ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha stated in its latest report that following last week's relatively resilient performance of Bitcoin, with a weekly decline of only 0.65%, nearly flat, and far better than traditional risk assets, it is clear that this is merely a delayed downward reaction.Despite the BTC/S&P 500 index ratio soaring to nearly 5% below historical highs, indicating strong relative strength, the market has now seen a sell-off. We believe that stocks are becoming deeply oversold, and a short-term rebound may narrow this gap in the medium term. However, trends in short-term financing and open interest also suggest that Bitcoin is about to experience volatility.Nevertheless, structurally, a solid foundation that performed well in the late second quarter seems to be forming. As macro volatility cools, ETF inflows recover, and sovereign narratives resurface, Bitcoin may further decouple from stocks and reclaim its leadership position in global risk assets.Additionally, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid uncertain inflation dynamics, the overall situation suggests that trade policy, rather than monetary policy, may pose a greater risk to economic momentum in the coming quarters.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, a tariff storm is sweeping the globe, and market panic is spreading, intensifying the sell-off of risk assets. Following a nearly 10% drop last week, U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower on Monday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures at one point falling over 5%. As of the time of writing, the declines have narrowed to 2.39% and 3.17%, respectively, while Dow futures fell 2.42%. The Asia-Pacific stock markets also opened with significant losses, with the Nikkei index plummeting 8.1%, the South Korean KOSPI index dropping 5.14%, and all three major A-share indices falling over 4%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index opened down 9.28%.The cryptocurrency market also experienced a significant downturn, closely mirroring the performance of U.S. stocks. Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly around $83,000 over the weekend, but began to break through key support levels early Monday morning, hitting a low of $77,100, marking a nearly one-month low. Other major cryptocurrencies also saw sharp declines, with Ethereum dropping 13.5% to $1,580. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization shrank from $2.4 trillion to $2.16 trillion, a decrease of 10%. The total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours was $886 million. The market is in a state of extreme panic.The commodities market also did not escape unscathed. Spot gold fell below the psychological level of $3,000, hitting a low of $2,971. U.S. oil dropped to $59.80 per barrel, down 12% from last week's high, marking a new low since April 2021.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC, Citigroup analyst Kate Moore stated that investors should now steer clear of risk assets following Trump's announcement of tariff policies.

ChainCatcher news, Trump announced a comprehensive tariff rate of 10%, lower than market expectations, leading to a broad rally in risk assets. The Nasdaq futures rose more than 2% after hours in the US stock market, the DXY dollar index briefly fell by 50 points, and Bitcoin surged over $1500 in a short time. Spot gold initially fell and then rose. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Matt Weller, Global Market Research Director at StoneX, emphasized in a recent report that the market's aversion to uncertainty is an old Wall Street adage. The ambiguity of tariff statements has undoubtedly severely impacted risk appetite. Once the dust settles, risk assets and the dollar may experience a brief rebound. However, he warned that if Trump continues to escalate tariffs after April 2, any rebound in risk assets will be short-lived, unless traders are convinced that these disruptive economic policies have been completely ended.Meanwhile, Jed Ellerbroek, Portfolio Manager at Argent Capital, observed that this uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is driving funds into low-volatility and value stocks, while the weak performance of tech giants in recent weeks confirms the market's defensive mindset. He believes that improving visibility on tariff policies is a necessary prerequisite to reversing this risk-averse sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital published an analysis stating that one of the fastest declines in the U.S. stock market may have passed, with JPMorgan and an increasing number of strategists telling their clients that improved market sentiment and historically favorable seasonal factors are working together.Boosted by Trump's comments on tariff exemptions, BTC briefly broke through $88,000, leading to a short-term market rebound. Although the second quarter is typically one of the strongest periods for risk assets, the options market remains cautious, with bullish skew expected to become evident only in June. Investors are focused on this Friday's quarterly options expiration and the upcoming PCE inflation data, which may become the next key catalyst.

