ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs strategist Oppenheimer stated that European and other overseas stock markets may continue to outperform the U.S. stock market, and they reiterated their recommendation to diversify investments into assets outside the U.S. The average correlation between stock markets in different countries has fallen to its lowest level since the 1990s. However, they noted that any further downward revision of U.S. economic growth expectations could also hurt overseas stock markets.If the main reason for a further pullback in U.S. stocks is concerns about economic growth, rather than the dominant tech stocks, then historical performance shows that other markets are likely to decline as well.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Paul Eitelman, Chief Investment Strategist for North America at Russell Investments, stated that due to the robust U.S. economy, the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to occur before May or June."We believe that the U.S. economic fundamentals are solid amid extreme uncertainty in policies faced by households, businesses, investors, and the Federal Reserve." Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has clearly indicated that he will wait for more clear information before cutting rates again, "which sets the stage for the next rate cut in May or June." Eitelman noted that macro fundamentals show resilient economic growth and easing inflation, supporting the baseline scenario of two to three rate cuts later this year.

ChainCatcher news, Alec Kersman, Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), stated that due to the implementation of tariff measures by the United States, the likelihood of the U.S. falling into an economic recession this year has increased, estimating the probability at 35%. This probability is higher than the 15% assessed by Pimco last December.Nevertheless, Pimco's fundamental forecast for the U.S. economy is growth of 1% to 1.5%, although this is a "significant decline" from previous expectations. Kamal Bhatia, President and CEO of Principal Asset Management, stated that such trade policies will promote domestic consumption, helping the U.S. economy grow above expectations. Consumer spending on goods and services accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Bhatia noted that the increase in domestic spending triggered by tariffs is "highly likely" to drive U.S. GDP to "perform better than expected."

ChainCatcher news, according to the American media AXIOS, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated on Tuesday local time that President Trump's economic policies are the most significant measures in American history.In an interview with CBS, a reporter posed the question: If the tariff policy leads to an economic recession, even if only a short-term recession, are they still valuable? Raimondo answered affirmatively: "Yes, I believe the tariff policy is worth it, even if it triggers an economic recession. But the only reason the U.S. economy might fall into recession is because of the Biden administration's ridiculous policies." This contrasts with her statement last Sunday, where Raimondo said in an interview with NBC News that the U.S. would never experience an economic recession.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, today, anxiety over the U.S. economy has driven the dollar down to a five-month low against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index hit its lowest level since mid-October, falling 0.5% to 103.329 at one point. Jefferies analyst Brad Bechtel told clients: "We know the routine here, concerns about U.S. growth have pushed us (the dollar index) down to 100, while inflation worries have brought us back up to 108."

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve mouthpiece Nick Timiraos published an article in the Wall Street Journal stating that over the past year, U.S. economic policymakers have focused on achieving a so-called soft landing, which means reducing inflation without causing an economic recession. Now, a group of "new pilots" is considering changing course, and they themselves admit that this could lead the economy toward a hard landing.In recent days, President Trump and his senior advisors have shown indifference to the rising risks of trade uncertainty hampering private sector investment. They believe that a detox may be needed in terms of spending and hiring, that falling stock values are not concerning, and that inflation may rise in the short term. Some analysts warn that Trump's messaging may reflect a strategic effort to improve the country's bargaining position with trade partners, leaving bond investors and the Federal Reserve stunned, thereby maintaining a tendency to cut interest rates.Trump's impulsive behavior has prompted European authorities to take measures to increase economic stimulus and defense spending. Analysts say that the situation over the past two weeks indicates that Trump is unlikely to change course due to a market downturn, which will help reset Wall Street's expectations. Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Piper Sandler, said: "Everything he is doing tells us he is not joking. He fundamentally believes this on tariffs."

ChainCatcher news, according to analysis by The Kobeissi Letter, the real reason for the market decline is the sudden shift in risk appetite. In just a few days, the market went from extreme greed to extreme fear. The positioning is so polarized that market sentiment has turned in the completely opposite direction. "Regardless of the fundamentals, sentiment is the ultimate driver of any market price."When sentiment shifts rapidly, outflows can reach historic highs, triggering what we have seen as a "flash crash." Data shows that institutional capital exited before the decline in tech stocks. Heading into 2025, hedge fund holdings in the seven major U.S. stocks (Magnificent 7) will drop to the lowest level in 22 months.In the last week of February, cryptocurrency funds recorded an outflow of $2.6 billion for the week. This is about $500 million higher than the record set in 2024.

