ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Japan's latest core inflation data has exceeded market expectations, sparking discussions about the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising interest rates, which could impact risk assets including cryptocurrencies. The data shows that Japan's core CPI rose 3% year-on-year in February, down from 3.2% in January but still above the market expectation of 2.9%. Meanwhile, Japan's overall CPI fell from 4% to 3.7%, but still far exceeds the BOJ's target inflation rate of 2%.Since November 2024, Japan's inflation rate has consistently been higher than that of the United States, currently exceeding by nearly 100 basis points, marking the largest gap since 2015. Coupled with the wage pressure from the "Shunto" spring labor negotiations, market expectations for a BOJ interest rate hike have intensified. The anticipation of a rate hike has strengthened the yen, but if the yen appreciates significantly, it may trigger market risk aversion, thereby putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.As of the time of writing, the USD/JPY exchange rate is 149.22, having rebounded nearly 300 basis points since March 11, indicating a short-term weakening of the yen. However, the yield spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-year government bonds has narrowed, with Japanese 10-year bond yields maintaining above 1.5% and 30-year bond yields breaking 2.5%, both at multi-decade highs, which may support a stronger yen. The market is focused on the future direction of BOJ policy and its impact on global financial markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, due to Nasdaq futures indicating a continued decline in tech stocks and the strengthening yen raising concerns about a similar risk-averse sentiment in August, Bitcoin fell below $89,000 during Tuesday's early European session. Data shows that Bitcoin dropped to a low of $88,500, the highest level since mid-November.Nasdaq futures fell by 0.3%, indicating that the trend of declines for three consecutive days will continue. Since February 18, the tech stock index has dropped over 4%. The safe-haven currency yen is trading at 149.38 against the dollar, poised to challenge the nearly three-month high of 148.84 set on Monday.As the market bets on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, the yen has risen nearly 6% in six weeks. The comments on interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan and the strengthening yen evoke memories of last July: at that time, the yen soared due to the central bank's rate hike, ultimately triggering widespread risk-averse sentiment that caused Bitcoin to plummet from about $65,000 to $50,000 within days.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, data released earlier today showed that Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated in January, reaching 3.2% year-on-year, the fastest growth in 19 months.The stronger-than-expected growth reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates as inflationary pressures persist. The rise in prices seems to align with the central bank's forecasts. Analysts pointed out that inflation in the service sector did not accelerate, rising 1.4% year-on-year in January, compared to 1.6% in December; however, overall, goods inflation did not slow down.For the past three years, Japan's inflation rate has remained above the central bank's 2% target. This has prompted a shift in monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda previously hinted that if wage growth continues to support consumption, allowing companies to raise wages and maintain price increases, the central bank may further raise interest rates.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the reasons for raising interest rates need to rely on evidence of an overheating economy.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that "it is possible to raise interest rates at some point in the next 12 months," but he also emphasized that this scenario is not his core prediction, just a possibility he sees.He mentioned that the bond market indicates inflation may be higher than people think, and if we look back to the U.S. Treasury market a year and a half ago, the U.S. was experiencing very high inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the timing and magnitude of interest rate hikes will further depend on economic, financial, and price conditions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Platts analyst Tim Murray stated in a report that the tariff and immigration proposals of U.S. President-elect Trump could exacerbate inflation, which might force the Federal Reserve to halt interest rate cuts or even raise rates. This capital market strategist indicated that this could lead to significant market volatility.He stated, "The energy and financial sectors may benefit from a more favorable regulatory environment, while renewable energy companies could face pressure if parts of the Inflation Reduction Act are repealed." The tough trade policies of increasing tariffs could impact non-U.S. stocks and lead to volatility in the affected industries.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Gregory Faranello, the head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, stated that this is a very reliable report that supports the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to skip this month's meeting and possibly more meetings.At the transition between two administrations, this is also an important figure. The focus now shifts to inflation. With the new administration taking office, higher inflation data and a strong labor market will increase calls for interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, UOB economist Alvin Liew stated that the Bank of Japan has not finished raising interest rates, but the timing of future hikes is now expected to be influenced by wage growth next year and the clarity of Trump’s policies. This means that while the possibility of a rate hike in January is not completely ruled out, it now appears to be a low-probability event.Although the policy statement and Governor Ueda's press conference did not provide forward guidance, Ueda emphasized that the wage increase situation in Japan in 2025 and considerations regarding Trump’s policies are key to the next decision. UOB expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% in March, which the bank believes will be the terminal rate. However, there is a significant risk that the rate hike could be postponed to April or later.