ChainCatcher news, after the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in tapering, Bitcoin rebounded from below $83,000 and briefly broke through $88,000. Shubh Varma, CEO of the crypto research platform Hyblock Capital, pointed out that the slowdown in tapering may enhance liquidity, benefiting cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. However, concerns over the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy have been weighing on the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Some analysts believe that technically, BTC may need to dip to $70,000 before it can restart its upward trend. Additionally, the Federal Reserve observation tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the federal funds futures prices reflect an 89.1% probability of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, despite the volatility in the crypto market, BlackRock's head of digital assets Robert Mitchnick emphasized in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box that Bitcoin is not a high-risk asset, but rather a "global, scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized" token.Mitchnick pointed out that some research and commentary within the industry depict Bitcoin as a risk asset, leading to self-fulfilling volatility in the market. He believes that the impact of a U.S. economic recession on Bitcoin is overstated and could even serve as a catalyst for it. Furthermore, he stated that despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin has still risen about 15% since last November, and called 2024 a "historic year," asserting that Bitcoin's long-term trend makes it "digital gold."

ChainCatcher news, Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that the market is focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, believing it could provide support for the market. Some believe that if the end of the balance sheet reduction plan (i.e., quantitative tightening) is announced, it could have a positive impact on the market.The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Therefore, the focus will be on how policymakers plan to advance the quantitative tightening program, as there are concerns that this could affect the system's liquidity, while the Treasury is working to address the ongoing debt ceiling issue. Additionally, the market will be watching the economic forecast summary.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick stated that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is primarily influenced by the pressure from broader risk assets, rather than issues within the cryptocurrency itself. "From a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin's performance is highly correlated with the 'seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin' portfolio," Kendrick noted in an email on Tuesday, "Tesla performed the worst, while Meta and Apple performed the best, with the rest being similar to Bitcoin."Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's rebound will depend on two main catalysts: a recovery in risk assets overall or Bitcoin-specific positive news (such as sovereign purchases). He pointed out that clearer tariff policies or a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve would help boost the market, "the probability of a rate cut in the May meeting rising from the current 50% to 75% could trigger a rebound." Although Bitcoin may quickly test the $69,000 support level if it falls below $76,500 in the short term, he still maintains a target forecast of $200,000 by the end of 2025.Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be a significant test for Bitcoin. Rohit Jain, Managing Director of CoinDCX Ventures, stated that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rates as expected, it could lead to Bitcoin testing the $70,000 support level.

ChainCatcher news, economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have raised the risk of an economic recession this year from 30% in early 2025 to 40%.The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts wrote, "Due to extreme policies in the U.S., we believe the risk of the U.S. falling into recession this year is significant."Previous news, Morgan Stanley economists downgraded their economic growth expectations last week and raised their inflation expectations. The bank predicts that the GDP growth rate will be only 1.5% in 2025 and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, U.S. job growth in February fell short of expectations, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a dovish stance, as the need for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy could boost global stock markets and cryptocurrencies.However, Nexo analysts believe that the ongoing inflation risks related to tariffs and supply chain disruptions remain factors that could keep the Federal Reserve cautious.Additionally, Wincent senior executive Paul Howard stated that Friday's employment report, which was below expectations, supports the view that interest rate cuts may be necessary to stimulate the economy. He also noted that reducing deficit costs could be a top priority for the U.S. government, which would have a favorable impact on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Cointelegraph, a survey by Bitpanda shows that women are increasingly interested in cryptocurrency investments. Despite a lack of industry knowledge, most prefer long-term strategies and low-risk assets like Bitcoin.The survey indicates that 50% of female cryptocurrency investors prioritize long-term financial growth, with 49% holding digital assets for up to five years and 39% planning to hold for more than five years. Among the 1,400 investors surveyed, over 54% made their first investment in Bitcoin or Ethereum.In the past year, female investors have seen an average growth of 8.1%, but the lack of education remains a major challenge for women adopting mainstream cryptocurrencies. Over 81% of respondents admitted to lacking investment experience, with 24% of female investors citing a lack of investment knowledge as their biggest challenge, while 41% pointed to funding limitations.

ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten stated that against the backdrop of increased volatility in the bond market, the European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates from 4.5% to 2.65% on Thursday, continuing its easing policy. As the anticipated easing policy approaches, the market is re-pricing the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least three times in 2025.The upcoming easing policy from the European Central Bank will only intensify the trend of global liquidity easing, providing a bullish signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.Previous news, the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, with two more cuts anticipated within the year.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the brief market rebound following Trump's announcement of a cryptocurrency reserve plan on Truth Social on Sunday quickly faded, with risk assets generally pulling back and erasing most of Sunday’s gains. Trump's renewed push for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China intensified the sell-off, reinforcing investors' concerns about escalating trade tensions.The analysis indicates that the unexpected inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA tokens in the reserve plan has sparked divisions within the crypto community, with initial optimism about the project's advantages shifting to a more in-depth examination. Current doubts mainly focus on potential contradictions between the plan and DOGE cost-cutting measures, as well as the lack of transparency regarding the sources of reserve funds.QCP Capital states that this market decline may exacerbate the pressure Trump faces, especially after receiving strong support and donations from the crypto community during his campaign. Even the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspending and withdrawing enforcement cases against crypto companies has failed to stop the market sell-off, highlighting a broader risk-averse sentiment.The report notes that after a month of low cross-asset volatility, market anxiety has resurfaced due to the prospect of tariff confrontations potentially suppressing global growth. This shift is reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping 50 basis points over the past two weeks, the VIX surpassing 22, and Bitcoin's short-term volatility sharply rising by 8 points since the weekend, with a significant skew towards bearish options.Previous news, Trump's launch of a cryptocurrency strategic reserve may be aimed at boosting approval ratings, with the market focusing on Friday's White House cryptocurrency summit.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Trump announced a "25% or higher" tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips, which companies can avoid by relocating to the U.S. He also emphasized that U.S. auto exports are treated unfairly and announced tariffs on cars starting April 2. The U.S.-China AI competition has once again become a focal point, with DeepSeek seeking external financing, attracting attention from institutional investors like Alibaba, which may accelerate the competitive threat to U.S. AI giants.In the cryptocurrency sector, altcoins have gained attention since Trump's administration, with multiple altcoin ETF applications submitted to the SEC. Brazil has approved the world's first spot XRP ETF, which could propel the U.S. to become a global cryptocurrency hub.In the options market, there is strong demand for high Delta bullish Bitcoin options from February to April, with 25 Delta implied volatility leaning bullish, suggesting the market may be preparing for a second wave of a bull market. As inflation concerns ease, the S&P 500 hits new highs, and the dollar index retreats to 107, the macro environment increasingly supports risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, institutional analysis indicates that the CPI in the U.S. rose more than expected in January, intensifying concerns about the persistent inflationary pressures and reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on easing monetary policy.Policymakers have repeatedly emphasized that there needs to be sustained evidence showing inflation returning to the 2% target level before considering interest rate cuts. The latest data shows that anti-inflation progress remains uneven, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift direction in the short term. With inflation rates higher than expected, the near-term outlook for risk assets remains uncertain.As traders adjust their expectations for interest rate cuts, the stock market faces new downward pressure. Bond yields may continue to rise as the market reflects a prolonged period of tight monetary policy. Unless the upcoming inflation report shows a significant cooling, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates soon, which will continue to increase volatility in the stock and fixed income markets.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin traders are closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released later on Wednesday. Some traders expect that once there are signs of interest rate cuts, the dollar will decline------which could boost risk assets and provide an entry point for cryptocurrency investors looking to bet on higher prices.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex released a report indicating that the price of Bitcoin has stagnated in the range of $91,000 to $102,000, entering a consolidation phase that has lasted for over 75 days. However, this prolonged range-bound movement reflects the increasing maturity of Bitcoin as an asset, with its annualized real volatility having dropped to historical lows.Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, particularly when Trump announced tariffs against Mexico and Canada, leading to a significant price drop. Recent trends suggest that BTC is increasingly being viewed as a risk asset rather than merely a store of value. Its correlation with the S&P 500 remains strong, while its correlation with gold has weakened.Bitfinex expects the range-bound movement of Bitcoin to continue in the near term, potentially facing downward pressure if macroeconomic conditions worsen. However, despite gold's continued rise and changing institutional sentiment towards Bitcoin, the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value remains intact in the long run.

ChainCatcher news, according to DLNews, Noelle Acheson, author of the "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter, stated that if the tariff panic subsides quickly, it would be a good thing for risk assets including Bitcoin. However, if not, safe-haven assets like Bitcoin could benefit from investors seeking to hedge against domestic currency depreciation and prepare for the development of the new economy.Even so, Bitcoin's success largely depends on the strength of the dollar. She noted, "A decline in the dollar against other currencies would benefit global liquidity and could reignite risk appetite, benefiting Bitcoin and stocks."