ChainCatcher news, recently, Huobi HTX held a Twitter Space themed "Can we still catch the bus in the crypto market downturn?"Crypto KOLs J@Crypto, SteveRen, AK, 527, and Big Brother were invited to attend and shared trading strategies behind the significant drop in the crypto market. The five guests generally believe that Trump's tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff policies, combined with the Federal Reserve's high interest rates of 4.25%-4.50%, have hindered global capital flows and reduced market liquidity.At the same time, the Solana celebrity coin controversy, the Bybit theft incident, and the repeated rejection of state-level Bitcoin reserve bills in the U.S. have led to a concentrated outbreak of negative news, causing the crypto market to decline continuously. J@Crypto believes that the downturn is a short-term shock, and long-term confidence remains. Institutions and traditional funds are slowly positioning themselves, which will extend the bull market cycle. SteveRen analyzed from a technical perspective that Bitcoin has reached the bull-bear boundary EMA200 moving average, and a sharp decline is unlikely to see a quick rebound in the short term.From the perspective of ecological construction, Ethereum is superior to Solana and SUI, with certain potential for an explosion. Big Brother optimistically believes that the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year may boost BTC to new highs. In extreme market conditions, prioritizing BTC with a 70%-80% position allocation, while managing positions and risks, can outperform most people. 527 believes that BTC will oscillate at a high level within the range of 70k-105k. During this period, there may be innovations and explosions in the on-chain ecosystem. Large positions can be allocated to wealth management or held in BTC, while small funds can seize on-chain opportunities.In contrast, AK is more pessimistic. He believes that the bull market ended last year, and the bear market has arrived. Altcoin liquidity has dried up, leaving no room for rebounds; funds can be placed in wealth management products on exchanges like Huobi HTX, such as USDD with up to 20% annualized returns; or one can wait for lower prices to heavily invest in BTC.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Monex Europe analysts stated in a report that given the cautious expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the dollar has little room to continue its recent decline. Swap rates reflect an expected 1.5 rate cuts this year, but considering sticky inflation, the Fed's rate cuts may be smaller. A significant depreciation of the dollar would require "a fundamental reassessment of the uniqueness of U.S. economic growth or a perfect anti-inflation phenomenon," but both scenarios are unlikely to occur in the near term.However, the possibility of a significant rebound for the dollar this week is also low. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released on Wednesday may seem somewhat outdated, so the fate of the dollar will depend more on the unpredictable Trump.

ChainCatcher news, according to Fortune, Patrick Liou, head of institutional trading at the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, stated that non-farm data once led to a rise in Bitcoin, but then fell again due to increased uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year. The current trend in the crypto market may depend on expectations for future rate cuts.Generally, lower interest rates are favorable for cryptocurrencies, as loose economic conditions encourage investors to return to risk assets. However, the Federal Reserve has not provided a clear direction moving forward and is still observing whether to cut rates, leading crypto traders to be in a state of hesitation. "They are still uncertain because inflation has decreased, but the pace of decline is not fast."

ChainCatcher news, today the U.S. January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded 143,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 170,000, marking a new low since October last year. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee commented on the macro data, stating, "This is a solid non-farm payroll report. It looks like we are about to achieve full employment. After recent observations, I am optimistic that tariffs will ultimately not be a significant barrier to trade. I am satisfied with the economic development path. Tariffs may become a 'wrench' in the supply chain. Wage growth is roughly in line with the 2% inflation level. Long-term market-oriented inflation expectations show that the market believes the Federal Reserve will keep inflation under control at 2%.""The current Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates, but in the next 12 to 18 months, rates will be slightly lower than current levels. The pace of rate cuts will slow under greater uncertainty. On the path to achieving the 2% inflation target, we may temporarily keep rates unchanged. The neutral balance point for rates has declined. Stability in rates needs to be achieved on a 'prudent' timetable. I do not believe the Federal Reserve will play a role in any sovereign wealth fund." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analysts at ING, Francesco Pesole, stated in a report that if the later released data shows that the U.S. core inflation in December remains high, the dollar may appreciate.He mentioned that the market generally expects the month-on-month core inflation rate to be between 0.2% and 0.3%, with an average expectation of 0.25%. ING expects the data to record a growth of 0.3%, which may intensify expectations for the Federal Reserve to take cautious measures to cut interest rates, thereby benefiting the appreciation of the dollar.He stated that before considering the prospect of President-elect Trump's imposition of trade tariffs, high inflation would make investors uneasy about price pressures.