Bitfinex

Bitfinex: Bitcoin consolidates in the $100,000 range, but the market shows signs of stabilization

ChainCatcher message, Bitfinex post analysis, last week, Bitcoin reached an all-time high, breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time, hitting a historic high of $104,000. This marks a 111% increase from Bitcoin's low of below $50,000 during the summer. However, after the rebound, there was a significant 14.84% pullback, including a rapid 10% drop within just eight minutes, which is the largest pullback from the current all-time high since the sell-off before the U.S. elections. This pullback triggered over $1.1 billion in liquidations, with $419 million in Bitcoin long positions, highlighting the level of leverage in the market.Despite the market's extreme volatility, signs of stabilization are emerging. The realized profit metric had peaked at $10.5 billion daily but has now dropped to $2.5 billion, easing selling pressure. The futures funding rate has also normalized, indicating a decrease in speculative leverage. Although ETF inflows slightly slowed over the weekend, they remain a key source of support against the backdrop of long-term holders continuing to take profits. As Bitcoin consolidates above $100,000, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, and with the normalization of funding rates and easing selling pressure, there is potential for further upside as long as ETF inflows continue to increase.Additionally, the Federal Reserve is assessing potential policy shifts that the new government may undertake, while the economy remains supported by a resilient labor market and stable consumer demand. However, the uneven recovery across various sectors suggests a need for cautious optimism.

Bitfinex: Despite potential short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin is still expected to continue rising

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex released a report stating, "Despite some brief turbulence last week, November was a peak month for Bitcoin. Bitcoin experienced its largest pullback since the U.S. elections, dropping 8.64% during the week to $90,911, before quickly rebounding and setting a historic closing record at the end of the month, reaching $96,506. Bitcoin ended November with an impressive gain of 37.3%, making it the second-best performing month of 2024 so far.This outstanding performance continues to highlight Bitcoin's strong momentum, preparing us for December. Historically, December is usually a month of high volatility for Bitcoin, but during halving years, the average return for this asset is 38.86%. Given the current bull market dynamics, we believe Bitcoin is likely to continue rising, although it may experience short-term fluctuations. Any short-term pullbacks are likely to be triggered by ETF outflows and profit-taking by long-term holders. Last week, ETFs recorded a net outflow of $135.1 million, most of which occurred in the first two days of trading. Since September, long-term holders have distributed a significant amount of 508,990 Bitcoins, increasing the supply in the market. While this is still below the 934,000 Bitcoins distributed before the March 2024 peak, the ongoing selling pressure requires sustained demand from ETFs and marginal buyers to avoid further pullbacks.Interestingly, the supply of short-term holders is approaching its cyclical high of 3,282,000 Bitcoins. Historically, the final stages of a bull market typically occur when the supply of short-term holders breaks above the pre-halving cycle high. This shift indicates an increasing participation of retail investors, but it also highlights the market's reliance on incoming demand to absorb the profit-taking from long-term holders.As Bitcoin further enters the bull market cycle, the current consolidation phase is a necessary pause to absorb profit-taking and adjust market demand. With the recovery of ETF inflows and increased retail interest, we believe Bitcoin still has a solid foundation to break through the psychological barrier of $100,000."

Bitfinex latest research: Speculative funds are shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins, usually signaling the arrival of "altcoin season."

ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex released a report stating, "Bitcoin's approach to the historic $100,000 mark is driven by unprecedented inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and strong institutional demand. Despite facing profit-taking resistance at its latest all-time high, Bitcoin has shown resilience, maintaining around $96,000 over the weekend and then regaining some upward momentum in early trading on Monday. Since the pre-U.S. presidential election low of $66,880, Bitcoin has risen by 47%, and it has astonishingly increased by 130% year-to-date, paving the way for new horizons. The performance of Bitcoin compared to traditional assets is undeniable: Bitcoin's market capitalization has now surpassed Saudi Aramco, becoming the seventh-largest asset globally, with a peak valuation exceeding $1.9 trillion.Although Bitcoin's upward momentum is remarkable, it is not without profit-taking from long-term holders. Despite increased pressure, the current pressure remains manageable compared to the historical peaks in March 2021 and March 2024. These trends indicate a temporary stagnation in market momentum, but the overall market may absorb selling pressure and continue to rise in the medium term.The overall cryptocurrency market (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, referred to as the Total3 index) has also reached a new cycle high, with investor sentiment surging, driving the Total3 index to experience a 23.2% increase from low to high last week—this is the largest increase since April 2021. Large-cap altcoins, such as Solana (SOL), have reached new all-time highs, marking their breakthrough of key resistance levels, including the April 2022 peak.The market capitalization of altcoins is now approaching the $984 billion high from May 2021, indicating that speculative funds are shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins. Historically, this kind of fund rotation often heralds the arrival of "altcoin season," where altcoins outperform Bitcoin.In fact, the annualized funding rate for large-cap altcoins has surpassed the 45% threshold, marking an increase in speculative activity. With the participation of retail investors on the rise, short-term volatility is expected to increase, further driving the momentum of altcoins. However, these conditions also require caution, as extreme funding rates often signal severe market corrections."
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