ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital published an analysis stating that one of the fastest declines in the U.S. stock market may have passed, with JPMorgan and an increasing number of strategists telling their clients that improved market sentiment and historically favorable seasonal factors are working together.Boosted by Trump's comments on tariff exemptions, BTC briefly broke through $88,000, leading to a short-term market rebound. Although the second quarter is typically one of the strongest periods for risk assets, the options market remains cautious, with bullish skew expected to become evident only in June. Investors are focused on this Friday's quarterly options expiration and the upcoming PCE inflation data, which may become the next key catalyst.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that last week, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was 8,775 Bitcoins (approximately $744 million), reversing the previous trend of net outflows for several weeks.Driven by this influx of funds, the cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound over the weekend, with Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively breaking back above $85,000 and $2,000. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index improved from 32% last week to 45% this week, indicating a relief in market risk aversion sentiment.Analysis shows that this rebound is mainly driven by real spot demand rather than leverage, as the open interest in perpetual contracts remains sluggish and funding rates stay stable. However, QCP maintains a cautious attitude towards sustained upward breakthroughs, reminding investors to pay attention to the upcoming tariff escalation on April 2, which may put pressure on risk assets.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that it has been exactly one month since the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high, and the market frenzy that once dominated Wall Street and Main Street, along with the narrative of American exceptionalism, has faded. Market sentiment has clearly shifted, and the pressing question now is: "How much longer will this pain last?"The latest victims of the market downturn include some of the largest macro hedge funds, which were forced to stop losses during this month's plunge. Millennium reported losses of $900 million from just two teams, while Brevan Howard's flagship fund has dropped 5% year-to-date, prompting it to impose stricter risk limits on traders. For these traders, the music has not completely stopped, but it is undoubtedly slowing down.The biggest near-term risk is the upcoming April 2 deadline, when Trump is expected to announce a new round of reciprocal tariffs. This remains the most direct resistance facing risk assets. Tonight's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, QCP Capital will closely monitor any dovish shifts, particularly regarding changes in growth and inflation expectations. Given that the impact of tariffs takes months to ripple through the economy, the Fed is expected to remain in "wait-and-see" mode. While the tariff decision on April 2 has already been hinted at, it remains a key uncertainty.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that although the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this Wednesday is extremely low, any dovish signals from Powell could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's upward momentum. As the U.S. shifts from "fiscal dominance" (government spending driving growth) to deficit reduction pushed by Trump, the burden of policy has shifted back to monetary policy. While QCP does not expect an unexpected rate cut from the Federal Reserve, dovish signals could trigger upward momentum in the market.Macro volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX index retreating to around 20, and Bitcoin's volatility has also decreased, currently oscillating within the $80,000 to $85,000 range. In the absence of new tariff news, geopolitical issues have returned to focus. Gold prices have broken through $3,000, while Bitcoin continues to show a negative correlation.Historically, cryptocurrency prices tend to lag behind changes in global liquidity conditions. With the possible policy shift from the Federal Reserve and a new round of stimulus measures from Europe and China, Bitcoin may welcome a new round of upward trends after this adjustment.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that over the weekend, a Bitcoin whale opened a short position of $400 million, with an average entry price of $84,000 and a liquidation price of about $86,000. This triggered market volatility on Sunday, as some trading groups attempted to force the liquidation of this highly leveraged 40x position, which only required a 2.5% price movement. Nevertheless, the position remains open and has incurred nearly $400,000 in funding fees.The report indicates that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 32% (in the fear range), reflecting a persistent risk-averse sentiment, especially considering the overall negative sentiment in the stock market. This further reinforces Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge tool. For instance, last Friday, the BTC-17MAR25-80k-P options were actively bought 300 times, clearly aimed at hedging against weekend volatility risks.Despite the ongoing market noise, Bitcoin remains stable above $80,000, showing stronger resilience compared to the stock market. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning due to renewed concerns about an economic recession. This stems from comments made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. The market will focus on tonight's U.S. retail sales data to further clarify whether the 0.9% decline in January retail sales is the first signal of a slowdown in consumer spending or merely a pullback following a strong end to the 2024 holiday season.The report suggests that as the cryptocurrency narrative thins, the stock market remains the main focus. Last week's lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data provided temporary relief, but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to pivot to a dovish stance immediately. Given the ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns, the outlook for interest rate cuts remains uncertain. Therefore, QCP Capital expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, as the market seeks any clues about the Fed's next moves, especially amid uncertainties surrounding Trump's policy shifts, market volatility may remain elevated.