ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan stated that the U.S. economy faces multiple policy risks brought by the proposals of the elected President Trump. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news reports that the U.S. market reacted enthusiastically to Trump's victory, but this trade has since eased.Economist Phil Suttle proposed another scenario. His outlook indicates that the more aggressively Trump implements policies such as deportation and tariffs, the greater the likelihood that the U.S. will fall into stagflation panic in the coming years. If immigration is cut off and workers are deported, the labor force may lose all growth momentum and even shrink.Suttle estimates that, combined with tariffs, economic growth could stagnate or even reverse in 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, labor shortages and tariffs could drive up prices, potentially pushing inflation rates above 3% annually. Suttle believes that Trump's more radical policies could exacerbate these effects.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, The Leuthold Group's Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen stated in his blog that although policy officials and investors seem increasingly concerned about the possibility of overheating economic growth, he believes that an unexpected economic slowdown is more likely to occur in 2025, which could ultimately lead to a stock market correction of at least 10%.Jim Paulsen pointed out that based on historical data since 2003, fluctuations in bond yields typically lead to unexpected economic outcomes; a decline in yields indicates that the economy will improve in three months, and vice versa. In his view, bond yields hovering around 4.6% (which reached 4.63% last week) suggest that the economic surprise index will slow to -35 in the first quarter, and GDP will also slow down.Jim Paulsen stated that if the economic unexpected slowdown exacerbates concerns, the stock market may pause its upward trend, even if it is not a correction of 10% to 15%.

ChainCatcher news, Sequoia Capital partner Roelof Botha posted on his social platform, "Seeing more and more regulators hurriedly imposing penalties and restrictions on businesses before the government is about to change. Their actions expose their illegitimacy. Widespread and erratic overregulation is stifling the U.S. economy."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a nonpartisan fiscal oversight organization, the "Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget" (CRFB), warns in its latest analysis that extending the tax cuts set to expire next year will have almost no benefit for economic growth.The CRFB's findings are based on an assessment by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which found that allowing the tax cuts to expire would significantly increase public revenue, reducing the cumulative fiscal deficit by $3.7 trillion over ten years. This potential revenue growth would mean less public borrowing, which in turn would stimulate private investment.In the CBO's analysis, this would help offset the reduction in the labor force caused by the expiration of the tax cuts. The CBO stated, "Overall, these two effects largely offset each other, resulting in very little change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)."This means that, in the view of the CRFB, extending the tax cuts would also have a similar, modest net effect on economic growth.

ChainCatcher news, ING stated that after the U.S. presidential election, the dollar has risen, and it may continue to trade in a higher range thereafter.ING analyst Chris Turner mentioned in a report that as the market prepares for Trump's second presidential term, it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December. The development of overseas economies is also "far from inspiring." Turner noted that U.S. economic data, including initial claims, is unlikely to impact the market, and the dollar index should continue to trade within its new range of 106-107.

ChainCatcher news, investment giant Pimco's Chief Investment Officer stated that Trump's economic plan could "add fuel to the fire" for the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to stop cutting interest rates, thereby reversing the rise of U.S. stocks after Trump's victory. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The U.S. economy is performing better than any of its global peers.

ChainCatcher news, Citigroup analysts stated that elections often have a significant impact on market trends before voting, but traders seem to be more focused on other matters this year.Analysts pointed out that several market indicators that typically flash before U.S. elections are noticeably calm this year, suggesting that concerns about the election's impact on the market may be less than in previous years. They believe that traders are not focused on the election, but rather on the U.S. economy and earnings season.Analysts indicated that the strong performance of U.S. stocks in the weeks leading up to the election may be driven by the robust state of the U.S. economy, rather than investors building positions in the "Trump trade" or "Harris trade."However, analysts stated that, as in previous years, the stock market is likely to rebound after the election. They noted that due to the latest earnings season where most companies reported solid performances, the current market positioning makes it very likely that the stock market will rebound after the voting on November 5 and may potentially climb to new highs in the new year.

ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate for the United States in Q3 2024 is 2.8%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3.0%, and a slight decline from 3.0% in Q2, but still a remarkable result. In terms of components, personal consumption expenditures are strong, corporate equipment investment is expanding, and exports and government spending are accelerating, indicating that the U.S. economic growth remains healthy. Relatively weaker are real estate investment and construction investment, showing that high interest rates are still having a suppressive effect.In addition, inflation further declined in Q3, suggesting that the U.S. economy is heading towards a soft landing. We believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant rate cuts for now, expecting a 25 basis point cut next week, while whether to skip a rate cut in December will depend on inflation developments.

