ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated: "The minutes from yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting revealed a more hawkish stance, raising doubts about the Fed's victories in combating inflation. Combined with last Friday's strong employment data, the market has raised the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in November from 67.9% last week to 83.7%.Tonight's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and tomorrow's Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be key risk events for this week. Along with the earnings reports from major banks (such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo), this data is crucial for assessing the strength of the U.S. economy in the context of cooling inflation.Despite the rise in U.S. stock market indices last night, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high, the cryptocurrency market did not show the same optimism, with selling pressure re-emerging, possibly influenced by the Silk Road Bitcoin sell-off and PlusToken Ethereum sell-off news. As long as the key support level of 60,000 remains intact, we still hold an optimistic view on 'Uptober' (October rally). Given the market's expectation of more rate cuts in the future, we prefer to lock in profits at these depressed spot levels and prepare for a year-end rally."

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated that the Chinese stock market continued to decline today, with the China A50 index dropping another 7%, down 17% from recent highs. The lack of fiscal stimulus has severely impacted investor sentiment. However, the U.S. stock market has not been affected by developments in Asia. Despite uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections and the exclusion of interest rate cuts in 2024 following the non-farm payroll report, the U.S. stock market continues to rise to new highs. The bond market currently expects two rate cuts in 2024, down from three just a week ago.Despite the escalating turmoil in the Middle East and domestic challenges related to the U.S. elections, the U.S. stock market continues to steadily climb, reaffirming the view that risk assets are poised for a rebound. In the cryptocurrency market, the Meme coin sector has surged with increased on-chain and off-chain trading activity. Traders are heavily speculating and leveraging the latest popular Meme coins, leading to some bubbles in the market.In the past two weeks, the perpetual contract funding rates on exchanges like Deribit and Binance have also risen, indicating that short positions are decreasing or long positions are increasing. This, along with the bubble in the Meme coin market, keeps it vigilant for potential downturns, as such situations often occur when the market is bullish and investors are least guarded. Even in the face of short-term uncertainties and declines, we still plan to continue accumulating, with a bullish mid-term outlook.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the Chinese stock market has shown weak rebound after the long holiday, and the government report failed to introduce new economic stimulus measures. The MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index recorded its largest decline in a month. The US stock market also fell overnight, mainly affected by large tech stocks and geopolitical tensions, with the VIX index rising to 22 points.The cryptocurrency market's volatility remains stable, with recent implied volatility at 43%, which is 3 percentage points lower than the 7-day historical actual volatility. Previously, Bloomberg reported that since the end of September, Chinese investors may have sold USDT to fund stock purchases, while Bitcoin prices remained stable. As the rebound in the Chinese stock market weakens, it is expected that funds may be reallocated to the cryptocurrency market, reflecting the increasing maturity of the crypto industry as another risk asset.QCP believes that due to the upcoming earnings season and CPI data release, the stock market may face downward risks in the short term, which could challenge its high valuation. Geopolitical tensions further increase market uncertainty. QCP remains mid-term optimistic, expecting election-related news to continue to drive the cryptocurrency market.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that despite a turbulent start to the month, Bitcoin's upward trend in October seems to be back on track. Currently, the Bitcoin price is comparable to last Monday's level. QCP notes that the "Uptober" narrative, along with strong non-farm payroll data, has helped Bitcoin find strong support around the $60,000 mark. The upcoming HBO Bitcoin documentary is also bringing more mainstream attention to the cryptocurrency, and meme tokens related to Len Sassaman are starting to gain traction.Despite a poor start last week, options flow still points to a bullish fourth quarter, with investors continuing to buy the $75,000/$95,000 call spread expiring in December. Considering the potential for future interest rate cuts and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market, QCP remains optimistic about October's strong performance. This Thursday's U.S. CPI data will be the market focus. Recently, U.S. wage and employment data has been strong, and the market will closely watch for any signs of rising inflation. The Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted from 50 basis points to 25 basis points within a week, and this week's data may determine whether further adjustments to rate cut expectations will be made.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital stated in an official post that this week there was a conflict between Iran and Israel, and the market expects Israel's retaliation to be more severe, targeting key infrastructures such as Iran's nuclear facilities or oil facilities. Additionally, the non-farm data reflects a strong labor market, coupled with the possibility of further interest rate cuts later this year, which has boosted risk assets, allowing BTC to recover to $62,000.As we enter the fourth quarter, options market activity continues to grow, with increasing demand for December call options, highlighting the market's bullish outlook for the end of the year. Although QCP Capital still believes that macro data supports the "bullish October" (Uptober) view, geopolitical risks remain the biggest hidden danger before the U.S. elections. QCP Capital is more inclined to lock in yields at current levels, securing profits and preparing for a year-end rally.

