ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that if Bitcoin continues to follow the 2017 cycle, it could break through $1 million by the end of the year. Currently, Bitcoin's price has risen about 550% from the cycle low, which is consistent with previous cycles.In discussions about Bitcoin, the analysis of the four-year cycle is of great interest. This cycle revolves around Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reduces supply every four years. Typically, after each halving, Bitcoin's price sees a significant increase in the following year, and this cycle continues to show similar trends to the previous two cycles.As of now, Bitcoin's price has risen about 550% from the cycle low during the FTX collapse ($15,500). Data shows that in the current cycle, Bitcoin's performance is similar to that of the 2015 to 2018 cycle: after the cycle low on January 14, 2015, Bitcoin (blue line) also saw an increase of about 550%.If Bitcoin continues to follow the cycle trend from 2015 to 2018, by the end of the first quarter of 2025, its price could rise about 1,100% from the cycle low, reaching $186,000. The peak of this cycle may occur in October of this year, with an increase of 11,000%, pushing the price to around $1.7 million.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) has only experienced 3 years of losses in its entire history, performing more steadily compared to other investment assets.

ChainCatcher message, analyst Ali Martinez disclosed that the current important support level for Bitcoin is between $96,475 and $99,574, where 1.87 million addresses purchased 1.79 million Bitcoins.

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant posted on platform X indicating that the price of Bitcoin is expected to exceed $200,000 in 2025. Potential inflows of $520 billion, supportive cryptocurrency policies, and a four-year bull market cycle will drive this expectation.In addition, the multiplier effect means that for every $1 that flows in, the market value of Bitcoin could increase by $2-6.

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst Ali stated on social media that Bitcoin has broken through the cup and handle pattern, indicating its potential upward target price could be $276,400.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger stated in a report that the volatility of Bitcoin this week indicates an unstable start for cryptocurrencies in 2025.He mentioned that the recent fluctuations are mainly related to the volatility of traditional market sentiment, with crypto assets becoming more correlated with the U.S. stock market. The market has lowered its expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, which has pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while reducing risk appetite.He stated, "While there is much to say about Bitcoin's rebound in safe-haven trading, the market that trades Bitcoin as a risk asset remains active, and Bitcoin may decline when the stock market sells off."

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, Bitcoin Layer 2 project Stacks co-founder and CEO Muneeb Ali stated in an interview that he would be surprised if Bitcoin's price does not reach $150,000 by the end of the year, and he expects Bitcoin's price to potentially touch $200,000.Ali believes that the four-year cycle theory is still valid, and the current cycle will end in the fourth quarter of 2025. Additionally, he pointed out that if Trump is elected president, it will have significant positive implications for the crypto industry, especially with his appointment of crypto and AI head David Sachs, who has a deep understanding of cryptocurrencies.Ali also emphasized that if a Bitcoin reserve plan is implemented nationwide or in some states, it will send a strong signal to the world.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, since breaking through $90,000 for the first time on November 19, 2024, Bitcoin's price has consolidated in the range of $91,000 to $108,268. Multiple analysts believe that the current price consolidation is nearing its end.Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that the current 4-week adjustment, with a decline of 15%, is close to its conclusion, significantly lower than the historical 30-35% retracement levels. Technically, the Bollinger Bands indicator shows that volatility is at an oversold level. Additionally, the market widely expects that after Trump takes office on January 20, he will issue an executive order favorable to cryptocurrencies, with bullish options trading on the Deribit options platform reaching as high as $12,000.Analyst Trader Tardigrade anticipates that the market may experience a strong rebound after completing the final round of corrections.

According to ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk reported that the Bitcoin network difficulty was adjusted to 110.45T (trillion) this morning, setting a new historical high, marking the 8th consecutive positive adjustment. Historical data indicates that when Bitcoin experiences such a series of consecutive difficulty adjustments, it often signals that the market cycle's top or bottom is approaching.Similar consecutive adjustments occurred during the 2018 bear market and the 2021 bull market. After 9 consecutive adjustments from July to November 2021, the Bitcoin price reached a high of $69,000; whereas in 2018, there were 17 consecutive adjustments, after which Bitcoin entered a bear market, dropping to a low of $3,000.The current 7-day moving average of Bitcoin's hash rate has reached 775 EH/s, and CoinDesk Research predicts it may reach 1 ZH/s before the next halving. In the face of increasing competition, some listed mining companies, such as MARA Holdings, have shifted towards high-performance computing and AI, optimizing revenue through methods such as issuing convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin and lending Bitcoin for single-digit returns.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, finance professor David Krause stated that a significant drop in Bitcoin prices could severely impact MicroStrategy, jeopardizing its debt repayment ability and potentially leading to financial distress or bankruptcy, which could trigger a stock sell-off.Financial analyst Jacob King mentioned that when MicroStrategy's stock price is above its Bitcoin asset net worth, the company raises funds through debt or equity to purchase more Bitcoin. This cyclical strategy only works if BTC continues to rise; if BTC stagnates or crashes, this cycle will collapse.

ChainCatcher message, Glassnode posted on platform X: "The short-term holder (STH) cost model for Bitcoin is crucial for measuring the sentiment of new investors. Historically, this model tracks market lows during bull market cycles and distinguishes between bull and bear markets.Currently, the BTC price is about 7% higher than the STH cost basis ($88,135). If the price stabilizes below this level, it may indicate that the sentiment of new investors is weakening------this is often a turning point in market trends."