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, influenced by better-than-expected U.S. employment data, Goldman Sachs has lowered its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing the first rate cut expectation from March to June, and now expects only two rate cuts in 2025.Bank of America is more cautious, believing that the Federal Reserve may extend its pause on rate cuts, and there is even a risk of rate hikes. The market is focused on the CPI data set to be released on January 15, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% for the fifth consecutive month potentially further strengthening hawkish expectations.Since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September 2023, Bitcoin has risen over 50%, once breaking through the historical high of $108,000. The market generally expects Bitcoin to test the support level of $92,000, which has consistently provided support since last November.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data reached 256,000, far exceeding the expected 164,000, indicating signs of an overheating economy. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, coupled with concerns about inflation that may arise from the potential reactivation of tariff policies from the Trump era.Despite macro pressures and ongoing Silk Road FUD, Bitcoin and Ethereum support levels have temporarily stabilized at $91,000 and $3,100, respectively. The volatility in the options market has gently declined, maintaining a slight bearish bias only before Trump's inauguration. This week, PPI, CPI, and unemployment data will be released sequentially. Against the backdrop of a continuously warming U.S. economy, this week will be a critical period to test the inflation hedging function of cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, after the non-farm payroll data was released, Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, down from the previous forecast of 75 basis points. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, driven by significant growth in the business services sector, job vacancies in the U.S. rose to a six-month high in November, while demand for employees in other industries has become more complex.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that vacancies increased from a revised 7.8 million in October to 8.1 million, exceeding all analysts' expectations. The growth was almost entirely driven by professional and business services as well as finance and insurance.The latest job vacancy figures indicate a easing of the downward trend seen over the past three years. The labor market now appears to be more stable, while inflation has also shown stubbornness in recent months, reducing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.After the data was released, traders no longer fully digested bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates before July.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the market in January 2025 will face multiple risks and opportunities against the backdrop of Trump's inauguration and the release of non-farm data. Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer of Angeles Investments, pointed out that the period from November to January is usually a strong performance time for the market. Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index performs well during the last five trading days of December and early January, known as the "Santa Claus rally." The upcoming employment data and corporate earnings reports will provide key insights into the economic health of the market.Helen Given, Deputy Head of Trading at Monex USA, emphasized that the inauguration of a new government is often accompanied by high uncertainty. The trade policies of the Trump administration could have a significant impact on the global currency market, and the actual effects of policy implementation remain to be seen. Given believes that investors need to pay attention to the actual implementation of proposed policies, which may affect currencies such as the euro, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar.Damon Polistina, Head of Research at Eaglebrook Advisors, mentioned that a pro-crypto Trump administration could bring positive catalysts to the crypto market. The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts may support risk assets like cryptocurrencies, and any positive economic data will further drive market momentum.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve showed moderate performance in November, marking a step in the right direction for policymakers seeking further interest rate cuts in 2025. This data should help alleviate the concerns of Federal Reserve officials regarding the inflation outlook.Federal Reserve officials released their latest forecasts this week, indicating that prices and interest rates will be higher in 2025. These new forecasts triggered a sell-off in U.S. stocks as investors had already priced in expectations of policy tightening. Details regarding prices show a general slowdown in inflation. Core service prices (a closely watched category excluding housing and energy) rose 0.2% month-on-month, the lowest level since August. Core goods prices (excluding food and energy) declined for the first time in three months.

ChainCatcher news, Monex Europe senior foreign exchange market analyst Nick Rees stated that the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision marks the beginning of the FOMC's extended pause on rate cuts, although it is still too early to say this definitively.It is now expected that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold at least until the first half of 2025. If this is correct, it should support the dollar's upward movement in the coming months.

