ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha stated in its latest report that following last week's relatively resilient performance of Bitcoin, with a weekly decline of only 0.65%, nearly flat, and far better than traditional risk assets, it is clear that this is merely a delayed downward reaction.Despite the BTC/S&P 500 index ratio soaring to nearly 5% below historical highs, indicating strong relative strength, the market has now seen a sell-off. We believe that stocks are becoming deeply oversold, and a short-term rebound may narrow this gap in the medium term. However, trends in short-term financing and open interest also suggest that Bitcoin is about to experience volatility.Nevertheless, structurally, a solid foundation that performed well in the late second quarter seems to be forming. As macro volatility cools, ETF inflows recover, and sovereign narratives resurface, Bitcoin may further decouple from stocks and reclaim its leadership position in global risk assets.Additionally, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid uncertain inflation dynamics, the overall situation suggests that trade policy, rather than monetary policy, may pose a greater risk to economic momentum in the coming quarters.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, a tariff storm is sweeping the globe, and market panic is spreading, intensifying the sell-off of risk assets. Following a nearly 10% drop last week, U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower on Monday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures at one point falling over 5%. As of the time of writing, the declines have narrowed to 2.39% and 3.17%, respectively, while Dow futures fell 2.42%. The Asia-Pacific stock markets also opened with significant losses, with the Nikkei index plummeting 8.1%, the South Korean KOSPI index dropping 5.14%, and all three major A-share indices falling over 4%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index opened down 9.28%.The cryptocurrency market also experienced a significant downturn, closely mirroring the performance of U.S. stocks. Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly around $83,000 over the weekend, but began to break through key support levels early Monday morning, hitting a low of $77,100, marking a nearly one-month low. Other major cryptocurrencies also saw sharp declines, with Ethereum dropping 13.5% to $1,580. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization shrank from $2.4 trillion to $2.16 trillion, a decrease of 10%. The total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours was $886 million. The market is in a state of extreme panic.The commodities market also did not escape unscathed. Spot gold fell below the psychological level of $3,000, hitting a low of $2,971. U.S. oil dropped to $59.80 per barrel, down 12% from last week's high, marking a new low since April 2021.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC, Citigroup analyst Kate Moore stated that investors should now steer clear of risk assets following Trump's announcement of tariff policies.

ChainCatcher news, Trump announced a comprehensive tariff rate of 10%, lower than market expectations, leading to a broad rally in risk assets. The Nasdaq futures rose more than 2% after hours in the US stock market, the DXY dollar index briefly fell by 50 points, and Bitcoin surged over $1500 in a short time. Spot gold initially fell and then rose. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Matt Weller, Global Market Research Director at StoneX, emphasized in a recent report that the market's aversion to uncertainty is an old Wall Street adage. The ambiguity of tariff statements has undoubtedly severely impacted risk appetite. Once the dust settles, risk assets and the dollar may experience a brief rebound. However, he warned that if Trump continues to escalate tariffs after April 2, any rebound in risk assets will be short-lived, unless traders are convinced that these disruptive economic policies have been completely ended.Meanwhile, Jed Ellerbroek, Portfolio Manager at Argent Capital, observed that this uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is driving funds into low-volatility and value stocks, while the weak performance of tech giants in recent weeks confirms the market's defensive mindset. He believes that improving visibility on tariff policies is a necessary prerequisite to reversing this risk-averse sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, the U.S. stock market opened slightly higher, bringing much-anticipated optimism to traders. A key factor preventing risk assets from declining is the possibility that the U.S. government and Trump may adjust the new round of trade tariff plans.By analyzing the short-term BTC price trends, traders are focusing on the $90,000 key resistance level. Given Bitcoin's strong historical performance, market participants have high expectations for April.Anonymous analyst Daan Crypto Trades stated that this rebound in BTC can still maintain a solid spot premium trading. If it can hold this level while slowly returning to the previous range (above $90,000), it is expected to reach new highs again.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital published an analysis stating that one of the fastest declines in the U.S. stock market may have passed, with JPMorgan and an increasing number of strategists telling their clients that improved market sentiment and historically favorable seasonal factors are working together.Boosted by Trump's comments on tariff exemptions, BTC briefly broke through $88,000, leading to a short-term market rebound. Although the second quarter is typically one of the strongest periods for risk assets, the options market remains cautious, with bullish skew expected to become evident only in June. Investors are focused on this Friday's quarterly options expiration and the upcoming PCE inflation data, which may become the next key catalyst.

