Bitcoin price

Analysis: The tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifies, and the options market still bets on the $100,000 target by the end of June

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market experienced a brief euphoria following the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, only to fall back into profit-taking. Bitcoin retreated from a high of $86,000 to below $84,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 3%, while Ethereum fell below the psychological level of $2,000. Despite the overall pressure on the market, options traders remain optimistic about the mid-term outlook, with the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of June rising from 20% to nearly 30% within 24 hours.The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and announced a reduction in quantitative tightening (QT) in April, interpreted as a signal of de facto easing, which pushed Bitcoin to briefly surpass $85,000. BNB rose 8% during the week, showing strength against the trend, while XRP's weekly increase narrowed to 4.8%. The options market showed divergence, with Ethereum call options accounting for 60%, indicating a rise in bottom-fishing sentiment; 34% of Bitcoin options volume was used for downside protection, intensifying the long-short battle. After a brief euphoria, the market returned to rationality, with $80,000 becoming a key short-term support level for Bitcoin, focusing the new round of long-short contention. The optimistic expectations in the options market and the cautious sentiment in the spot market create a delicate balance, with a breakout from the moving average pressure potentially becoming the key to a trend reversal.

Analysis: The Monte Carlo model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will peak at $713,000 within 6 months

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear," a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025.Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant analyzed Bitcoin prices using Monte Carlo simulations and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate various possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates the average final price of Bitcoin to be $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (the 95th percentile return).However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model largely relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis carries uncertainty akin to "rolling dice." Last week, Quant also emphasized the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the total market cap could reach a new high of over $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.
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