ChainCatcher news, this week is a busy week for economic data. The Fed's favored inflation indicator PCE data, the October non-farm payroll report, and the Q3 earnings reports from Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will determine the market direction at the start of November.According to 4E monitoring, last week the three major U.S. stock indexes had mixed performances. Tesla's stock price surged, pushing the Nasdaq up about 0.9%, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains and just a step away from its historical high. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week, and the Dow Jones dropped 2.6%, both ending a six-week winning streak. The cryptocurrency market saw significant declines last week, with Bitcoin priced at $67,668, down 2.18% over the past seven days, and Ethereum at $2,490, nearly 10% lower over the same period.In the forex commodities sector, the dollar index approached a three-month high on Friday, rising 0.8% last week and marking its fourth consecutive week of gains, while political uncertainty led to a 1.9% decline in the yen last week. Due to the instability in the Middle East and the U.S. election, along with global central bank rate cut expectations, spot gold reached a historical high for three consecutive days last week before giving back some gains, but still ended the week up over 0.9%, marking its sixth consecutive week of increases. The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices up over 4% for the week.Recently, the market has increasingly anticipated a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and this week's series of economic data will test investors' bets. On Wednesday, the U.S. Q3 GDP estimate will be released, followed by the September PCE data on Thursday, and the October non-farm report on Friday. With the policy meeting approaching, Fed officials have once again entered their routine blackout period, and the market widely believes there is a high possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut. The influx of data combined with the approaching U.S. election will intensify market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, UBS predicts that the U.S. economy will experience a "no landing" scenario, where economic growth continues and inflation remains stable, breaking the recession forecast. Due to stronger-than-expected employment data and GDP growth, UBS expects the elections to trigger market volatility, but as the Federal Reserve moves towards rate cuts, economic momentum and the trend of artificial intelligence will support a rise in the stock market.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. Department of Commerce announced yesterday that September retail sales exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, highlighting the resilience of U.S. consumer spending, which continues to provide strong momentum for the U.S. economy. A series of robust economic data recently has reinforced market expectations for only a 25 basis point rate cut.According to 4E monitoring, after the data release, U.S. stocks opened higher but then fell, with the S&P reaching a new intraday high before turning down, and the Nasdaq also nearly erasing its early gains. However, the Dow Jones reached new intraday and closing highs, marking two consecutive days of gains. By the close, the S&P 500 was down 0.02%, the Nasdaq was up 0.04%, and the Dow was up 0.37%. The cryptocurrency market followed U.S. stocks with slight fluctuations; at the time of writing, Bitcoin was at 67,972, up 0.8%, and Ethereum was at 2,632, up 0.43%.In the forex and commodities sector, positive economic data pushed the U.S. dollar index to an 11-week high, rebounding 3.34% since October. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates on Thursday, causing the euro to decline for four consecutive days to an 11-week low. Last week, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased, indicating strong demand, which led to a rise of about 0.40% in international oil prices, halting a four-day decline and moving away from two-week lows. Spot gold benefited from uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections and expectations of more monetary policy easing, approaching 2,700 dollars, setting a new historical high, with an increase of over 30% this year.Recent data shows that retail sales continue to grow, with better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, a stronger-than-expected unemployment rate, and a recent cooling trend in initial jobless claims. Coupled with the steady decline in U.S. inflation and the upward revision of long-term GDP growth rates beyond expectations, this provides strong support for the "soft landing" logic of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, a new round of global rate cuts is accelerating, significantly improving financial market sentiment and generally increasing investors' risk appetite. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan believes that if the United States does not balance its spending with economic growth, it will regret it. If this issue is not addressed, the U.S. may lose its "gold standard" status in the economy.He also stated that the debt issue is not something that can be handled in the first week of a new government taking office, nor is it a problem that the old government can continue to govern------it is a discipline issue that spans time.

ChainCatcher news, on Tuesday local time, former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Trump accepted a media interview, stating that if he could return to the White House, his core policies would focus on economic growth and bringing businesses back to the United States.Trump vigorously defended high tariffs, believing that this is a way to stimulate economic growth. In his opening remarks, Trump claimed he would impose tariffs on imported goods and reduce taxes for domestic businesses. "For me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff."

ChainCatcher news, last week the U.S. September CPI and PPI data were released one after another, sending somewhat mixed signals to the market. However, the overall data reflects that inflationary pressures still exist, and a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has almost become a certainty.According to 4E monitoring, last Friday's unexpectedly flat PPI data led to a collective rise in the three major U.S. stock indices, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices hitting intraday all-time highs. Last week, the Dow rose 1.21%, the S&P 500 gained 1.11%, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.13%, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains for all three indices. The cryptocurrency market followed the rise in U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin climbing back above $62,000, closing at $62,659, with a weekly decline narrowing to 1.82%. Ethereum was reported at $2,455, with a weekly decline narrowing to 1.47%.In the forex commodities sector, the U.S. dollar index continued to rebound last week, rising 0.4%, leading to declines in most non-U.S. currencies. Affected by the escalating tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices rose for the second consecutive week, with U.S. oil gaining 1.6% over the week and Brent oil rising 1.3%. The fluctuating dollar also drove spot gold further towards its historical high, with a slight increase over the week; COMEX gold futures were reported at $2,674.2 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 0.04% for the week.This week, U.S. economic data is relatively calm, and corporate earnings reports may become a bigger focus. As the new earnings season kicks off, U.S. stocks may face tests. Recently, the most dangerous news for the cryptocurrency market is the possibility of the U.S. government selling 69,000 Bitcoins (approximately $4.2 billion). Additionally, with only a few weeks until the U.S. elections, the tight election situation adds a lot of uncertainty to the market.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and forex. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Logan stated that recent inflation data is "very welcome"; a reduction in policy restrictions can also help cool inflation; the U.S. economy remains strong and stable; gradually adjusting policies towards a neutral interest rate is of significant importance; the banking sector must continue to diversify funding sources; the Federal Reserve's discount window is one of the important sources of bank financing.