ChainCatcher news, after the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in tapering, Bitcoin rebounded from below $83,000 and briefly broke through $88,000. Shubh Varma, CEO of the crypto research platform Hyblock Capital, pointed out that the slowdown in tapering may enhance liquidity, benefiting cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. However, concerns over the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy have been weighing on the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Some analysts believe that technically, BTC may need to dip to $70,000 before it can restart its upward trend. Additionally, the Federal Reserve observation tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the federal funds futures prices reflect an 89.1% probability of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard stated that despite significant positive developments in the cryptocurrency space, global tariff concerns will continue to put pressure on the market.Before tariff-related issues are resolved, risk assets may lack direction, which could occur between April 2 and July. If the tariff issues are resolved, it will provide a positive catalyst for the market.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research published that despite the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, the Bitcoin market may still face upward resistance in the short term. The research institution pointed out that as long as the Bitcoin price remains below the resistance range of $90,000-$92,000, the overall market may continue to be in a consolidation phase.The Federal Reserve has lowered its growth expectations and slightly slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT). Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the recent rise in inflation may be temporary. Although this provides short-term support for risk assets, 10x Research believes that investors may remain cautious ahead of the Trump tariff announcement on April 2 and the start of the U.S. corporate earnings season on April 11. The report also noted that weakened consumer confidence and a deteriorating real estate market could lead to poor performance during the earnings season, and market structure indicators remain sluggish, suggesting that this rebound may struggle to gain significant momentum or push Bitcoin back into a broader bullish sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, despite the volatility in the crypto market, BlackRock's head of digital assets Robert Mitchnick emphasized in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box that Bitcoin is not a high-risk asset, but rather a "global, scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized" token.Mitchnick pointed out that some research and commentary within the industry depict Bitcoin as a risk asset, leading to self-fulfilling volatility in the market. He believes that the impact of a U.S. economic recession on Bitcoin is overstated and could even serve as a catalyst for it. Furthermore, he stated that despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin has still risen about 15% since last November, and called 2024 a "historic year," asserting that Bitcoin's long-term trend makes it "digital gold."

ChainCatcher news, Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that the market is focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, believing it could provide support for the market. Some believe that if the end of the balance sheet reduction plan (i.e., quantitative tightening) is announced, it could have a positive impact on the market.The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Therefore, the focus will be on how policymakers plan to advance the quantitative tightening program, as there are concerns that this could affect the system's liquidity, while the Treasury is working to address the ongoing debt ceiling issue. Additionally, the market will be watching the economic forecast summary.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick stated that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is primarily influenced by the pressure from broader risk assets, rather than issues within the cryptocurrency itself. "From a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin's performance is highly correlated with the 'seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin' portfolio," Kendrick noted in an email on Tuesday, "Tesla performed the worst, while Meta and Apple performed the best, with the rest being similar to Bitcoin."Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's rebound will depend on two main catalysts: a recovery in risk assets overall or Bitcoin-specific positive news (such as sovereign purchases). He pointed out that clearer tariff policies or a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve would help boost the market, "the probability of a rate cut in the May meeting rising from the current 50% to 75% could trigger a rebound." Although Bitcoin may quickly test the $69,000 support level if it falls below $76,500 in the short term, he still maintains a target forecast of $200,000 by the end of 2025.Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be a significant test for Bitcoin. Rohit Jain, Managing Director of CoinDCX Ventures, stated that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rates as expected, it could lead to Bitcoin testing the $70,000 support level.

