ChainCatcher news, according to Caixin, Fed's Logan stated that if the labor market remains strong, better inflation data does not necessarily mean the Fed can cut interest rates. Even with better inflation data, caution should be exercised regarding interest rate changes; the inflation data in the coming months will be very important; attention should also be paid to geopolitical and policy changes; these factors' impact on the economy is being observed carefully.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Granite Bay Wealth Management analyst Paul Stanley commented on the January PPI report, stating that the Federal Reserve "has no reason to cut rates now." The 0.4% increase was higher than the expectations of economists surveyed earlier, but lower than the revised 0.5% increase from December last year. Prior to this, the CPI data released yesterday also exceeded expectations.Stanley stated, "The timing of rising inflation is particularly special, as the economy is preparing for tariffs, and if tariffs continue, it could add another layer of inflationary pressure." He added that fixed-income investors may see an opportunity to lock in higher yields at this time.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week, indicating that the job market remained stable at the beginning of February. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that for the week ending February 8, the seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims decreased by 7,000 to 213,000.So far this year, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has shown a downward trend, consistent with the historically low unemployment rate. This helps support economic expansion and allows the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts while assessing the impact of the Trump administration's policies.Economists believe that Trump's push for large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants, imposing import tariffs, and tax cuts will lead to inflation. However, despite the low layoff rate, job opportunities for the unemployed are no longer as abundant as they were about a year ago, as businesses have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. short-term interest rate futures have risen, with increased market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, but the market still believes that the possibility of a rate cut in September is greater.

ChainCatcher message, after the release of the CPI data, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 0.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 11.7%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 88.1%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Regan Capital analyst Skyler Weinand stated that the stronger-than-expected CPI report in January may prompt the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year.He said, "The Federal Reserve can only wait and see for now, hoping that economic indicators change to show more progress on inflation." "If consumer prices or inflation expectations rise further, the Fed's next move is likely to be an increase in short-term interest rates."Weinand also mentioned that the "extreme uncertainty" surrounding President Trump's fiscal policy and how it will affect consumer prices is causing "extreme anxiety" for the Federal Reserve, making it more difficult for policymakers to cut rates in the short term.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: The inflation data in January performed strongly, which undermines the justification for the Fed to further "readjust" the rate cut path before mid-year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, interest rate futures traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to lower rates by only 26 basis points by December, down from about 37 basis points before the data was released, which means there will only be one rate cut of 25 basis points this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the CPI data was released, traders adjusted the next Federal Reserve rate cut time from September to December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that he believes interest rates should be lowered, and the rate cut will complement the upcoming tariff policy.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on February 11 during a Senate Banking Committee meeting that "there is no need to rush to adjust" interest rates, but the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience.Cryptocurrency analyst Matthew Hyland noted that although this is "the worst news for the crypto market in 2025," the market reacted calmly, with some tokens even experiencing gains, which may indicate that the market has already priced in the expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began a two-day testimony to Congress on Tuesday, conveying a simple message: due to the strong economic situation, the Federal Reserve can calmly decide when and whether to cut interest rates.Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," pointed out that Federal Reserve officials are encouraged by recent inflation data, which indicates that price pressures remain at moderate levels, suggesting that inflation may soon be closer to the Fed's 2% target. However, they are concerned about potential policy changes from the Trump administration, including a more aggressive use of tariffs compared to his first term, which could raise the prices of imported goods and undermine their final efforts to combat inflation.Timiraos stated that the U.S. economy has proven to be much stronger. Driven by robust consumer spending, high asset prices, and the lingering effects of the aggressive stimulus measures taken by the U.S. government in 2020 and 2021 to support the economy, the U.S. economy has so far withstood the impact of these stricter policies. By the end of last year, the Fed's preferred inflation measure—the PCE price index—had fallen to 2.6%, down from a peak of 7.2% in 2022.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell conveyed a simple message to Congress on Tuesday as he began a two-day hearing: due to strong economic performance, the Fed can take its time deciding when and whether to cut interest rates.Powell will tell lawmakers at the Senate Banking Committee: "Given that our current policy stance is not as restrictive as it once was, and the economy remains strong, we do not need to rush to adjust our policy stance." Powell also defended last year's rate cuts, stating that they were a necessary adjustment to his policy stance in response to improving inflation and a cooling labor market.He indicated that if inflation does not continue to decline to target levels and the economy remains stable, the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period. If the labor market unexpectedly weakens, or if inflation falls faster than expected to the 2% target, the Fed may cut rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Bank of America analysts stated that Trump's trade, fiscal, and immigration policy agenda is expected to trigger moderate inflation, and they predict that these changes will be reflected in inflation in the second half of 2025. They noted that any additional tariffs in the coming weeks could advance the timeline.They stated, "A key question is whether the policy changes will affect long-term inflation expectations." They added that market-based inflation indicators remain within historical ranges. Bank of America reiterated its position that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has ended, with inflation "above target," and they expect both overall and core CPI to grow by 0.3% month-on-month in January. They wrote, "If our forecast for January CPI is correct, then the rationale for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold will be further strengthened."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Bank of England monetary policy committee member Mann stated that she supported a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points last week because she believes that as consumers reduce spending, businesses find it difficult to raise prices.Mann indicated that the demand situation is much weaker than before, which suggests that further easing of policy may be needed, as weak pricing power will seep into lower inflation. Mann was originally one of the most "hawkish" members, having opposed rate cuts last year due to ongoing inflation risks. But now she says the situation looks different. "To some extent, we can convey what we think is the appropriate financial condition for the UK economy; in my view, a larger (rate cut) move is a better means of communication," Mann stated.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 99 economists, 57 believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates one or two more times this year (in a January survey of 102 economists, 56 had this expectation). Among the 101 economists surveyed, 67 believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least once before the end of June (in the January survey, nearly 60% of economists expected a rate cut by the end of March). Out of 46 economists, 27 indicated that the inflation risks from tariffs have recently increased, 17 said there was no change, and 2 said it had decreased.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, the Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts at its January meeting, and when or whether it will resume rate cuts remains uncertain, especially as the market waits to see how Trump's second administration's tariffs and immigration policies will develop.Flack Global Metals economist and research director Daniel Doderer stated, "I think the Federal Reserve is in a very good position to do nothing for the time being. We are transitioning from a balanced labor market to a market that may face supply constraints while demand remains unchanged or even higher, which suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates. Therefore, our internal expectation is that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. However, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates is slightly higher compared to the possibility of raising rates."

ChainCatcher news, CITIC Securities research report points out that in January 2025, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was lower than expected, with healthcare services, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the United States did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The unemployment rate has decreased, wage growth has increased, and the annual revisions showed fewer downward adjustments than the preliminary revisions, indicating a healthy job market. It is expected that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Musk will have a minimal impact on new non-farm jobs in 2025.The non-farm data broke the relatively optimistic sentiment in the market following the December CPI release, and expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed again. The market's focus will now revolve around Trump's tariff haze and inflation expectations, with U.S. stocks expected to remain highly volatile. If the January CPI or tariff plans exceed expectations, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index may rise again. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, each by 25bps.

ChainCatcher news, according to Fortune, Patrick Liou, head of institutional trading at the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, stated that non-farm data once led to a rise in Bitcoin, but then fell again due to increased uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year. The current trend in the crypto market may depend on expectations for future rate cuts.Generally, lower interest rates are favorable for cryptocurrencies, as loose economic conditions encourage investors to return to risk assets. However, the Federal Reserve has not provided a clear direction moving forward and is still observing whether to cut rates, leading crypto traders to be in a state of hesitation. "They are still uncertain because inflation has decreased, but the pace of decline is not fast."