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market anticipates the White House cryptocurrency summit, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset reserve" ahead of time. Although this move is widely expected to be beneficial for Bitcoin, the market has shown a typical "sell the news" reaction, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $90,000 to $85,000 after the signing.The timing of the signing caught the market off guard, especially for investors who had built positions in anticipation of a more optimistic outcome from the summit. Volatility has significantly decreased, and risk reversals have once again shifted towards bearish options, with previous bullish positions being rapidly closed.The sharp market drop may stem from the realization that there has not been an actual budget allocation for Bitcoin purchases recently. Initially, the reserve will mainly utilize the Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government, primarily from criminal or civil asset seizures. However, this does not rule out the possibility of continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in the future. The Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin, provided that it does not increase the burden on taxpayers.Although this is not the direct positive factor many were hoping for, it still has structurally positive implications for cryptocurrencies. The risk of random sell-offs of Silk Road Bitcoin disrupting the market has been eliminated, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term cryptocurrency strategy has been reaffirmed. As the announcement of the strategic Bitcoin reserve settles, market expectations for tonight's White House cryptocurrency summit have cooled, shifting the focus to tonight's non-farm payroll data.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the brief market rebound following Trump's announcement of a cryptocurrency reserve plan on Truth Social on Sunday quickly faded, with risk assets generally pulling back and erasing most of Sunday’s gains. Trump's renewed push for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China intensified the sell-off, reinforcing investors' concerns about escalating trade tensions.The analysis indicates that the unexpected inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA tokens in the reserve plan has sparked divisions within the crypto community, with initial optimism about the project's advantages shifting to a more in-depth examination. Current doubts mainly focus on potential contradictions between the plan and DOGE cost-cutting measures, as well as the lack of transparency regarding the sources of reserve funds.QCP Capital states that this market decline may exacerbate the pressure Trump faces, especially after receiving strong support and donations from the crypto community during his campaign. Even the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspending and withdrawing enforcement cases against crypto companies has failed to stop the market sell-off, highlighting a broader risk-averse sentiment.The report notes that after a month of low cross-asset volatility, market anxiety has resurfaced due to the prospect of tariff confrontations potentially suppressing global growth. This shift is reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping 50 basis points over the past two weeks, the VIX surpassing 22, and Bitcoin's short-term volatility sharply rising by 8 points since the weekend, with a significant skew towards bearish options.Previous news, Trump's launch of a cryptocurrency strategic reserve may be aimed at boosting approval ratings, with the market focusing on Friday's White House cryptocurrency summit.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that after a turbulent week, the market has returned to the starting point of last Monday. Over the weekend, Trump announced the establishment of the U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve. While some market participants believe this news has already been priced in, others see it as the only catalyst to drive cryptocurrency innovation to new highs later this year. Unexpectedly, Trump used this "lifeline" in advance, pulling the Bitcoin price back above $90,000 during the low liquidity period on Sunday.QCP Capital notes that for a president proud of being a market hero, last week's performance of risk assets was disappointing. The new round of tariff policies and the less-than-expected progress in the Russia-Ukraine talks have shaken investor confidence. Although the timing of the strategic reserve announcement was unexpected, the political considerations are clear—Trump needs a win to prevent a decline in approval ratings, which is a metric he personally values highly.Despite encouraging signs of recovery in risk assets, the market has not fully returned to normal. Bitcoin is still trading near the bottom of its multi-month range, front-end cryptocurrency volatility remains relatively high, and major cryptocurrencies continue to show a bearish skew until the end of March. The VIX fear index is also at a high level, indicating widespread unease in the market regarding overall risk assets, especially after the recent announcement by the U.S. government to raise tariffs.Key events this week include Wednesday's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), Friday's non-farm payroll data, and Friday's White House cryptocurrency summit. The latter will be an important event, expected to reveal key details about the U.S. cryptocurrency reserve and regulatory framework.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Trump announced a "25% or higher" tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips, which companies can avoid by relocating to the U.S. He also emphasized that U.S. auto exports are treated unfairly and announced tariffs on cars starting April 2. The U.S.