ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam stated that this Thursday, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will successively announce their interest rate decisions. The market unanimously expects a 25% rate cut from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan has a 20% chance of raising rates this week, which is of greater concern to the market. The recent severe depreciation of the yen has put significant pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates. As the main target in the foreign exchange arbitrage market, a rate hike will inevitably bring liquidity pressure to the market.It is highly likely that all decisions will be favorable for the macro market, and there is hope for a surge to $110,000 this week. The main players in the options market are also increasing their positions in options for the end of the year, targeting $110,000 to $120,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, CNBC's December Federal Reserve survey respondents are confident that the Fed will cut rates this week, but they are less certain about whether it should. 93% believe the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, only 63% think this is what the Fed should do. Respondents expect two more rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, down from three in the last survey. By this time next year, the fund rate is expected to drop to 3.8%, and by the end of 2026, it will fall to 3.4%, slightly above the average neutral rate. A huge unknown is the fiscal policy of the new government.The survey shows that the prospects of tariffs and potential deportations under President Trump have dampened some people's upward economic forecasts. Economist Robert Fry stated, "I have never been so uncertain about the inflation outlook." Trump offers us a combination of raising inflation (tariffs, tax cuts) and lowering inflation (deregulation, spending cuts). Who knows what we will ultimately get?

ChainCatcher news, Pantheon macroeconomists Samuel Thomas and Oliver Allen stated that Federal Reserve officials are in a communication blackout ahead of the policy decision to be made this week, but they expect a unanimous decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated before the meeting that he leans towards a 25 basis point cut, which is the clearest policy comment among committee members. Economists anticipate that, given inflation stubbornly remains above target, pausing rate cuts will be the Federal Reserve's default option at the January meeting. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. While lower rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, comments and economic forecasts from the Fed during Wednesday's meeting may dampen expectations for further rate cuts amid ongoing inflation concerns.Recent U.S. CPI and PPI data have raised worries about potential price pressures next year, especially considering speculation around the economic policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Furthermore, although macroeconomic events still hold influence, QCP Capital analysts believe that Bitcoin's recent rise is primarily driven by market sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated today that earlier in the Asian session, Bitcoin surged past $106,500, reaching another milestone. In the past 12 hours, the total amount of short liquidations reached approximately $151 million, driving this rally, as the weekend market lacked liquidity and traders became overly complacent (the funding rate on Deribit briefly turned negative), leading to a squeeze on short positions in the market. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reached an all-time high during this wave, further highlighting Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" and solidifying its position as a more popular store of value than traditional gold.The inclusion of MicroStrategy in the Nasdaq 100 index further boosted market sentiment. Michael Saylor hinted that even if the spot price exceeds $100,000, the company may continue to purchase Bitcoin. This inclusion could attract passive capital into MicroStrategy's stock, thereby indirectly making it easier for the company to raise funds to buy Bitcoin. This week's Federal Reserve meeting seems to be merely background noise for Bitcoin, as its movements remain firmly driven by market sentiment. Although the likelihood is low, if the Federal Reserve and Powell take an extremely dovish stance, it could still provide support for further increases in Bitcoin.

ChainCatcher news, the latest article by renowned journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve" in the Wall Street Journal, indicates that the Fed's interest rate cut plans are constantly changing, with investors widely expecting a third consecutive rate cut this week. After this, officials are prepared to slow down or even halt the rate cuts.Nick Timiraos states that Powell is trying to find the right positioning amid signs of a less volatile labor market and inflation that appears slightly more stable than in September. Some officials have expressed doubts about continuing rate cuts, and those who previously strongly supported the last two cuts are no longer so certain.One option this week is to cut rates by 25 basis points and then use the new economic forecasts to strongly suggest that the central bank is prepared to slow down the rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, based on CME Federal Reserve observation data, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range at this week's FOMC meeting, marking the second rate cut since November, with the current expected probability as high as 93.4%.Luis Buenaventura, head of cryptocurrency at GCash, stated that since the rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market, the direct impact of this policy adjustment on cryptocurrency prices will be relatively limited. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin experiences a 50% increase within 60 days, there is about a two-thirds probability of achieving an additional 35% increase in the following two months.Neal Wen, global business development director at Kronos Research, added that in a low-interest-rate environment, institutional investors tend to view crypto assets as an alternative to traditional investments. Min Jung, a research analyst at Presto Labs, pointed out that the market focus has shifted to the policy speech content and the latest economic projections dot plot from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which will provide important guidance for the direction of monetary policy in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, the S&P 500 halted a three-week winning streak last week, falling 0.64% for the week; the Dow Jones dropped a cumulative 1.82% over the week, marking seven consecutive trading days of decline; the Nasdaq gained a cumulative 0.34% over the week, breaking the 20,000 point mark for the first time in history.Bitcoin rose back above $100,000 last week, setting a record for the longest seven-week winning streak since 2021. The altcoin market saw a decrease in enthusiasm, with a general pullback. Over the week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.115 billion, Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of about $712.7 million, and the supply of stablecoins increased by $2.1 billion, indicating a sustained positive outlook for funds. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin surged suddenly, breaking its historical high to reach $106,648, with the top ten cryptocurrencies also seeing an increase of nearly 1% to 4%.In the forex commodities sector, the US dollar index performed strongly last week, breaking above 107 on Friday and continuously refreshing a two-week high, with a weekly increase of nearly 1%, marking the best weekly performance in a month, while non-USD currencies fell cumulatively over the week. International oil prices surged across the board last week due to geopolitical tensions, halting two weeks of declines, with US oil rising over 6% for the week and Brent oil increasing by 4.54%. Benefiting from market expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, spot gold rose a cumulative 0.56% over the week.The most anticipated economic event this week is the FOMC meeting to be held by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed by the announcement of interest rate decisions and quarterly economic forecasts on Thursday. The market has already fully priced in expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with the real focus being on clues regarding the future direction of Federal Reserve policy. The market expects that rate cuts next year will be more cautious and gradual, with a possibility of pausing rate cuts in January.Additionally, this week marks the last "central bank super week" of 2024, with up to 25 central banks, including those from Japan, the UK, and Sweden, meeting in the same week. The decisions from some key central banks may trigger market volatility, especially in the fast-paced forex and commodities markets. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, BTC has reached a historic high of $105,000, rising 20% in the past month. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, and there are rumors that Trump may use Bitcoin as a reserve asset for the U.S. "from day one."

