ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated that the Chinese stock market continued to decline today, with the China A50 index dropping another 7%, down 17% from recent highs. The lack of fiscal stimulus has severely impacted investor sentiment. However, the U.S. stock market has not been affected by developments in Asia. Despite uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections and the exclusion of interest rate cuts in 2024 following the non-farm payroll report, the U.S. stock market continues to rise to new highs. The bond market currently expects two rate cuts in 2024, down from three just a week ago.Despite the escalating turmoil in the Middle East and domestic challenges related to the U.S. elections, the U.S. stock market continues to steadily climb, reaffirming the view that risk assets are poised for a rebound. In the cryptocurrency market, the Meme coin sector has surged with increased on-chain and off-chain trading activity. Traders are heavily speculating and leveraging the latest popular Meme coins, leading to some bubbles in the market.In the past two weeks, the perpetual contract funding rates on exchanges like Deribit and Binance have also risen, indicating that short positions are decreasing or long positions are increasing. This, along with the bubble in the Meme coin market, keeps it vigilant for potential downturns, as such situations often occur when the market is bullish and investors are least guarded. Even in the face of short-term uncertainties and declines, we still plan to continue accumulating, with a bullish mid-term outlook.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, FalconX research director David Lawant stated that the correlation between cryptocurrency prices and broader risk asset indices has been rising and may remain high for some time. The current lower interest rate cycle combined with a soft landing is the baseline for most investors and will create a new macro environment for cryptocurrencies. Favorable election outcomes and a liquidity environment more conducive to risk assets may trigger the next cryptocurrency bull market.

ChainCatcher news, BlackRock has released a report titled "Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier," which states that most of the risks and potential return drivers faced by Bitcoin differ from those of traditional "risk" assets, making it unsuitable for most traditional financial frameworks— including the "risk-on" and "risk-off" frameworks adopted by some macro commentators.Bitcoin's nature as a scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset leads some investors to view it as a safe haven during times of fear and certain geopolitical disruptive events. The long-term adoption trajectory of Bitcoin is driven by strong concerns over global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and U.S. political stability. This contrasts with the typical relationship attributed to traditional "risk assets" and such forces.Bitcoin's long-term performance shows low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it attractive for diversification. Although in the short term, Bitcoin's price movements occasionally align with traditional risk assets, these are considered temporary phenomena. The report concludes by reiterating that Bitcoin's unique characteristics may make it a hedge against risks that traditional assets cannot address, especially in times of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, 10x Research believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on September 18, the originally bullish liquidity easing cycle may have adverse effects on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.It is reported that a 50 basis point adjustment typically indicates an urgency to control inflation and triggers a risk-averse sentiment in financial markets. A 50 basis point rate cut next week may signal heightened concerns about the economy or a feeling of lagging in addressing the impending economic slowdown, leading investors to reduce their exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks.Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated: "While a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve may indicate greater market concerns, the Fed's primary focus will be on mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, economist Steve Hanke from Johns Hopkins University stated that the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next Wednesday, which could lead to a "sell-the-news" event for risk assets.Steve Hanke said, "The market has anticipated a 25 basis point cut, which means the actual cut could be disappointing, leading to a 'sell-the-news' reaction. In contrast, a 50 basis point cut has not been factored in. If it does happen, it could drive the market up."

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, economist Steve Hanke from Johns Hopkins University stated that the market has priced in a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next Wednesday, which could lead to a "sell-the-news" event for risk assets.Steve Hanke said, "The market has anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut, which means the actual cut could be disappointing, leading to a 'sell-the-news' reaction. In contrast, a 50 basis point cut has not been factored in. If it does happen, it could drive the market up."

ChainCatcher news, FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated that the weakness in Bitcoin may signal warnings for traditional risk assets. He said: "The weakness in cryptocurrencies may reflect a very limited risk appetite, and the rest of the market may soon follow the cryptocurrency's lead. Bitcoin has fallen for the 9th consecutive day in the past 11 days as it attempts to consolidate above the 200-day moving average, triggering strong sell-offs. This pattern has persisted until Thursday morning, as prices continue to test the lows of the past four months, and Bitcoin may struggle to gain lasting strength from the recent weakness of the dollar index."

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that the downward revision of the U.S. non-farm payrolls overnight highlighted the weakness in the labor market, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, triggering a wave of selling.However, the minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that some policymakers were willing to cut rates, which released a more dovish stance aimed at balancing inflation and employment goals, thereby alleviating these concerns. This dovish tone boosted risk assets, pushing Bitcoin prices above $61,800, with strong buying on Coinbase continuing until 4 AM Singapore time. Aggressive buy orders on Coinbase (indicating domestic demand in the U.S.) are a good signal for the short-term trend.Now, the market's focus shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech tomorrow in Jackson Hole, with expectations of gaining more signals regarding interest rate cuts. Given that the market is generally betting on rate cuts, unexpected economic data could have a significant impact on the market.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research stated in its latest analysis that Bitcoin has risen by 4% since yesterday, consistent with its bullish outlook. Bitcoin made a decisive upward move, breaking through the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential for further upside.With the support of an increase of $1 billion in open interest, Bitcoin's funding rate has returned to a premium. Considering these dynamics, a straightforward strategy is to go long on Bitcoin while shorting Ethereum, as Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, with its share of open positions increasingly deviating in favor of Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes were as expected, with a strong focus on the employment aspect of its dual mandate.According to current economic data forecasts, the inflation target seems within reach. "The vast majority" of FOMC members support a rate cut in September, with several members even considering a rate cut in July as a viable option. This makes a rate cut in September almost inevitable. Powell's upcoming speech on Friday is expected to reinforce this dovish outlook, potentially boosting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, as monetary policy provides a favorable backdrop. The Federal Reserve's focus in decision-making is shifting towards employment, making inflation data less significant, especially with CPI trending towards 2.5% in the coming months. Multiple rate cuts may be needed to sustain the current economic expansion.

ChainCatcher message, Glassnode co-founder Negentropic stated on X: "After the release of yesterday's CPI and retail sales data, the Dollar Index (DXY) was severely impacted. According to the EW-count, this looks like the 'right shoulder' of a major head and shoulders pattern. More downside potential will fuel the rebound of risk assets BTC and SP500 until the end of summer."

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research stated on social platforms that risk assets represented by stocks and cryptocurrencies are on the verge of a significant price adjustment. The main trigger is unexpected and persistent inflation. The bond market currently expects fewer than three rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 4.50%, and the market may have reached a critical threshold for risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, October's US CPI did not meet market expectations. Specifically, the CPI month-on-month is 0%, below the market expectation of 0.1%; the core CPI month-on-month is 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3%; the CPI year-on-year rose by 3.2%, below the market expectation of 3.3%; the core CPI year-on-year is 4.0%, below the market expectation of 4.1%.With the CPI data declining and the US economy beginning to show signs of weakness, the market expects a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, anticipating an early end to the tightening of monetary policy. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped to 0.2%. By December next year, the market expects the federal funds rate to fall to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The market anticipates that by December next year, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 100 basis points.The macro monetary policy environment of rate cuts means that more funds will be available in the market in the future, which is a significant boon for risk assets. It is expected that the supply of stablecoins in the cryptocurrency market will surpass previous highs.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes stated on social media, "Since the beginning of November, as the reverse repurchase (RRP) balance held by the New York Fed has decreased while the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has remained unchanged, nearly $200 billion in liquidity has been injected (into the market). Risk assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will continue to soar."