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of PPI and initial jobless claims data, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, and U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell slightly; traders are still betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher news, the U.S. October CPI data released last night fully met market expectations, causing little stir in the market. However, the data performance has increased market confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from about 58% earlier on Wednesday to around 80%.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks showed volatility on Wednesday, with the three major indices collectively turning negative at the start, then rebounding to rise, but significantly narrowing gains by the end of the day, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.26%, the S&P 500 slightly up 0.02%, and the Dow Jones up 0.11%. The "Tech Seven Sisters" had mixed performances, and most cryptocurrency concept stocks retreated.The cryptocurrency market regained momentum after a brief pullback. Bitcoin broke through the important $90,000 mark last night, reaching a high of $93,265, then retreated after hitting a new historical high, and as of the time of writing, it was at $89,586. Bitcoin's market capitalization has now surpassed Saudi Aramco, making it the seventh largest asset in the world. Meme coins continue to rise, leading various sectors and becoming the focus of investors' attention.In the forex and commodities sector, after the CPI release, the dollar index initially fell and then rose, reaching a 13-month high since October last year, putting pressure on other currencies, with the offshore yuan falling below 7.25 yuan. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, closing up over 0.45%, lingering at two-week lows. The rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pressured gold prices to decline for the fourth consecutive trading day, hitting a near two-month low.The CPI data, which was in line with expectations, increased the probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and helped to some extent alleviate market concerns about inflation prospects following a potential Trump victory. Currently, the market is focused on Thursday's PPI and weekly initial jobless claims, Friday's retail sales data, and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed officials. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher News, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose as traders believe the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased. Traders have increased their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, IG market strategists stated that Trump's election as President of the United States has directly led to a reduction in the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2025. The potential "red wave" means there is little resistance to his tax cuts and spending plans, coupled with his stance on raising tariffs.The strategist said, "Overall, this could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, and we might expect the Fed to be more cautious in its future easing process, indicating upward pressure on yields and a stronger dollar." Traders now believe there is a 68% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, compared to about 83% before Trump's victory.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, as expected. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of over $1.3 billion on Thursday, and against this backdrop, traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects.Min Jung, an investment analyst at Presto Research, stated, "In the short term, $100,000 will become the next major focus level, as this number is symbolic and represents a change in digits. Looking ahead, we believe the U.S. may eventually incorporate Bitcoin into its balance sheet, perhaps as part of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' or something similar, but likely under a more low-key name. With that in mind, we believe Bitcoin's target is around $110,000."Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, said, "After the U.S. election results were announced, the leading cryptocurrency surged significantly, but it is currently holding at high levels, possibly consolidating its strength before the next round of increases. Overall, we maintain that the new highs have triggered a wave of strong growth, expected to rise to $100,000-$110,000 within 2-3 months without experiencing significant pullbacks." However, some traders warn of potential short-term pullbacks, although they remain generally bullish on BTC, indicating that post-election market adjustments and policy uncertainties could lead to short-term corrections.

ChainCatcher news, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the US stock market continues to rise. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, in line with market expectations. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts believe that considering the previous statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, a reasonable rate of interest rate cuts should be 25 basis points. Coupled with the relatively stable economic data performance over the past two months, although the October non-farm payrolls weakened significantly, it was largely affected by one-off factors. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week remains a high probability event, rather than a further 50 basis point cut or no cut at all.Currently, the market has basically priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with a probability of 97.6%, while the probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 68.4%. Currently, the main institutions' analysis views on rate cuts are:Goldman Sachs: A continuous cut of 25 basis points is needed;JPMorgan Chase: Rate cuts still hold up;Deutsche Bank: The election will not affect the Federal Reserve's decision this week.

ChainCatcher news, German Central Cooperative Bank analyst Sonja Marten stated in a report that a Trump victory could reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, thereby benefiting the dollar. She said that Trump's tariffs and immigration plans are expected to trigger inflation, while tax cuts will lead to short-term economic prosperity. "All of this will significantly reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. In this scenario, a noticeable and positive reaction from the dollar is expected."

ChainCatcher news: The October non-farm data in the U.S. was far below expectations. Excluding the data distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is gradually cooling down. Meanwhile, with the U.S. election results imminent, Trump's chances unexpectedly weakened, reversing the "Trump trade" and adding more uncertainty to the election.According to 4E monitoring, major tech giants released their earnings reports last week. On Friday, despite disappointing earnings from Apple, the weak October non-farm data boosted expectations for interest rate cuts. Coupled with positive earnings from Amazon and Intel, this lifted optimistic sentiment in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 0.8%. However, looking at the week as a whole, U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-week rising trend, down 1.5% for the week, the S&P down 1.4%, and the Dow down 0.2%. The crypto market was affected by the weakening "Trump trade," and after approaching historical highs at the end of the month, risk aversion increased. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was at $68,885, up 0.25%, with a 7-day increase dropping to 1.8%.In the forex and commodities sector, the dollar index experienced a V-shaped reversal on "non-farm day," breaking back above 104 and erasing the weekly decline, with a cumulative increase of 0.06% last week. The British pound was the only non-U.S. currency to rise, recovering from the previous two days' sell-off due to the budget proposal, but it has fallen for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak in six years. Spot gold saw a slight surge after the non-farm data on Friday, but as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remained strong, it subsequently fell back, ultimately closing down 0.32%, marking the largest weekly decline since August. Due to Iran's relatively restrained retaliation against Israel, U.S. crude oil production reached a new high, and combined with weak economic data such as non-farm payrolls raising demand concerns, international crude oil prices fell from high levels last Friday, with a cumulative drop of over 3% for the week.This week is set to be historic, as the U.S. election will commence final voting on November 5 (Tuesday), with results expected to be largely finalized by noon on the 6th Beijing time. Currently, the election situation is tense, with polls in swing states constantly flipping. The latest polls show no significant advantage between Trump and Harris, leading some investors to take profits on Trump-oriented positions, especially those related to Trump's policies and improvements in public opinion polls. The overall market sentiment is cautious, with increased uncertainty. eeee.com is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the October non-farm payroll data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose slightly after the U.S. job openings data was released, as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.The number of job openings in the U.S. for September fell to the lowest level since early 2021, with an increase in layoffs, which is consistent with a slowdown in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that vacancies in August decreased from a downwardly revised 7.86 million in July to 7.44 million.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the CFO of American Express stated that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are insufficient in magnitude and timing to affect consumer patterns.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, U.S. retail sales in September increased slightly more than expected, supporting the view of strong economic growth in the third quarter. U.S. retail sales month-on-month in September recorded 0.4%, while the unadjusted increase for August was 0.1%. Signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again next month, but will reinforce expectations for a 25 basis point cut.