ChainCatcher news, analyst Paul Ashworth said in a report that considering today's CPI report, the core PCE inflation indicator for September may accelerate from 0.1% in August to 0.2%, but the annualized rate "will only be slightly above the Fed's 2% target." PCE data will not be released until the end of the month, and in addition, tomorrow's PPI report will help adjust expectations. Ashworth stated that if his prediction is correct, the pace of inflation (decline) "will support the Fed's more cautious rate cut of 25 basis points early next month." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, data released on Friday showed that the U.S. core PCE in August was below market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The cooling inflation has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November rising from 49.3% to 54.1%.According to 4E observations, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59% last week, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.62%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.95%, marking the third consecutive week of gains for all three major indices. Bitcoin saw a cumulative increase of nearly 4% last week, marking three weeks of gains and heading towards the best September in history. Under the expectation of continued rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index fell for four consecutive weeks, erasing all gains since mid-July. Spot gold hit a new historical high last week, rising 1.38%, with an increase of nearly 30% this year, surpassing the S&P 500 index's 20% gain, driven by rate cuts from major central banks like the U.S. and China, along with ongoing tensions in the Middle East.With inflation falling in Europe and the U.S., and the pace of global central bank rate cuts accelerating, this will provide strong momentum for the stock and cryptocurrency markets. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. U.S. non-farm payroll data for September will be released this Friday; if it performs strongly, it will further boost expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in November. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "the Federal Reserve's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the Federal Reserve's favored inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), showed an increase of 2.2% over the 12 months ending in August, not far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.A year ago and two years ago, this indicator was 3.4% and 6.6%, respectively. The core PCE (excluding the more volatile food and energy items) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August. A year ago, the 12-month core inflation rate was 3.8%, and two years ago it was 5.4%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 45.9%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 54.1% (before the PCE data release, these were 50.1% and 49.9% respectively). The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 24.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.2%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 25.8% (before the PCE data release, these were 26.0%, 50.0%, and 24.0% respectively).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. core PCE price index for August increased by 0.1% month-on-month (the lowest since May), expected 0.20%, previous value 0.20%.The U.S. core PCE price index for August increased by 2.7% year-on-year (the highest since April), expected 2.70%, previous value 2.60%.The U.S. PCE price index for August increased by 0.1% month-on-month, expected 0.10%, previous value 0.20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, before the release of PCE data, the CME "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 50.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 49.9%.By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 26.0%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 24.0%.

ChainCatcher news, data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy once again highlighted unexpected resilience, alleviating market concerns about the economy. At the same time, boosted by China's unexpected policy package, global financial markets surged.According to 4E observation, the three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the S&P 500 index closing up 0.40%, setting a new historical high; the Dow Jones rose 0.62%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.60%. Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 10.9%. Non-U.S. currencies rose broadly, while the yen resumed its downward trend; cryptocurrencies rose across the board, with Bitcoin up 2.56%, breaking through $65,000, and Ethereum up 0.96%.Gold, silver, and copper all soared, as major central banks like the U.S. and China cut interest rates, coupled with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold's intraday gains expanded to 1%, once again setting a new historical high, with nearly a 30% increase this year; under China's stimulus policies, silver, a key industrial material, rose over 2.5%, reaching a 12-year high, and has increased 37% year-to-date.With global central banks cutting interest rates in succession and China's "policy package" igniting global optimism, combined with resilient U.S. economic data, investors' risk appetite has risen. 4E is a financial trading platform supporting assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, and foreign exchange. This Friday evening, the U.S. core PCE price index will be released, providing further key clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, the United States will release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data today at 20:30 Beijing time.Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target by 50 basis points, indicating greater confidence in inflation returning to the 2% target level. There is widespread expectation that the PCE data will provide additional support for this stance. Economists unanimously believe that the month-on-month growth rate of core PCE in August will be close to 0.2%, consistent with the price increases in June and July.

ChainCatcher news, the CICC major asset inflation sub-item prediction model shows that as long as no black swan events occur, the U.S. CPI inflation is likely to remain in the range of 2.5%-3% this year, and PCE will remain in the range of 2%-2.5%. The risk of secondary inflation in the second half of the year is low, alleviating concerns for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. (Jin10)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 69.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by November is 51.2%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 40.8%, and the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 8.1%.

ChainCatcher message, analysts have indicated that after the latest economic data strengthened expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. U.S. Treasury yields remained almost unchanged, and the market is poised for its longest consecutive rise since 2021. The PCE index, favored by the Federal Reserve as a measure of potential U.S. inflation, rose moderately in July, while household spending remained robust.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that the time has come for the Federal Reserve to lower its key policy interest rate. He affirmed expectations that Fed officials will begin to reduce borrowing costs next month and clearly indicated his intention to prevent further cooling of the labor market. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. core PCE price index for July increased by 0.2%, expected 0.20%, previous value 0.20%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, eToro analyst Bret Kenwell stated that the U.S. June PCE report largely met economists' expectations, with the core PCE index year-on-year increase slightly above expectations. Nevertheless, there were no signs in the report indicating that inflation would unexpectedly accelerate. Coupled with the earlier-than-expected CPI report this month and the recent trend of lower inflation data, this should give the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates later this quarter.In next week's Federal Reserve meeting, all eyes will be on Powell, as people hope and expect him to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has been very transparent, announcing its actions well in advance, which has increased certainty, and the market likes certainty.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. core PCE price index for June is 2.6% year-on-year, expected 2.5%, previous value 2.6%.

ChainCatcher news, consulting firm BRN digital asset analyst Valentin Fournier stated that the upcoming PCE data could be the final nail in the coffin for high interest rates and prompt the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts; additionally, if rumors about the establishment of a BTC strategic reserve prove true, Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference could trigger a stronger rebound, and these factors may drive Bitcoin prices to new highs.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the U.S. May PCE data, traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. May core PCE price index year-on-year recorded 2.6%, the smallest increase since March 2021. The U.S. May core PCE price index month-on-month recorded 0.1%, the smallest increase since November 2023.

ChainCatcher message, XT Research Institute reminds that at 20:30 tonight, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the U.S. May Core PCE Price Index year-on-year. The market generally expects that the U.S. Core PCE data will affect the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. Treasury yields, and interest rate cut expectations, and may also impact the risk market and cryptocurrency market.The previous value of this data was 2.8%, and the forecast value is 2.6%. If the published value is lower than the expected value, it will be bearish for the dollar and bullish for non-U.S. currencies. It will be bearish for Treasury yields, bullish for interest rate cut expectations, and bearish for interest rate hike expectations. It will be bullish for the risk market and bullish for the cryptocurrency market.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed's mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that today's PCE results have been widely anticipated for two weeks and are expected not to change the Fed's recent "wait-and-see" attitude.