ChainCatcher message, important macro data overview for next week:January 30, 3:00 AM: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) as of January 29, expected 4.50%, previous 4.50%;January 30, 3:30 AM: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;January 30, 9:15 PM: Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of January 30, expected 2.75%, previous 3.00%;January 30, 9:45 PM: ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference;January 30, 9:30 PM: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 25 (in ten thousand), expected 22, previous 22.3;January 31, 9:30 PM: U.S. December core PCE price index year-on-year, expected 2.80%, previous 2.80%.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, there are 3 days until the next FOMC meeting, with a 2.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January and a 97.9% probability of no change.The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by March is 0.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 27.0%, and the probability of no change is 72.4%.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live analyst Adam released the market outlook for this week (January 27 to February 2). The upcoming Lunar New Year will lead to a temporary decrease in market influence from Chinese-speaking users. Despite frequent economic policy announcements from Trump during his first week in office, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week remains as high as 98%. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's interest rate decisions on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan's rate hike already implemented and expectations for continued rate cuts in the Eurozone.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating above $100,000, and the cooling of the TRUMP meme market has led to a dispersion of market enthusiasm. The options market shows a significant decrease in uncertainty, with the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) dropping below 55% for the week, and the full-term at-the-money IV falling below 60%. Recently, there has been a large volume of institutional bullish options trades, but after the rate hike was confirmed, institutions began to significantly increase their short positions. The Bitfinex interest rate market is performing steadily, and it is recommended to actively monitor suitable interest rate orders during market fluctuations.In terms of regulation, new EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures. Exchanges like Deribit must improve their KYC processes to operate normally. Important events this week include: Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision (22:45), Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision (05:30) and European Central Bank deposit facility rate (21:15), as well as Friday's U.S. December core PCE price index (21:30).

ChainCatcher news, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated on the X platform that the main reason for inflation is excessive money supply, believing that stopping money printing in the U.S. could lower interest rates and reactivate economic growth.In response, former Coinbase CTO Balaji mentioned that the power to set interest rates could be completely transferred from the Federal Reserve to the market, and referred to Bitfinex, which has implemented a mechanism overseas to replace centralized decision-making by central banks with a market-driven interest rate order book.

ChainCatcher news, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink revealed that he has discussed purchasing Bitcoin with some sovereign wealth funds, but did not disclose the names of the relevant sovereign wealth fund companies.Fink added that as concerns about a dollar crisis grow within the Federal Reserve, inflation worries have sparked interest in Bitcoin, and governments around the world have increased spending and stimulus measures in recent years. Analysts believe that the soaring inflation rate in the U.S. has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a historic pace, increasing debt interest payments and exacerbating fears of a "death spiral." Federal Reserve officials are still struggling to address the looming "stagflation nightmare" scenario.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, the executive order on digital assets signed by Trump excludes the Federal Reserve (FED) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from the cryptocurrency working group.Trump's new executive order may mean that the upcoming U.S. stablecoin legislation will not fall under the jurisdiction of the central bank.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts at a U.S. bank stated in a report that the dollar is likely to remain at a high level in the first half of the year, and then gradually decline from historically high valuation levels.They indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariff policy still suggests a strong dollar in the short term. They also mentioned that due to concerns about the persistence of U.S. inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to halt interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States slightly increased last week, indicating that employment may continue to grow steadily in January. The severe cold weather in most parts of the United States and the wildfires in Los Angeles may increase initial claims in the coming weeks.In addition to weather factors, the job market remains stable, keeping economic growth on a normal track. The Trump administration's crackdown on immigration, tax cuts, and tariff plans may lead to inflation, which has also intensified the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy direction.Economists say that large-scale deportations and restrictions on legal immigration could hinder the labor market. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week is not expected to result in an interest rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Financial Times, Dan Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), stated that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future, and there is even a possibility of an interest rate hike until Trump's policy direction becomes clear.Ivascyn pointed out that the latest consumer survey shows that inflation expectations have risen, and inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated. He believes that Trump's policies will have a positive impact on economic growth and productivity in the long term, but may bring pressure in the short term. The Federal Reserve will remain cautious until economic data and policy direction become clearer.