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the current interest rate unchanged until December is 4.0%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 96%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate until January next year is 3.2%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 78.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 18.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December is a foregone conclusion, followed by consecutive cuts of 25 basis points in January and March of 2025; subsequently, there will only be rate cuts in the June and September meetings. However, there are still some variables, as more and more Federal Reserve officials indicate that the FOMC may slow down the pace of rate cuts sooner, so there is a risk of pausing rate cuts in the January meeting.Traders now believe that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on December 17-18 is as high as 97%. However, due to stronger data in November, the risk of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in early 2025 has increased. Powell's post-meeting speech and the latest economic forecasts will be crucial.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, Societe Generale expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish rate cut policy, and the bank may "open the door for pausing further rate cuts, but the duration of the pause is uncertain."In addition, Jim Baird, Chief Investment Officer of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, stated that any factors leading to market expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace may be slower than investors anticipate could provide some downside potential for the stock market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Tianfeng Securities released a research report indicating that the market has strong expectations for interest rate cuts. At the beginning of the week, after the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for November, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 86%, further increasing the expectations for rate cuts within the year.Subsequently, the U.S. CPI data for November met market expectations, bringing the market's anticipation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December close to 100%. At the same time, the market also increased its bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January next year.

ChainCatcher news, analyst Megan Leonhardt stated that although there was no progress in curbing inflation in November, federal funds futures indicate that the likelihood of Federal Reserve policymakers lowering the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points is nearly 100%. The rationale for a rate cut may depend on the Fed officials' desire to align the benchmark rate with the current economic conditions, as inflation has significantly retreated from its peak in 2022, and the previously tight labor market is normalizing.However, if next week's rate cut is accompanied by Powell's forward guidance, suggesting that the Fed will seek to pause rate cuts at the beginning of the year, do not be surprised. The Fed not only needs to control inflation in its final stages, but many fiscal policy outcomes over the next year could alter the trajectory of inflation. Additionally, there are indeed some areas of weakness in the labor market that warrant close observation. All of this presents directional challenges for the Fed in the coming months, and policymakers may avoid taking action at a startling pace.

According to ChainCatcher news, the CME "FedWatch" indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate until December is 4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 96%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Citigroup's economist team elaborated on their views for 2025, expecting that companies will shift from reducing hiring to outright layoffs. This, in turn, will lead to a decline in consumer spending and business investment. They stated that even if their view on layoffs is incorrect, the slowdown in income growth that comes with the hiring slowdown still poses risks to spending. A loose labor market will alleviate inflationary pressures in the service sector, while weak global conditions will suppress commodity prices.They indicated that this will lead the Federal Reserve to take aggressive actions, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut at every meeting until July next year, bringing the federal funds rate down to between 3% and 3.25%. Meanwhile, market expectations anticipate that the federal funds rate will reach around 4% by then.Economists noted that if long-term interest rates decline, it will help the severely impacted real estate and manufacturing sectors, but the effect will not be significant. They stated, "If the labor market develops as we expect, with the unemployment rate about to rise sharply, then the weakness in consumer health will offset any demand boost from lower interest rates."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a report to clients on Thursday, "The upcoming potential policy changes, higher tariffs, deficit-financed tax cuts, and tighter immigration policies could all put upward pressure on prices.In fact, due to these policy changes, we predict that the core PCE inflation rate will hardly decline over the next two years. At next week's meeting, the Federal Reserve will also have to acknowledge the lack of progress on inflation, and we believe the Fed may pause interest rate cuts in January next year, with the risk that policy changes (during Trump's second term) could make this pause prolonged."