ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Gregory Faranello, the head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, stated that this is a very reliable report that supports the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to skip this month's meeting and possibly more meetings.At the transition between two administrations, this is also an important figure. The focus now shifts to inflation. With the new administration taking office, higher inflation data and a strong labor market will increase calls for interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, UOB economist Alvin Liew stated that the Bank of Japan has not finished raising interest rates, but the timing of future hikes is now expected to be influenced by wage growth next year and the clarity of Trump’s policies. This means that while the possibility of a rate hike in January is not completely ruled out, it now appears to be a low-probability event.Although the policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference did not provide forward guidance, Ueda emphasized that the wage increase situation in Japan in 2025 and considerations regarding Trump’s policies are key to the next decision. UOB expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% in March, which the bank believes will be the terminal rate. However, there is a significant risk that the rate hike could be postponed to April or later.

ChainCatcher message, CICC pointed out in the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the U.S. Economy": "Under the ordinary assumption scenario, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow down, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. In an extreme assumption scenario, the Federal Reserve's stance will turn 'hawkish' and restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation rising back above 5%."The article further states: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be above inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025."

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey shows that although nearly 90% of economists still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by the end of March next year, a slight majority of economists believe that the Bank of Japan will abandon further rate hikes this year. The published survey results highlight the challenges the Bank of Japan faces in advancing policy normalization, as most central banks globally tend to favor rate cuts, and there is uncertainty regarding the new political leadership's preferences for monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, after the widely expected decision by the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates, investors are now waiting for a press conference later today by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to see if his stance on seeking further rate hikes has changed.Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a research report: "As the Federal Reserve shifts towards easing monetary policy, some market participants are eager to see if there will be any changes in this stance." They also noted that Ueda's views on the recent appreciation of the yen and its impact on the economy and prices are worth paying attention to. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has rebounded above $59,000, but the momentum has weakened due to hints of further interest rate hikes in Japan. However, according to the CoinDesk20 index, BTC is still up 1% in the past 24 hours, while the broader cryptocurrency market has risen by about 0.9%.A series of U.S. economic data will be released this week, starting with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) later on Tuesday. Weak data will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which is expected to boost riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation develop as expected. Ueda stated that the economic environment remains accommodative, and even after the benchmark borrowing cost was raised at the end of July, the inflation-adjusted rate remains negative. This is the first time in decades, triggering a closure of yen carry trades and leading to instability in risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, influenced by global instability and hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian market has experienced a turbulent week as traders are digesting a lot.ANZ Chief Economist Adam Boyton stated that while he believes the RBA will not raise interest rates, the central bank's monetary policy committee seems to be considering the decision to raise rates more carefully than what the market pricing indicates. ANZ maintains its view that the RBA will wait until February to determine whether it will join other major central banks in cutting rates. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Rick Rieder, who is responsible for global fixed income and global asset allocation at BlackRock, pointed out that despite the good performance of the CPI index this week and the possibility that inflation is declining, he believes this is "the golden age of fixed income, not because interest rates will fall, but because you can earn substantial returns in your portfolio." Meanwhile, ironically, he wonders whether the sustained high interest rates will make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve its 2% inflation target, as the Fed has put a large amount of money into the hands of high-income households.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that the progress of labor market rebalancing has slowed, policies are restrictive, and they are monitoring whether it is sufficient. Inflation will remain high for some time, and if inflation stagnates or rebounds, they are willing to support the Federal Reserve in resuming interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that interest rate cuts seem to be a long way off, and some economies are even beginning to explore further rate hikes. The current tight market liquidity situation is expected to persist. There are no significant events in the crypto space that could impact the market, but the FTX claims and several hearings are worth paying attention to. The cryptocurrency market has been relatively weak recently, especially the altcoins represented by ETH.The entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a V-shaped reversal for two consecutive weeks, with volatility significantly decreasing. Dvol has rebounded, and the current short- to medium-term IV has dropped to around 50%, significantly below the average level.Key events this week:5/14 TuesdayFederal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB Governing Council member Knot will jointly attend a meetingOpenAI press conferenceJudicial results of Tornado Cash developer and Samourai Wallet co-founder5/15 WednesdayU.S. April CPIU.S. April retail sales dataFTX opens claims window5/16 ThursdayFederal Reserve Governor Bowman speaksU.S. initial jobless claims for the week5/17 FridaySeveral FOMC voting members speak

ChainCatcher news, Bitget General Manager Gracy Chen shared her views on the future market at the third VIP private meeting. She first pointed out that while regulation is tightening, it will not completely suppress industry development. Once the cryptocurrency market reaches a certain scale and user base, it will drive the construction of relevant frameworks. Secondly, the Federal Reserve has slowed down its interest rate hikes in the first half of the year and will gradually enter a rate-cutting phase in the second half. Finally, she noted that the entry of traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity has brought positive signals to BTC spot ETF applications, which will bring more incremental funds to the market.In addition, more rights and benefits will be empowered to VIP users in the second half of this year, such as: priority subscription for Launchpad and fund shares, whitelist for staking and lending, Bitcard (digital currency Visa credit card), and private wealth management products in the fund supermarket (for VIP3 and above), etc.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that Fed staff maintain their forecast of a "mild" recession in 2023. Almost all officials expect more interest rate hikes in 2023. Those in favor of rate increases point out that the labor market is very tight, economic momentum exceeds expectations, and there is no evidence that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Nick Timiraos from the Federal Reserve News Agency, Federal Reserve official Kashkari recently stated that he may support keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, allowing officials more time to assess the impact of past rate hikes and the inflation outlook. In an interview, he said, "I am open to the idea that we can slow down (the pace of rate hikes) a bit from now on." Federal Reserve officials have hinted that the decision on whether to raise rates at the policy meeting on June 13-14 could be a thrilling one.Currently, within the Federal Reserve, a few people say that the degree of slowdown in inflation and economic activity is not sufficient to justify keeping interest rates unchanged. However, others, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, have suggested that they may pause to better study the potential lagging effects of rapid rate hikes. But he also stated, "I oppose announcing in any form that we have ended rate hikes, as we still need more information to assess." He concluded by saying that if high inflation persists and requires the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period or continue raising rates, then the pressures on the banking sector "could become more severe." (Source link)

ChainCatcher News, Bank of America stated that, overall, the series of data since the May FOMC meeting has left us satisfied with our own Federal Reserve expectations. To some extent, the strong employment report in April raised the likelihood of a rate hike in June, while this week's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) report, inflation, and initial unemployment claims all support the Fed's pause in rate hikes in June.Therefore, our baseline scenario remains that the Fed will pause rate hikes in June and keep the rate level unchanged before starting to cut rates early next year. (Source link)

ChainCatcher message, Musk stated on social media: "The Fed's data is too lagging, a mild recession has already arrived. It's not just the canary in the coal mine (Silicon Valley Bank) that has died, but a staunch miner (Credit Suisse) has also perished, and the graveyard will soon be filled! Further rate hikes will trigger a severe economic recession. Remember my words." (source link)

ChainCatcher news, during an interview with Bloomberg Television, Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. founder Mike Novogratz stated that he expects gold, the euro, and cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum to outperform competitive investments, as the Federal Reserve begins to ease interest rate hikes following recent bank failures that led to potential credit tightening.Additionally, Novogratz mentioned that the clearest trade is to remain long on gold, the euro, Bitcoin, and Ethereum—these assets should perform well in a scenario where the Federal Reserve stops raising rates and then cuts them. If interest rates decline again, Bitcoin will be in the "best position."If the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate hikes, he expects Bitcoin to reach $40,000. (Bloomberg)