ChainCatcher news, Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown said in a report that the dollar weakened during the European trading session, but its good days are not over yet. He stated, "I still firmly believe in a bullish outlook for the dollar." The notion of "American exceptionalism" remains strong. Compared to other major central banks, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is lower, which should continue to support the dollar. The weak phase provides investors with an opportunity to buy the dollar. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, the U.S. economy is in a "sweet spot," but the market may be overly pessimistic about the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius stated in a new report released on Monday that the key issue for monetary policy is how strongly the Trump administration implements its import tariff agenda.Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice this year, in June and December, and will cut rates again in 2026.Jan Hatzius said, "But the risks around this forecast are generally tilted toward further easing, partly because even if the economy performs well, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may decide to cut rates before June, and partly because while a significant rate cut by the FOMC in the event of a sharp deterioration in economic data or risk sentiment is unlikely, it is far from out of reach."

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport released today's chart stating that this weekend, the launch of the TRUMP meme coin has sparked a trading frenzy on centralized exchanges, with major platforms listing the coin at a record pace. However, the subsequent launch of the MELANIA coin quickly reversed market sentiment, leading to a sharp drop in coin prices and significant losses for buyers on Sunday. This extreme volatility has driven a surge in overall trading volume, with the weekend trading volume on Binance, the world's largest exchange, soaring from $15 billion to $50 billion.We believe that the surge in trading volume is traceable. The dovish tone of last week's Federal Reserve meeting, combined with President Trump's positive support for cryptocurrencies, has laid the groundwork for further upward volatility in the market. As 2023 and 2024 hold significant meaning for the crypto industry, 2025 may continue or even surpass this exciting momentum.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America stated that as the global market approaches Donald Trump's inauguration, the U.S. economy remains resilient. The previously released employment data is strong, retail sales data is also robust, and the core inflation rate is at 3.2%, still at a high level within the range. The cyclical and structural dynamics of the U.S. economy are consistent with the natural interest rate, which is quite close to the current Federal Reserve funds rate, but inflation remains stubbornly above the target. Based on this alone, the Federal Reserve has reason to end the easing cycle. The impact of Trump 2.0 in the U.S. and other parts of the world carries significant uncertainty, and protectionist policies may affect inflation expectations. More concerning is that excessive fiscal stimulus could impact the potential for economic performance. Contrary to market pricing, Bank of America believes that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a group of stubborn bond traders are betting against the Federal Reserve, believing that the next move will be an interest rate hike rather than a cut. This bet emerged after the U.S. released a booming employment report on January 10, contrasting sharply with Wall Street's consensus that there will be at least one rate cut this year.Despite the mild inflation report released on Wednesday reinforcing the Fed's dovish stance and causing U.S. Treasury yields to retreat from multi-year highs, this counter-bet still exists. An institutional analysis shows that based on options related to the secured overnight financing rate, traders currently believe there is about a 25% chance the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year. Before the CPI data was released, these bets were as high as 30%. Until just over a week ago, a rate hike wasn't even being considered. Former New York Fed economist Phil Suttle expects the Fed to raise rates in September, stating, "This is not a crazy viewpoint."

ChainCatcher news, according to a Reuters survey: Among 102 economists, 65 expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two times or less this year (compared to 41 out of 97 economists who had the same expectation last December). (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the Federal Reserve can be very patient regarding further rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Jared Bernstein, chairman of the Biden Economic Advisory Council, warned before leaving office that if the Trump administration intervenes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy-making, it could trigger a rebound in inflation.On the same day, Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent promised to uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve during his confirmation hearing in Congress, emphasizing that the FOMC should maintain independence in monetary policy decisions.Bernstein analyzed that the large-scale tariffs, tax cuts for the wealthy, and the expulsion of undocumented immigrants proposed by Trump would all drive up prices, and further undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve would exacerbate inflation risks.