-China AI competition has once again become a focal point, with DeepSeek seeking external financing, attracting attention from institutional investors like Alibaba, which may accelerate the competitive threat to U.S. AI giants.In the cryptocurrency sector, altcoins have gained attention since Trump's administration, with multiple altcoin ETF applications submitted to the SEC. Brazil has approved the world's first spot XRP ETF, which could propel the U.S. to become a global cryptocurrency hub.In the options market, there is strong demand for high Delta bullish Bitcoin options from February to April, with 25 Delta implied volatility leaning bullish, suggesting the market may be preparing for a second wave of a bull market. As inflation concerns ease, the S&P 500 hits new highs, and the dollar index retreats to 107, the macro environment increasingly supports risk assets.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the Ethereum options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, which may be related to the anticipated Pectra upgrade set to launch in early April.Looking back at history, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, with ETH surging before the upgrade and then retreating; while the initial performance of the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 was pessimistic due to supply concerns, ETH rose 30% after selling pressure did not materialize. The current market may be positioning for the Pectra upgrade, with options volatility leaning bullish after March 28, indicating potential upward expectations.However, the weakness in the altcoin market poses a restraining factor, with the LIBRA collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap nearing historical highs. The continued recovery of altcoins relies on substantial progress in real applications and network development, rather than just speculative funding.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the term structure of the options market has shown a significant distortion around the March expiration date, particularly in Ethereum options. This may reflect the market's positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and expected to go live in early April.Looking back at past upgrades, the September 2022 merge upgrade followed the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—ETH fell back after rising over 100% from the June low post-upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which enabled staking withdrawals, faced pessimism due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized that the selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose by 30% in the following months.As expectations for the upgrade heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with options volatility skewed towards call options after March 28—this could lay the groundwork for the next thematic play in the crypto market following the Trump tariff turmoil.One dampening factor is the general weakness in the altcoin market—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap share nearing historical highs. Beyond market catalysts, altcoins may need to achieve substantial progress in real-world applications and network development to sustain a recovery, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market continues to consolidate, Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to about 60%, nearing a four-year high, while ETH and other altcoins have continued to underperform. The analysis indicates that the recent "runaway" scandal involving Argentina's President Milei and the LIBRA project may impact the development of similar projects and suppress the performance of altcoins and meme coins.The report emphasizes that despite numerous uncertainties in the macro environment, the implied volatility of cryptocurrencies and the VIX remain low, indicating that the options market is waiting for specific policy changes rather than just focusing on positive rhetoric. Currently, most trading is concentrated on recent volatility selling or range trading, rather than betting on significant breakout trends.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated on its official channel that the CPI increase exceeded expectations, and the core CPI also rose, leading to market expectations that the Federal Reserve's first rate cut will be delayed until December, triggering a sell-off. Bitcoin dropped from $96,500 to $94,000, with $163 million in long positions being liquidated, but then rebounded to $98,000, a gain of 4.4%.In the options market, recently expiring call options are actively traded, especially those with strike prices between $97,000 and $100,000. The market is paying attention to Trump's reaction to the CPI and its impact on Federal Reserve policy. Powell is expected to remain cautious and adhere to data-driven rate cut decisions. Overall, the buy-the-dip strategy has performed well amid market volatility, and investors need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and changes in market sentiment.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a daily report stating that despite the recent escalation of international trade tensions, traditional financial markets remain stable and show no signs of panic. Credit yields are at a cyclical low, and the VIX index is stable around 16, indicating that the market is prepared for negative news.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony reinforced a "wait-and-see" attitude, suggesting that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down, but the Dollar Index (DXY) failed to rise. CFTC data shows a large number of long positions in the dollar, and interest rate differentials indicate that the dollar is overvalued, increasing downside risks. Tonight's CPI data could act as a catalyst for a decline in the dollar, pushing up the prices of risk assets.However, Bitcoin has underperformed compared to stocks and gold, with thin liquidity in the cryptocurrency market leading to significant losses for traders due to large-scale liquidations last week. It is recommended that investors holding long positions in cryptocurrencies follow institutional fund flows and purchase downside protection, especially when put options remain relatively cheap.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis shows that traditional financial markets continue to be volatile against the backdrop of developments in U.S. trade policy and a high-risk tariff war. The S&P 500 index struggles to maintain the 6000-point mark, and last week's fluctuations led to a pullback in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin briefly touching $92,000 and Ethereum dropping to $2,100. Although the U.S. has delayed imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the U.S.