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst Willy Woo stated on social media that Bitcoin users' sentiment seems very optimistic, but a cautious approach should be taken in the coming months.During this cycle, risk has peaked for the first time, a large amount of Bitcoin has been sold for profit, and there is still a lot of profit-taking before prices truly normalize.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that despite facing temporary resistance from macroeconomic data, the price outlook for BTC remains "structurally bullish." "Bitcoin seems to be suppressed by the strengthening dollar, which is rising due to the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish policy and tariff threats." He added, "Today's strong employment report reduces the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, further supporting the dollar and potentially putting temporary pressure on Bitcoin prices."Additionally, he stated, "However, with the upcoming inauguration of the U.S. president, this setback may be short-lived." He further mentioned that he still believes "the outlook for cryptocurrency valuations is structurally bullish."

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst and network economist Timothy Peterson stated that the price of Bitcoin will reach a target of $1.5 million per coin, and it should be achieved within ten years. Timothy Peterson cited his own model, placing network expansion at the core of Bitcoin's future value proposition, predicting that by the mid-point of the next decade, the trading price of BTC/USD will increase by 15 times.It is reported that Timothy Peterson successfully predicted in 2020 that Bitcoin would not fall below $10,000 again.

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by CoinDesk, concerns about the U.S. Department of Justice potentially liquidating 69,370 Silk Road bitcoins (approximately $6.5 billion) are exaggerated. Analysts point out three key reasons:Although 69,370 bitcoins is a large amount, the government must follow the principle of optimal pricing during liquidation, and it is expected to proceed in an orderly, phased manner. At the same time, the market has long anticipated this possibility, and the related impact has already been partially absorbed.From the perspective of market absorption capacity, since September 2024, the holdings of long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) have decreased by over 1 million bitcoins, with current total holdings around 13.1 million. Despite such a large-scale sell-off, the price of bitcoin has risen from $60,000 to over $100,000, indicating strong market demand.The German government completed the sale of approximately 50,000 bitcoins (about $3.5 billion) between June and July 2023, providing an important reference for a liquidation of similar scale. At that time, the market had already bottomed out while the German government still held 25,000 bitcoins, indicating that such a scale of sell-off is not sufficient to dominate market trends.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bernstein analysts have released ten predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, reaffirming a Bitcoin price target of $200,000, and noting that the stablecoin market size will exceed $50 billion. The net inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs will surpass $70 billion, and the integration of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence will deepen further.Bernstein refers to 2025 as the beginning of the "Era of Infinity," believing it to be a "long-term period in which cryptocurrency technology continues to evolve and gain widespread acceptance." Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the cryptocurrency industry will gradually detach from cyclical fluctuations, integrating into the financial system and becoming an important part of the intelligent era. The report predicts that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will attract over $70 billion in net inflows, with institutional adoption rates rising rapidly, and the proportion of ETF investments held will increase from 22% in 2024 to 40%. Meanwhile, the capital expansion plans of MicroStrategy and Bitcoin miners will drive corporate financial adoption to reach $50 billion by 2025. Additionally, Bernstein expects the fusion of AI and the cryptocurrency industry to give rise to innovative fields such as decentralized AI blockchains, AI-integrated cryptocurrency wallets, and "human verification" based validation services; Bitcoin miners will also increasingly turn to AI to optimize business models and attract a broader range of institutional investors.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the average purchase price for Bitcoin buyers in 2024 is $65,901, with the market closing at around $93,000 on December 31, resulting in an average unrealized profit margin of about 40% for buyers in 2024.When the price of Bitcoin falls below the average purchase price from a previous period, it often marks a local bottom in price. This situation occurred once after the ETF launch in January 2024 and several times mid-year; monitoring the average cost of the group is a profitable trading strategy.Entering 2025, the average cost of Bitcoin is about $95,500, with buyers gaining a slim profit at the beginning of the year, and as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is around $96,000.

According to ChainCatcher news, data compiled by Trader T predicts that industry insiders and institutions generally believe that the price of Bitcoin will reach $180,000 to $200,000 in 2025, among which:Bemstein: $200,000Rich Dad Robert Kiyosaki: $350,000Fundstrat Global Advisors (Tom Lee): $200,000Standard Chartered (Geoff Kendrick): $200,000Arthur Hayes: $250,000VanEck: $180,000K33 Research: $212,500Bitwise Investments: $200,000+CoinShares: $80,000-$150,000Matrixport: $160,000Galaxy Digital: $185,000Bit Mining: $185,000Maple Finance: $180,000-$200,000Cathie Wood: $650,000-$1.5 million (2030)Michael Saylor: $3-49 million (2045)

ChainCatcher news, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders indicating that the Treasury expects the U.S. to reach its debt ceiling as early as between January 14 and 23, 2025, and may need to take "extraordinary measures" to avoid a federal government debt default.Raising the debt ceiling has historically been a negative signal for Bitcoin; in the past five such instances, Bitcoin experienced declines or poor performance in the following days.Since the cycle low in November 2022, Bitcoin has been consistent with the trends of the previous two cycles.The cycles from 2018-2022 and 2015-2018 both experienced significant pullbacks at this point in their respective cycles. Trump's inauguration on January 20 may serve as a bottom signal for Bitcoin.