ChainCatcher message, as concerns about a U.S. economic recession grow, most safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the yen rose in early Asian trading.Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at the National Australia Bank, said: "Headlines about rising recession risks (from low levels) are everywhere. It's no surprise that U.S. Treasury yields are falling." Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased, with the market pricing a cut of 81.6 basis points by the end of 2025, up from 70.7 basis points last Friday.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Morgan Stanley predicts that due to the negative impact of tariffs and a tight labor market leading to rising inflation rates, the growth rate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decline. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.9% to 1.5%, and for 2026 from 1.3% to 1.2%.Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, with two more rate cuts anticipated starting in 2026, later than market expectations. Goldman Sachs has also lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.7% and raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession from 15% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a research report from China International Capital Corporation states that the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs in February, falling short of the market expectation of 170,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%, partly influenced by government layoffs and retail strikes. Looking ahead, since employment is a lagging indicator, we may see further negative impacts from government layoffs in the coming months.Government spending cuts have a "multiplier effect," and the reduction of federal employees may spread to non-government sector employment. Those laid off will need to "re-employ," which will also intensify competition in the labor market and increase the difficulty of finding jobs in the future. We reiterate our previous view that, in the context of tariffs and government spending cuts, attention should be paid to the downside risks of the U.S. economy. Until headwinds dissipate or genuinely business-friendly policies (such as tax cuts, deregulation, and interest rate cuts) are implemented, we remain cautious about the U.S. economy.

ChainCatcher News, President Trump has refused to rule out the possibility of the U.S. economy shrinking and entering a recession this year. He stated that his comprehensive economic agenda may cause short-term turbulence, but he believes it will drive future prosperity.In an interview on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures, Trump was asked if he expected a recession this year, to which he replied, "I hate to predict such things. There is a transition period because what we are doing is very big. We are bringing wealth back to America, and that is a big deal."U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also indicated last week that the U.S. economy might experience a tough period during this economic transformation. However, Commerce Secretary Ross ruled out the possibility of an economic downturn in a television address last Sunday. He stated on NBC's Meet the Press, "There will be no recession in the U.S. The U.S. economy has never been in recession since the pandemic began in 2020."

ChainCatcher news, Mark Cuban recently expressed concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy, warning that significant cuts in federal spending could have a ripple effect on the overall economy, ultimately leading to a recession.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in response to whether the Federal Reserve is concerned about new government officials suggesting changes to key indicators such as GDP and the dissolution of the Economic Advisory Council that the U.S. economic data provided by government agencies like the Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce is crucial to the Federal Reserve's mission and is the "gold standard" in the world.

ChainCatcher news, citing the latest data from Goldman Sachs, indicates that the risk of a U.S. economic recession has risen from 14% in January to 23%.

ChainCatcher news, Wintermute trader Jake O stated on social media that the cryptocurrency market can no longer trade in isolation and is currently in a macro-driven market environment.Jake O pointed out that this trend has repeatedly appeared throughout the market cycle, although it is not persistent, especially when the market fear index (VIX) is above 20. In this market environment, investors should pay extra attention to U.S. economic data and the dominant narratives in the market—currently mainly focused on tariff issues, which will drive marginal capital flows.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, U.S. President Trump has initiated actions to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi believes that the U.S. economy may fall into stagflation.Recent data reflects that U.S. consumers and businesses are already worried about the economic outlook and are reducing spending. This effect will lead to a significant slowdown in the economy, while the impact of tariffs will cause high inflation, thus the U.S. economy may fall into stagflation. If true, this would be the first time the U.S. has experienced stagflation in 50 years.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model shows that the U.S. economy may contract by 2.8% in the first quarter. If true, this would be the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. In the face of stagflation, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, similar to former Fed Chairman Volcker's aggressive rate hikes in the early 1980s, sacrificing the economy to curb inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Monex Europe analysts stated in a report that the dollar extended its decline on Tuesday, hitting a 12-week low, as concerns over the weakening growth outlook for the U.S. economy put pressure on the dollar.They noted that the concerns about economic growth stem from the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and broader policies, as well as recently weak U.S. economic data. However, these worries about U.S. economic growth may be "somewhat overstated."Meanwhile, the market has also underestimated the impact of tariffs in other regions. They indicated that U.S. import tariffs should still have a net positive effect on the dollar. Currently, traders may need time to digest the full impact of the latest developments, so for those betting on a stronger dollar, this could be a "difficult process."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession is very low.

ChainCatcher news, the Bitfinex Alpha report shows that Bitcoin fell by 17.39% in February, marking the worst February performance since 2014 and the second worst February in history. Since hitting bottom after the FTX collapse in November 2022, Bitcoin bull market corrections have typically ranged between 18-22%, but February saw a correction of 28.3% from January's historical high of $109,590, making it one of the most significant corrections since the end of the bear market.On March 2, U.S. President Trump announced the establishment of the U.S. Crypto Reserve Program, triggering a strong market rebound, with Bitcoin rising 20% from recent lows and a single-day increase of over 12%. However, subsequent sell-offs pushed the Bitcoin price back down to around $92,000. Bitfinex analysts believe that macroeconomic conditions (including the performance of the S&P 500 index) will significantly impact Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming weeks before the details of the Crypto Reserve Program are announced.The report also points out that the U.S. economic situation is complex, with persistent inflation, declining consumer confidence, and slowing economic growth. January's personal consumption expenditure inflation data showed a year-over-year growth rate of 2.5%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Rising service costs and new import tariffs are expected to further affect the Federal Reserve's ability to adjust interest rates, reducing the likelihood of recent rate cuts.