-China trade war remains the market focus.In terms of cryptocurrency regulation, regulatory agencies have established a dedicated working group to draft stablecoin regulations and assess the feasibility of Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR). QCP Capital believes that while Bitcoin's resilience is shown by its maintenance above $90,000, it is advisable to adopt a defensive investment strategy in light of geopolitical risks and the lack of short-term positive catalysts.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital posted on the official TG channel stating that the crypto market is still experiencing rollercoaster-like volatility. With news that the U.S. will delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada by a month, suggesting possible trade mediation, BTC briefly rebounded to $100,000. However, as China retaliated with new tariffs, the BTC price fell back to $98,000, and this relief was short-lived.Additionally, China has launched an antitrust investigation against Google, indicating that China is prepared to escalate tensions by targeting major U.S. tech companies. Any resulting sanctions or restrictions could pressure earnings and pose significant risks to risk assets.As BTC climbed to $100,000 last night, the market also reacted to Trump's directive for officials to create an executive order for a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. While some see this as a potential new source of demand for Bitcoin, the details remain unclear—especially regarding how it will be funded. Currently, trade uncertainty continues to loom over the outlook, and as of March, the options market is maintaining a balance between put options and call options.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the first round of trade policies from the Trump administration has triggered significant volatility in global markets. The yield curve for government bonds has entered a bear flattening phase—2-year yields are rising while 10-year yields are falling, indicating market concerns about short-term inflation and the long-term risks of the trade war on global economic growth.The gold price spread between New York and London has widened, reflecting not only the closure of popular EFP arbitrage trades but also suggesting that the transfer of gold between different vaults may face logistical challenges, reminding the market of the uncertainty that tariffs may further expand.The cryptocurrency market has experienced a severe sell-off. As a risk indicator before the opening of the U.S. market, the cryptocurrency market saw nearly $2 billion in liquidations, with ETH declining more than BTC. Analysts believe that today's risk-averse sentiment is primarily driven by cross-asset portfolio rebalancing rather than a single asset event. Market volatility is expected to continue ahead of negotiations between Trump and Canada/Mexico and the implementation of EU tariff policies.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000 along with other risk assets, mainly influenced by the ongoing fallout from Deepseek-related news since the weekend. The analysis suggests that Deepseek's breakthroughs in cost efficiency and open-source technology may pose a threat to the United States' AI dominance. Trump has previously successfully used tariffs to force Colombia to accept the repatriation of immigrants, and the market is paying attention to the measures he may take in response to AI competition. QCP Capital states that Bitcoin is unlikely to break through the current range until a national strategy for Bitcoin reserves is confirmed. The Trump administration's assessment of "national digital asset reserves" has not been sufficient to maintain market optimism. The options risk reversal indicator shows that bullish sentiment is concentrated after March. As Deepseek poses a threat to the U.S. market, Trump may take action to stabilize the market. Ahead of the January 30 FOMC meeting, market volatility and VIX remain high, but QCP Capital expects Bitcoin to maintain relative resilience.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that with only one week left until Trump takes office as the 47th President of the United States, concerns about inflation continue in the market. The U.S. job market remains strong, with last week's non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations (256,000 vs. expected 165,000), and U.S. Treasury yields are rising, with the market only expecting two rate cuts in 2025-2026.From recent developments, the macroeconomic environment is not friendly to risk assets. However, one bright spot is that Trump's actual policies often differ significantly from his public statements. Concerns about inflation may not be as severe as the market expects. For cryptocurrencies, there are individuals in Trump's administration who support them. There are rumors that Trump will issue a broad and crypto-friendly executive order, which could provide support for short-term prices.Market volatility is expected to increase around the inauguration, as the market needs to digest and adapt to Trump's new term. QCP Capital remains cautious about downside risks, as the $90,000 level for Bitcoin has been tested multiple times. The stock market also appears fragile, and with rising global bond yields, it may trigger chaotic and gap-driven market movements.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that the global market is digesting the impact of the adjustment in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to its highest level since the end of 2023 at 4.8%, with the market not expecting any rate cuts until at least October. Stock index futures opened down 1.5%, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $90,000, before rebounding to above $95,000.QCP Capital expects that the upcoming PPI and CPI data may present upward risks. The market is adapting to the reality of a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, with some investors even considering the possibility of rate hikes. The Bitcoin options market shows cautious sentiment, with investors rolling over put options below the $90,000 support level, while near-month volatility and butterfly spreads remain elevated, and the VIX index stays at 18.68, suggesting that market volatility may persist into January.The report also notes that Trump may sign an executive order on his first day in office to address the issue of "de-banking" and repeal the controversial cryptocurrency accounting policy, which could bring positive catalysts to the market.