ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, options traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate by 1.3% this Friday, which will be the largest fluctuation on a non-farm payroll data release day since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Citigroup data shows that the S&P 500 index is expected to have a two-way fluctuation of 1.4% on Wednesday, marking the highest implied volatility since the day after the U.S. presidential election on November 6, 2023.The increase in market volatility is mainly influenced by two factors: the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Trump recently warned of potential future economic fluctuations and defended his plan to significantly raise tariffs, but U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo indicated that Trump is considering some tariff relief measures, which has slightly eased market sentiment.The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at its highest level since December of last year, breaking through the 20-point mark. Economists expect that U.S. employment will increase by 160,000 in February, the unemployment rate will remain at 4%, and average hourly earnings will rise by 4.1% year-on-year. UBS equity derivatives strategist Grinkov stated, "Macroeconomic factors are becoming more important; this is a higher volatility environment."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Wells Fargo stated that some positive sentiment is emerging around the prospects of a tariff compromise, but caution is still needed.Wells Fargo's New York strategist Kenn Brendan McKenna said, "I have come to realize that any statements not directly from Trump should not be traded or believed immediately, so so far, I will still show caution and tend to hedge. However, if tariffs are lowered and an agreement is reached, the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, as well as the entire foreign exchange market, should see some relief rebound."

ChainCatcher news, as Trump's latest tariffs approach, the U.S. stock market faces a potentially vulnerable moment. The S&P 500 index has fallen about 5% from its historic closing high on February 19, and a series of weak economic reports in the U.S. have raised concerns about economic growth, while the tariffs have compounded the market outlook.Analysts generally believe that imposing tariffs on foreign imports could exacerbate inflation and cut into corporate profits. Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services, stated, "Currently, the market still views tariffs more as a negotiating tool rather than a long-term strategy, and if that begins to change, I think it will have a negative impact on the stock market." (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher News: U.S. consumer confidence in February fell short of expectations, marking the largest monthly decline in over three years. Additionally, Trump's statement about imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico after the grace period has heightened market concerns about tariffs and economic recession.According to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks saw more declines than gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones rising 0.37%, the S&P 500 falling 0.47%, and the Nasdaq dropping 1.35%. Most large tech stocks declined, with Tesla plummeting over 8.39%, bringing its market value below $1 trillion, followed closely by Nvidia, which fell 2.8%. A recent report from Goldman Sachs indicated that hedge funds are withdrawing from U.S. tech and media stocks at the fastest pace in six months, with the seven tech giants entering a technical correction zone.The cryptocurrency market had already led the decline ahead of U.S. stocks yesterday, with Bitcoin dropping to $86,050 at one point and Ethereum hitting a low of $2,313. The cooling of meme coin trends, along with the impending unlocking of a large number of tokens, caused SOL to experience the steepest decline, falling nearly 50% over the past month. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $774 million yesterday, continuing a six-day streak of net outflows. The crypto market has remained sluggish since February, and the week started with another significant drop, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 21, the lowest level since September of last year.In the forex market, consumer confidence data pressured the dollar, causing the dollar index to drop 0.2%, approaching a two-month low set on Monday. Market concerns about oil demand, coupled with potential peace negotiations in Russia, led to oil prices falling over 2%. After reaching new highs, investors took profits in gold, with spot gold dropping over 1.2%.A series of weak data recently suggests that the U.S. economy may be heading into recession. The S&P and Nasdaq have seen four consecutive declines, intensifying market worries about the impact of declining consumer confidence and tariff policies on the economy. Traders are generally maintaining a cautious stance, awaiting more economic data and policy guidance.

ChainCatcher news, according to CNBC, the US stock market continues to rise under the influence of multiple factors. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January was slightly higher than market expectations, but the data shows a downward trend in the prices of some important components. Citigroup analysts expect that this trend may indicate a moderation in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors.On the policy front, although Trump signed an executive order on reciprocal tariffs, he did not immediately impose tariffs on other countries, alleviating market concerns about escalating trade frictions. Analysts point out that despite facing inflationary pressures and policy uncertainties, investors still tend to focus on positive factors such as economic resilience and corporate profit growth. On that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.91%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.30%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi's report from CNBC, President Trump's tariff policy will be delayed and may start on April 1.

ChainCatcher news, according to Reuters, President Trump informed Republican lawmakers that he plans to announce retaliatory tariff policies as early as Friday. In previous campaign events, Trump promised to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports that are equal to the rates that trade partners impose on U.S. exports. The White House has not yet responded to requests for comment.