ChainCatcher message, CICC pointed out in the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the U.S. Economy": "Under the ordinary assumption scenario, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow down, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. In an extreme assumption scenario, the Federal Reserve's stance will turn 'hawkish' and restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation rising back above 5%."The article further states: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be above inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025."

ChainCatcher news, a Reuters survey shows that although nearly 90% of economists still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by the end of March next year, a slight majority of economists believe that the Bank of Japan will abandon further rate hikes this year. The published survey results highlight the challenges the Bank of Japan faces in advancing policy normalization, as most central banks globally tend to favor rate cuts, and there is uncertainty regarding the new political leadership's preferences for monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, after the widely expected decision by the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates, investors are now waiting for a press conference later today by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to see if his stance on seeking further rate hikes has changed.Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a research report: "As the Federal Reserve shifts towards easing monetary policy, some market participants are eager to see if there will be any changes in this stance." They also noted that Ueda's views on the recent appreciation of the yen and its impact on the economy and prices are worth paying attention to. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has rebounded above $59,000, but the momentum has weakened due to hints of further interest rate hikes in Japan. However, according to the CoinDesk20 index, BTC is still up 1% in the past 24 hours, while the broader cryptocurrency market has risen by about 0.9%.A series of U.S. economic data will be released this week, starting with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) later on Tuesday. Weak data will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which is expected to boost riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation develop as expected. Ueda stated that the economic environment remains accommodative, and even after the benchmark borrowing cost was raised at the end of July, the inflation-adjusted rate remains negative. This is the first time in decades, triggering a closure of yen carry trades and leading to instability in risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, influenced by global instability and hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian market has experienced a turbulent week as traders are digesting a lot.ANZ Chief Economist Adam Boyton stated that while he believes the RBA will not raise interest rates, the central bank's monetary policy committee seems to be considering the decision to raise rates more carefully than what the market pricing indicates. ANZ maintains its view that the RBA will wait until February to determine whether it will join other major central banks in cutting rates. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Rick Rieder, who is responsible for global fixed income and global asset allocation at BlackRock, pointed out that despite the good performance of the CPI index this week and the possibility that inflation is declining, he believes this is "the golden age of fixed income, not because interest rates will fall, but because you can earn substantial returns in your portfolio." Meanwhile, ironically, he wonders whether the sustained high interest rates will make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve its 2% inflation target, as the Fed has put a large amount of money into the hands of high-income households.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that the progress of labor market rebalancing has slowed, policies are restrictive, and they are monitoring whether it is sufficient. Inflation will remain high for some time, and if inflation stagnates or rebounds, they are willing to support the Federal Reserve in resuming interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that interest rate cuts seem to be a long way off, and some economies are even beginning to explore further rate hikes. The current tight market liquidity situation is expected to persist. There are no significant events in the crypto space that could impact the market, but the FTX claims and several hearings are worth paying attention to. The cryptocurrency market has been relatively weak recently, especially the altcoins represented by ETH.The entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a V-shaped reversal for two consecutive weeks, with volatility significantly decreasing. Dvol has rebounded, and the current short- to medium-term IV has dropped to around 50%, significantly below the average level.Key events this week:5/14 TuesdayFederal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB Governing Council member Knot will jointly attend a meetingOpenAI press conferenceJudicial results of Tornado Cash developer and Samourai Wallet co-founder5/15 WednesdayU.S. April CPIU.S. April retail sales dataFTX opens claims window5/16 ThursdayFederal Reserve Governor Bowman speaksU.S. initial jobless claims for the week5/17 FridaySeveral FOMC voting members speak