Bitcoin rebound

Standard Chartered Bank's Head of Digital Asset Research: Bitcoin's rebound will depend on two major catalysts, namely a recovery in risk assets overall or favorable news such as sovereign purchases

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick stated that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is primarily influenced by the pressure from broader risk assets, rather than issues within the cryptocurrency itself. "From a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin's performance is highly correlated with the 'seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin' portfolio," Kendrick noted in an email on Tuesday, "Tesla performed the worst, while Meta and Apple performed the best, with the rest being similar to Bitcoin."Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's rebound will depend on two main catalysts: a recovery in risk assets overall or Bitcoin-specific positive news (such as sovereign purchases). He pointed out that clearer tariff policies or a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve would help boost the market, "the probability of a rate cut in the May meeting rising from the current 50% to 75% could trigger a rebound." Although Bitcoin may quickly test the $69,000 support level if it falls below $76,500 in the short term, he still maintains a target forecast of $200,000 by the end of 2025.Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be a significant test for Bitcoin. Rohit Jain, Managing Director of CoinDCX Ventures, stated that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rates as expected, it could lead to Bitcoin testing the $70,000 support level.

CryptoQuant: The activity of retail investors in Bitcoin rebounded in October

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, based on data from CryptoQuant, retail investor activity has slowed down from June to late September, but has started to pick up since October. The agency noted in a report released on Tuesday: "In the past 30 days, retail demand has increased by about 13%, showing a trend similar to when we approached the previous historical peak in March."The report pointed out that the increase in retail demand for Bitcoin is occurring alongside a rise in institutional interest. While retail investors are returning to the market, institutional investors have been steadily increasing their investments in Bitcoin this year. This contrasts sharply with the first quarter of 2024, when market demand was primarily driven by large investors. The current dynamics of retail and institutional investor demand are similar to previous Bitcoin market cycles, and the recent increase in retail activity may signal a similar pattern of renewed optimism.To gauge retail investor demand, CryptoQuant focused on several key indicators. One of them is tracking the total amount of Bitcoin held in wallets that hold less than one Bitcoin. This total has increased from 1.734 million Bitcoins in mid-March to the current 1.752 million Bitcoins, an increase of 18,000. Another indicator is the volume of on-chain transactions below $10,000, which reflects the activity of small investors and provides a reference for the market sentiment of non-institutional investors.

JPMorgan: This round of Bitcoin rebound is mainly attributed to institutional investors

According to ChainCatcher, The Block reported that on Monday, the cryptocurrency market experienced its most severe pullback since the FTX crisis, with Bitcoin's price dropping over 15% at one point before rebounding. JPMorgan analysts stated that this rebound was mainly due to institutional investors, who, despite the overall market turbulence, had limited or no de-risking in Bitcoin futures. In a report on Wednesday, JPMorgan's analysts noted that their futures positioning indicator suggests a positive outlook for these investors. They indicated that Bitcoin futures prices are at a higher premium compared to spot prices, indicating strong confidence among futures investors.Analysts believe there are many reasons for institutional investors to remain optimistic. Last week, Morgan Stanley allowed its wealth advisors to recommend spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to certain clients. Additionally, analysts stated that the large-scale liquidations from the bankruptcies of Mt.Gox and Genesis may have already passed, and cash payments from the FTX bankruptcy later this year could stimulate demand in the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, they added that both major political parties in the U.S. have expressed support for favorable cryptocurrency regulations. However, analysts pointed out that these positive catalysts have largely been priced into the market.Analysts also noted that the recent significant drop in Bitcoin was not caused by cryptocurrency-specific issues but rather by a pullback in traditional risk assets like stocks. While institutional investors helped support Bitcoin's rebound, retail investors also contributed to Bitcoin's decline. Additionally, momentum traders, such as commodity trading advisors, played a role by exiting long positions and establishing short positions. Overall, despite recent adjustments, JPMorgan analysts remain cautious about the cryptocurrency market. Given that the aforementioned positive catalysts have largely been priced in, and the risk reduction in the CME Bitcoin futures space is limited, coupled with the continued weakness in the stock market, analysts recommend maintaining a cautious outlook.
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