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg has questioned a series of actions taken by Trump in the cryptocurrency space since he took office, stating that President Trump and his entourage seem eager to establish their crypto empire. The family not only hopes to pave the way for the U.S. to support cryptocurrencies through more favorable regulations but also aims to secure a place in the positive outcomes.Based on the current (volatile) spot prices, the TRUMP holdings of entities related to Trump have an estimated book value of about $14.9 billion, with risks that are equally incredible. As token buyers and industry insiders see their opportunity to please Trump, the likelihood of quid pro quo and corruption will certainly increase. Additionally, moral hazard is also present.When Eric Trump tweeted a friendly suggestion that Ethereum is worth buying, he was by no means a neutral observer—when he removed the phrase "you can thank me later" from his post on X, he seemed to realize this. Meanwhile, the company has transferred most of its reserves to Coinbase Global Inc., and although it denied any plans to sell, it is difficult to assess what specific insider information might be involved. Trump's tariff policies are certainly not favorable to the crypto market, and the impact of Eric Trump's endorsements is similarly limited.Bloomberg believes that without effective enforcement and strengthening of regulations, oversight of the president's actions will become ineffective, and currently, Trump seems unencumbered by any constraints.

ChainCatcher news, Mechanism Capital partner Andrew Kang stated on social media that if China really starts a trade war with the U.S., Ethereum will drop back to the $2200-2400 range.Just now, the Tariff Commission of the State Council of China announced that starting from February 10, 2025, additional tariffs will be imposed on certain imported goods originating from the United States. A 15% tariff will be imposed on coal and liquefied natural gas, while a 10% tariff will be imposed on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement vehicles, and pickup trucks.

ChainCatcher news, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers stated in an interview that Trump's tariff policy goes against economic logic. This means higher prices for consumers and significantly higher input costs for American producers.Summers questioned, "Why are we now deciding to wage economic war against Canada among so many countries in the world? Canada's minimum wage and basic wages are higher, and unions provide more protection for workers than in the U.S. I just don't understand the logic of these policies; there is no doubt that this is a regressive tax on American consumers."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs strategists indicate that due to the latest round of tariffs from the Trump administration affecting profit forecasts, the U.S. stock market could potentially decline by 5% in the coming months.Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin wrote in a report: "These statements have shocked many investors, who expected tariffs to be imposed only in the event of a failure in trade negotiations. Our economists believe the outlook is uncertain, but they think the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are likely to be temporary."Kostin stated that if the latest tariffs persist, he would lower his profit forecasts for S&P 500 constituent companies by about 2% to 3%, not accounting for the impact of further tightening financial conditions or changes in consumer and business behavior. He also warned that due to the dual impact on profits and stock valuations, the fair value of the S&P 500 index could decline by about 5% in the short term.

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report shows that the Bitcoin market is undergoing a structural transformation. Although the BTC price fell below $100,000 due to Trump's tariff policy, the continuous accumulation by institutional investors indicates market resilience. MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 10,107 bitcoins for $1.1 billion, bringing its total holdings to 158,400 bitcoins, and submitted a financing application to the SEC in preparation for future purchases; the Japanese listed company Metaplanet completed a $745 million financing to expand its Bitcoin reserves to hedge against the risk of yen depreciation. In January 2025, BTC recorded a 10% increase, with prices consolidating within a 15% range for nearly 65 days.On a macro level, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets has increased, with a 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 reaching 0.8, a new five-month high. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with inflation still above the 2% target, and core PCE year-on-year remaining at 2.8%. Meanwhile, Tether is integrating its $140 billion USDT into the Bitcoin Lightning Network, enhancing network payment efficiency through Taproot Assets technology, and driving Bitcoin's transformation from a store of value to a payment network.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the first round of trade policies from the Trump administration has triggered significant volatility in global markets. The yield curve for government bonds has entered a bear flattening phase—2-year yields are rising while 10-year yields are falling, indicating market concerns about short-term inflation and the long-term risks of the trade war on global economic growth.The gold price spread between New York and London has widened, reflecting not only the closure of popular EFP arbitrage trades but also suggesting that the transfer of gold between different vaults may face logistical challenges, reminding the market of the uncertainty that tariffs may further expand.The cryptocurrency market has experienced a severe sell-off. As a risk indicator before the opening of the U.S. market, the cryptocurrency market saw nearly $2 billion in liquidations, with ETH declining more than BTC. Analysts believe that today's risk-averse sentiment is primarily driven by cross-asset portfolio rebalancing rather than a single asset event. Market volatility is expected to continue ahead of negotiations between Trump and Canada/Mexico and the implementation of EU tariff policies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Nikkei 225 index closed down 1052.40 points on February 3 (Monday), a decrease of 2.66%, at 38520.09 points; the South Korean KOSPI index closed down 64.04 points on February 3 (Monday), a decrease of 2.54%, at 2453.33 points.

According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency market has been severely impacted following Trump's announcement of new tariffs. Specifically, BTC fell by 4.3% in trading last Sunday, ETH dropped by 8%, and the sell-off of altcoins was even more intense, with DOGE declining by around 14%, while altcoins like XRP, ADA, AVAX, and LINK all fell by more than 10%.Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets, stated: Trump's tariff policy is affecting the entire market, and concerns about a recession triggered by the trade war and stagflation are spreading to the altcoin and Bitcoin markets.According to a U.S. official, Trump is imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which will trigger a new round of trade wars.