ChainCatcher news, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet officially announced on social media that it has reached a Bitcoin options trading agreement with Singapore-based digital asset trading company QCP Capital, involving the sale of Bitcoin put options. In the transaction, Metaplanet sold 233 Bitcoin put options with a strike price of $62,000 expiring on December 27, earning a premium income of 23.97 BTC.Metaplanet stated that this strategy not only enhances the company's Bitcoin reserves but also strengthens the company's balance sheet, aligning with its ongoing financial strategy to increase long-term Bitcoin exposure, improve the company's financial condition, and support the company in achieving its profitability goals. The margin funds are planned to be used for purchasing Bitcoin. Selling put options, referred to as "targeted purchases," is another method to acquire Bitcoin. There are no changes to the planned use of funds.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital released the latest market analysis report stating that the S&P 500 index rose 5.1% this quarter, marking the best year-to-date performance since 1997.Global risk appetite is strong as we enter "Uptober," with the China CSI 300 index rising 9% today, the largest increase following the introduction of real estate support policies in years. Goldman Sachs' main brokerage division shows that current bets on tech stocks rising are three times those on them falling.As the third-quarter earnings season kicks off in mid-October, this rally driven by the stock market may face challenges, as traders reassess the current high valuations. We expect Bitcoin may benefit during stock market pullbacks, as its characteristics as a risk asset align with global monetary easing.

ChainCatcher message, according to The Data Nerd monitoring, QCP Capital transferred 5 million USDC to Galaxy Digital in the last 4 hours, and a few minutes ago, Galaxy Digital transferred 2000 ETH back to QCP Capital.In addition, Galaxy Digital also deposited 25 million USDC to Binance and Coinbase yesterday.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital has released its latest market analysis report. The report indicates that Bitcoin is currently oscillating in the range of $62,000 to $64,000, while Ethereum's trading price is close to the low of $2,600. Micron Technology (MU) shares surged 16% due to an upward revision of its fourth-quarter revenue expectations, and the market anticipates that chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA) may follow suit, which could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to break through $64,000.Today's key macro events include U.S. GDP data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The market will closely monitor Powell's speech for any changes in policy stance following last week's FOMC press conference. U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris has reiterated her support for cryptocurrencies, promising to position the U.S. as a leading force in "AI, quantum computing, and blockchain."QCP Capital believes that as global central banks begin to ease monetary policy, the expected increase in liquidity may drive cryptocurrency prices higher. The company suggests that investors consider going long on long-term options structures with unlimited upside potential to capture potential parabolic price increases.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest report indicates that the current macro environment is becoming increasingly favorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The People's Bank of China has introduced a series of policies to stimulate the real estate and stock markets, including a 500 billion yuan swap tool aimed at non-bank financial institutions, and these measures have already shown initial results. QCP Capital expects China to further relax policies, coupled with the possibility of the Federal Reserve joining the global rate-cutting cycle, as major central banks (excluding the Bank of Japan) are preparing to inject more liquidity into the market. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds continues to widen, currently reaching 21 basis points, indicating that the market holds an optimistic outlook on economic growth.In addition, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has expressed positive views on artificial intelligence and digital assets, triggering a rise in related cryptocurrencies. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved options trading for BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT), demonstrating that digital assets are gaining increasing recognition and demand as an asset class.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official post that after breaking the $61,000 mark last weekend, the cryptocurrency fell following Trump's second assassination attempt. Before the Asian market opened, a lack of liquidity led to the liquidation of nearly $70 million in short positions, exacerbating the decline. Notably, Bitcoin rose 13.8% from $58,000 to $66,000 in the same week of July 13 when Trump first survived an assassination attempt.TOKEN2049 is currently underway, and the FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday (September 18), with uncertainty still surrounding whether to cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. As the Federal Reserve approaches its first rate cut of this round, market tensions are escalating, amplifying the impact of any unexpected macro data. The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut has surged from 30% last Monday to 59%. This is reflected in the increasing volatility, with Bitcoin's implied volatility rising by 8 and Ethereum by 20 last Friday.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital released this week's market analysis, with the debate between Trump and Harris becoming the focus of the week. Harris gained support from Taylor Swift, and Polymarket data shows her chances slightly above 50%; CPI data met expectations (2.5%), but PPI was slightly below expectations (2.4%), with the market maintaining a 50/50 probability for a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut; BTC ETF showed inflows, with Microstrategy increasing its holdings by 18,300 BTC, bringing the total to 244,800 BTC. Interest in ETH in the options market suddenly revived, with over 20k contracts purchased.In terms of trading advice, despite short-term uncertainty and potential pullbacks, QCP still recommends locking in profits before a rate cut and preparing for a bullish scenario.