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expressed his views on X, detailing why he believes the current bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market will continue.Despite the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement causing a short-term shock to the market—reducing next year's rate cut expectations from 4 times to 2 times—Hougan believes this is merely a brief interlude in the bull market process. He pointed out that the cryptocurrency market has developed an endogenous momentum independent of Federal Reserve policy, with four core trends continuously driving industry development:Washington's regulatory attitude has clearly shifted to a more supportive stance.Institutional investors are entering the market at an accelerated pace, with ETF funds continuing to flow in.Government and corporate entities are strategically increasing their Bitcoin holdings.Breakthroughs in programmable blockchain technology.From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's 10-day exponential moving average (approximately $102,000) continues to stay above the 20-day moving average (approximately $99,000). Hougan stated that this classic technical indicator has historically reflected market trends well.Hougan emphasized that the cryptocurrency market is in a new multi-year bull market cycle, and he expects that a 50bps rate cut will not change this.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday a scheduled rate cut of 25 basis points, but significantly raised future policy rate expectations and inflation expectations, now expecting only two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points next year, halving the previous expectation.According to 4E monitoring, after the release of the Fed's dot plot and economic outlook, risk aversion sentiment surged, causing all three major U.S. stock indices to decline. The S&P 500 index fell by 2.95%, the Dow Jones dropped by 2.58%, marking its longest losing streak since 1974 at ten consecutive days, and the Nasdaq fell by 3.56%. Tesla dropped over 8%, leading the decline among tech giants. Cryptocurrency-related stocks also fell broadly, with MSTR down 9.52% and Coinbase down 10.2%.The Fed's actions have dragged down the U.S. stock market, leading to a significant correction in the crypto market. BTC fell below $100,000, with Powell's remark that "the Fed does not allow nor intends to hold Bitcoin" intensifying selling pressure, resulting in a Bitcoin decline of up to 6.2%, reporting at $99,235 before the deadline. Ethereum briefly dipped to $3,542, a drop of 7.27%, while altcoins generally experienced double-digit declines. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $842 million, deepening market panic.In the forex and commodities sector, the Fed's drastic cut in rate cut expectations pushed the dollar index up over 1% to a two-year high; gold prices fell over 1% to a one-month low; U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, pushing oil prices higher, but the slowing pace of rate cuts dampened oil demand outlook, causing oil prices to rise and then gradually erase gains.After announcing a rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% as expected in this meeting, the Fed's released "dot plot" indicated that only two more rate cuts are expected by 2025, halving the planned number of cuts compared to the September dot plot, with a hawkish stance exceeding expectations, leading to extreme fear in the market. Fed officials also expect two more rate cuts in 2026 and one more in 2027.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, based on CME Federal Reserve observation data, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range at this week's FOMC meeting, marking the second rate cut since November, with the current expected probability as high as 93.4%.Luis Buenaventura, head of cryptocurrency at GCash, stated that since the rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market, the direct impact of this policy adjustment on cryptocurrency prices will be relatively limited. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin experiences a 50% increase within 60 days, there is about a two-thirds probability of achieving an additional 35% increase in the following two months.Neal Wen, global business development director at Kronos Research, added that in a low-interest-rate environment, institutional investors tend to view crypto assets as an alternative to traditional investments. Min Jung, a research analyst at Presto Labs, pointed out that the market focus has shifted to the policy speech content and the latest economic projections dot plot from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which will provide important guidance for the direction of monetary policy in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, the S&P 500 halted a three-week winning streak last week, falling 0.64% for the week; the Dow Jones dropped a cumulative 1.82% over the week, marking seven consecutive trading days of decline; the Nasdaq gained a cumulative 0.34% over the week, breaking the 20,000 point mark for the first time in history.Bitcoin rose back above $100,000 last week, setting a record for the longest seven-week winning streak since 2021. The altcoin market saw a decrease in enthusiasm, with a general pullback. Over the week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.115 billion, Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of about $712.7 million, and the supply of stablecoins increased by $2.1 billion, indicating a sustained positive outlook for funds. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin surged suddenly, breaking its historical high to reach $106,648, with the top ten cryptocurrencies also seeing an increase of nearly 1% to 4%.In the forex commodities sector, the US dollar index performed strongly last week, breaking above 107 on Friday and continuously refreshing a two-week high, with a weekly increase of nearly 1%, marking the best weekly performance in a month, while non-USD currencies fell cumulatively over the week. International oil prices surged across the board last week due to geopolitical tensions, halting two weeks of declines, with US oil rising over 6% for the week and Brent oil increasing by 4.54%. Benefiting from market expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, spot gold rose a cumulative 0.56% over the week.The most anticipated economic event this week is the FOMC meeting to be held by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed by the announcement of interest rate decisions and quarterly economic forecasts on Thursday. The market has already fully priced in expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with the real focus being on clues regarding the future direction of Federal Reserve policy. The market expects that rate cuts next year will be more cautious and gradual, with a possibility of pausing rate cuts in January.Additionally, this week marks the last "central bank super week" of 2024, with up to 25 central banks, including those from Japan, the UK, and Sweden, meeting in the same week. The decisions from some key central banks may trigger market volatility, especially in the fast-paced forex and commodities markets. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, BTC has reached a historic high of $105,000, rising 20% in the past month. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, and there are rumors that Trump may use Bitcoin as a reserve asset for the U.S. "from day one."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Tianfeng Securities released a research report indicating that the market has strong expectations for interest rate cuts. At the beginning of the week, after the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for November, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 86%, further increasing the expectations for rate cuts within the year.Subsequently, the U.S. CPI data for November met market expectations, bringing the market's anticipation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December close to 100%. At the same time, the market also increased its bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January next year.