ChainCatcher news: The October non-farm data in the U.S. was far below expectations. Excluding the data distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is gradually cooling down. Meanwhile, with the U.S. election results imminent, Trump's chances unexpectedly weakened, reversing the "Trump trade" and adding more uncertainty to the election.According to 4E monitoring, major tech giants released their earnings reports last week. On Friday, despite disappointing earnings from Apple, the weak October non-farm data boosted expectations for interest rate cuts. Coupled with positive earnings from Amazon and Intel, this lifted optimistic sentiment in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 0.8%. However, looking at the week as a whole, U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-week rising trend, down 1.5% for the week, the S&P down 1.4%, and the Dow down 0.2%. The crypto market was affected by the weakening "Trump trade," and after approaching historical highs at the end of the month, risk aversion increased. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was at $68,885, up 0.25%, with a 7-day increase dropping to 1.8%.In the forex and commodities sector, the dollar index experienced a V-shaped reversal on "non-farm day," breaking back above 104 and erasing the weekly decline, with a cumulative increase of 0.06% last week. The British pound was the only non-U.S. currency to rise, recovering from the previous two days' sell-off due to the budget proposal, but it has fallen for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak in six years. Spot gold saw a slight surge after the non-farm data on Friday, but as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remained strong, it subsequently fell back, ultimately closing down 0.32%, marking the largest weekly decline since August. Due to Iran's relatively restrained retaliation against Israel, U.S. crude oil production reached a new high, and combined with weak economic data such as non-farm payrolls raising demand concerns, international crude oil prices fell from high levels last Friday, with a cumulative drop of over 3% for the week.This week is set to be historic, as the U.S. election will commence final voting on November 5 (Tuesday), with results expected to be largely finalized by noon on the 6th Beijing time. Currently, the election situation is tense, with polls in swing states constantly flipping. The latest polls show no significant advantage between Trump and Harris, leading some investors to take profits on Trump-oriented positions, especially those related to Trump's policies and improvements in public opinion polls. The overall market sentiment is cautious, with increased uncertainty. eeee.com is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, analysts indicate that the overall inflation rate in the U.S. for September is also higher by one-tenth of a percentage point, reaching 0.2%, which increases the rationale for a 25 basis point rate cut next month instead of 50 basis points. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims surged by 258,000, but this will be affected by factors such as hurricanes. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news indicates that Ethereum derivatives market indicators show that investor sentiment is becoming optimistic. CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the 30-day moving average of the funding rate has turned positive, suggesting that futures traders' bullish sentiment is strengthening.Moreno pointed out that this upward trend follows a long-term decline, indicating that market participants may be turning more optimistic.Coinglass data shows that since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 18, the open interest weighted funding rate for Ethereum has been on a positive trend, currently at 0.0089%. QCP Capital analysts also noted an improvement in funding rates on major exchanges, believing this is related to the recent rate cuts. Since the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points on September 18, the price of Ether has increased by over 17%, outperforming Bitcoin's 10% increase during the same period.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, 10x Research believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on September 18, the originally bullish liquidity easing cycle may have adverse effects on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.It is reported that a 50 basis point adjustment typically indicates an urgency to control inflation and triggers a risk-averse sentiment in financial markets. A 50 basis point rate cut next week may signal heightened concerns about the economy or a feeling of lagging in addressing the impending economic slowdown, leading investors to reduce their exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated: "While a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve may indicate greater market concerns, the Fed's primary focus will be on mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions."

ChainCatcher news, as traders focus on Wednesday's inflation data and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut next week, U.S. stocks are set to end a four-day decline triggered by growing concerns over an economic slowdown on Monday. All three major indices rose over 1%, with 10 out of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 advancing, led by consumer discretionary and industrial sectors.Ivan Feinseth, Chief Investment Officer of investment bank Tigress Financial Partners, stated, "Despite the weak labor market and the potentially weakening U.S. economy continuing to exert pressure, the market's response to buy on dips continues to support the stock market." Following last Friday's data showing U.S. job growth in August fell short of expectations, Wednesday's CPI report may provide Federal Reserve officials with assurance that inflationary pressures are stabilizing. The U.S. presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump on Tuesday night may inject some uncertainty into the market this week. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," after the Labor Department releases unemployment data this week, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30%.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos' latest article states that the U.S. employment report for August, set to be released on Friday, will play a larger role than usual in determining the Fed's rate cut this month.At the Fed's September meeting, the debate will focus on whether to start cutting rates by 25 or 50 basis points to prevent undesirable weakness in the labor market. The August hiring and employment report will be key to this decision. A decent employment report could prompt officials to begin a possible series of rate cuts with a 25 basis point reduction. If hiring is weak or the unemployment rate rises, as it did in July, a larger rate cut will be imminent. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, including strategist Misra M. Mateika from JPMorgan, indicates that market sentiment and positioning indicators appear far from attractive. Although the Federal Reserve will implement monetary easing to address the slowdown in growth, it may not be sufficient to further boost the stock market to record levels.Additionally, rising political and geopolitical uncertainties make the seasonal factors in September even more challenging. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of a 50 basis points cut is 22%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by November is 3.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points cut is 75.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis points cut is 21%.