ChainCatcher news, economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have raised the risk of an economic recession this year from 30% in early 2025 to 40%.The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts wrote, "Due to extreme policies in the U.S., we believe the risk of the U.S. falling into recession this year is significant."Previous news, Morgan Stanley economists downgraded their economic growth expectations last week and raised their inflation expectations. The bank predicts that the GDP growth rate will be only 1.5% in 2025 and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, U.S. job growth in February fell short of expectations, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a dovish stance, as the need for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy could boost global stock markets and cryptocurrencies.However, Nexo analysts believe that the ongoing inflation risks related to tariffs and supply chain disruptions remain factors that could keep the Federal Reserve cautious.Additionally, Wincent senior executive Paul Howard stated that Friday's employment report, which was below expectations, supports the view that interest rate cuts may be necessary to stimulate the economy. He also noted that reducing deficit costs could be a top priority for the U.S. government, which would have a favorable impact on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Cointelegraph, a survey by Bitpanda shows that women are increasingly interested in cryptocurrency investments. Despite a lack of industry knowledge, most prefer long-term strategies and low-risk assets like Bitcoin.The survey indicates that 50% of female cryptocurrency investors prioritize long-term financial growth, with 49% holding digital assets for up to five years and 39% planning to hold for more than five years. Among the 1,400 investors surveyed, over 54% made their first investment in Bitcoin or Ethereum.In the past year, female investors have seen an average growth of 8.1%, but the lack of education remains a major challenge for women adopting mainstream cryptocurrencies. Over 81% of respondents admitted to lacking investment experience, with 24% of female investors citing a lack of investment knowledge as their biggest challenge, while 41% pointed to funding limitations.

ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten stated that against the backdrop of increased volatility in the bond market, the European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates from 4.5% to 2.65% on Thursday, continuing its easing policy. As the anticipated easing policy approaches, the market is re-pricing the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least three times in 2025.The upcoming easing policy from the European Central Bank will only intensify the trend of global liquidity easing, providing a bullish signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.Previous news, the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, with two more cuts anticipated within the year.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Trump announced a "25% or higher" tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips, which companies can avoid by relocating to the U.S. He also emphasized that U.S. auto exports are treated unfairly and announced tariffs on cars starting April 2. The U.S.-China AI competition has once again become a focal point, with DeepSeek seeking external financing, attracting attention from institutional investors like Alibaba, which may accelerate the competitive threat to U.S. AI giants.In the cryptocurrency sector, altcoins have gained attention since Trump's administration, with multiple altcoin ETF applications submitted to the SEC. Brazil has approved the world's first spot XRP ETF, which could propel the U.S. to become a global cryptocurrency hub.In the options market, there is strong demand for high Delta bullish Bitcoin options from February to April, with 25 Delta implied volatility leaning bullish, suggesting the market may be preparing for a second wave of a bull market. As inflation concerns ease, the S&P 500 hits new highs, and the dollar index retreats to 107, the macro environment increasingly supports risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, stated in a recent report that Bitcoin has declined for five consecutive weekends, but this trend is expected to change this weekend. A slight increase this weekend could trigger ETF inflows on Monday, pushing its price back to $100,000 and then up to $102,500.The last few weekends (from Friday at 5 PM to Sunday at the same time, New York time) have been particularly tough for Bitcoin, with negative news putting pressure on it. A key event was the DeepSeek news over the weekend of January 25 to 26, followed by the weekend of February 1 to 2, when Bitcoin was hit by tariff news from Canada and Mexico.It noted: "This is not 'normal', this weekend (February 15 to 16) will be 'different', as the negative events have already occurred, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% this week, which is a positive signal for risk assets like Bitcoin. Lower yields often relieve the pressure on speculative investments, making a rebound more likely."