ChainCatcher news, according to Arkham monitoring, after the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the Polymarket address "paragon" received funds from QCP Capital, purchasing over $600,000 in Trump opposition votes and Kamala support votes respectively. If Kamala wins the election, they will earn over $2.6 million.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest report indicates that the cryptocurrency market has stabilized after last week's volatility, but implied volatility remains high. The market is on alert for significant events happening this week, particularly the debate between Trump and Harris, as well as the release of CPI data. Following last week's sharp decline, the market remains cautious about downside risks, with the risk reversal for Bitcoin and Ethereum still skewed towards bearish options until October. Despite numerous uncertainties and price fluctuations in the short term, QCP maintains a structurally bullish stance.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest report indicates that the cryptocurrency market has stabilized after last week's volatility, but implied volatility remains high. The market seems to be preparing for important events this week, particularly the debate between Trump and Harris (September 11, 9:00 AM Beijing time) and the release of CPI data (September 11, 8:30 PM Beijing time).Given the speed of the price decline last week, the market remains cautious about downside risks, with the risk reversal for BTC and ETH still skewed towards put options until October. Despite short-term noise and price fluctuations, QCP Capital maintains a structurally bullish stance.The market also appears to be taking advantage of this pullback to increase long positions, with the company observing large buyers purchasing call options expiring on March 28, 2025 (strike prices of $85k, $100k, and $120k).QCP Capital finds the rebound from $52.5k encouraging and notes that some institutions seem to believe a bottom has been reached, increasing bullish bets in December and March contracts.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that after the non-farm payroll data was released yesterday, the market's initial reaction was positive, driving risk assets higher. However, as the market began to digest the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, bullish sentiment underwent a sharp reversal. After the non-farm employment data was released, the market expected a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. But as of this morning, the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has fallen to 30%.Even as cryptocurrencies declined, the options market remained relatively calm. There was even a significant amount of put option selling observed throughout the trading session. We noted that as spot prices consolidated over the weekend, front-end volatility is decreasing.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that the U.S. JOLTs job openings data has dropped to the lowest level since January 2021, while layoffs have risen to the highest point since March 2023. The market reaction is that there is a 50% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September.BTC rose to over $58,500 during U.S. trading hours, and ETH approached $2,500, but during Asian trading hours, the prices fell back to $57,000 and $2,400, respectively. The overnight BTC spot ETF outflow was the lowest in the past 6 trading days (-$37.5 million).This week, front-end volatility remains high, with BTC volatility rising 6% from this week's low. Given yesterday's VMI signal, we expect volatility to remain at elevated levels.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital stated that the Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) for Bitcoin and Ethereum triggered an alert this morning, indicating that the market is entering a period of increased volatility. The directionality of this signal is unknown, meaning it does not indicate the direction of price points but suggests that significant price fluctuations may occur in the short term (the chart below shows the implied volatility of BTC at historical VML signals). Historically, shifting from profit-generating strategies to long convexity (buying options) strategies at this time has helped optimize portfolio returns.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that September is typically a bear market month for cryptocurrencies and other asset classes, but October has historically performed strongly. Data shows that in the past 9 years, Bitcoin has achieved positive returns in October in 8 of those years, with an average increase of 22.9%. This seasonal pattern may explain the recent sustained bullish buying in the options market, with 150 call options expiring in December at a strike price of $80,000 observed again during the Asian morning session. QCP suggests that investors may accumulate Bitcoin during the September pullback and take profits in October or by the end of the year.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that by examining Bitcoin's historical performance in September, it was found that there were declines in 6 out of the past 7 years, with an average drop of 4.5%. If this pattern repeats this year, the Bitcoin price could fall to around $55,000. However, analysts expect that $54,000 will become a strong support level, as this level successfully supported the price in July and helped Bitcoin reach $70,000.The report also mentioned that this week's unemployment claims data (September 5) and non-farm payroll report (September 6) may not have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, as the influence of recent macroeconomic data on cryptocurrencies has weakened.Despite the short-term market slump, QCP observed that the options market still shows mid-term bullish signals. The volatility curve is expected to steepen further, while more bullish options positions are being rolled over to March next year. The call options for Bitcoin expiring on March 28, 2025, with a strike price of $120,000, increased by 200 contracts today, bringing the open interest to 2,100 contracts, indicating that investors remain optimistic about the mid-term outlook.