ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that as the market anticipates the White House cryptocurrency summit, Trump has signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset reserve" ahead of time. Although this move is widely expected to be beneficial for Bitcoin, the market has shown a typical "sell the news" reaction, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $90,000 to $85,000 after the signing.The timing of the signing caught the market off guard, especially for investors who had built positions in anticipation of a more optimistic outcome from the summit. Volatility has significantly decreased, and risk reversals have once again shifted towards bearish options, with previous bullish positions being rapidly closed.The sharp market drop may stem from the realization that there has not been an actual budget allocation for Bitcoin purchases recently. Initially, the reserve will mainly utilize the Bitcoin already held by the U.S. government, primarily from criminal or civil asset seizures. However, this does not rule out the possibility of continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in the future. The Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary have been authorized to explore budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin, provided that it does not increase the burden on taxpayers.Although this is not the direct positive factor many were hoping for, it still has structurally positive implications for cryptocurrencies. The risk of random sell-offs of Silk Road Bitcoin disrupting the market has been eliminated, and the U.S. government's commitment to a long-term cryptocurrency strategy has been reaffirmed. As the announcement of the strategic Bitcoin reserve settles, market expectations for tonight's White House cryptocurrency summit have cooled, shifting the focus to tonight's non-farm payroll data.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME FedWatch data, after the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March dropped from 14.5% to 8.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose from 85.5% to 91.5%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, based on the expectations of major investment banks, the forecast range for non-farm payrolls is between 60,000 and 250,000, with most expectations concentrated in the range of 140,000 to 200,000, and the market consensus is an increase of 170,000;The market consensus for the unemployment rate is 4.1% (accounting for 68%), followed by 4.2% (accounting for 24%), 4.0% (accounting for 6%), and 4.3% and 4.5% (accounting for 1% each);The market consensus for the year-on-year average hourly wage growth rate is 3.8% (accounting for 49%), followed by 3.7% and 3.9% (accounting for 28% and 14% respectively);The market consensus for the month-on-month average hourly wage growth rate is 0.3% (accounting for 75%), followed by 0.4% (accounting for 21%).When the data falls within a less expected range, its impact on the market is greater.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data at 21:30 tonight, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 14.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.5%.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 3.7%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 32.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 63.4%.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data reached 256,000, far exceeding the expected 164,000, indicating signs of an overheating economy. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, coupled with concerns about inflation that may arise from the potential reactivation of tariff policies from the Trump era.Despite macro pressures and ongoing Silk Road FUD, Bitcoin and Ethereum support levels have temporarily stabilized at $91,000 and $3,100, respectively. The volatility in the options market has gently declined, maintaining a slight bearish bias only before Trump's inauguration. This week, PPI, CPI, and unemployment data will be released sequentially. Against the backdrop of a continuously warming U.S. economy, this week will be a critical period to test the inflation hedging function of cryptocurrencies.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that given the latest non-farm payroll data (strong), the Federal Reserve is expected to make the next interest rate cut in June, whereas the previous forecast was for March.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," before the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 72.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27.9%.

ChainCatcher news, ING analyst Chris Turner stated in a report that the market remains cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release in November, with the dollar holding steady.Weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data could disrupt the recent strengthening trend of the dollar since Trump's election victory, although it is unlikely that the dollar will appreciate again for a long time. U.S. employment numbers are expected to rebound after a weak month last time. A growth of fewer than 200,000 jobs may be considered a "bad number," while more than 300,000 is seen as a "good number." ING suggests treating any dollar decline as a buying opportunity. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher News: At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November will be released.As of the time of writing, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is currently 71.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, UBS released a research report stating that due to Trump's trade threats against BRICS countries, the dollar index has surpassed 106, but the current valuation appears to be overly high. Although the outlook for the dollar still seems bright, UBS analysts suggest that investors take advantage of the dollar's strength to reduce their dollar exposure in the short term.Market attention is turning to key economic events this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Wednesday and Friday's non-farm payroll data. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market expects a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. NatAlliance Securities' head of international fixed income, Brenner, stated that this data will determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month.Regarding the euro, influenced by the French government's facing a vote of no confidence, the euro fell nearly 0.8% against the dollar on Monday, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly a month. The three-month implied volatility of the euro rose to 8.172%, reaching a two-year high. The yield spread between French and German bonds has risen to a 12-year high, reflecting increasing market concerns about political risks in the eurozone.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the October non-farm payroll data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, on Thursday local time, U.S. stocks opened lower and the decline widened, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks collectively falling. Despite the "Tech Seven Sisters" having outstanding revenue and profits, the market was disappointed with their performance guidance considering the current stock prices and valuation levels, leading to a broad sell-off. The Nasdaq fell sharply, closing down 2.76%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months, with a cumulative drop of 0.52% in October, ending a two-month rising streak; the Dow Jones closed down 0.90%, with a cumulative drop of 1.34% in October, halting a five-month rising streak; the S&P 500 fell 1.86%, with a cumulative drop of 0.99% in October, also ending a five-month rising streak.The cryptocurrency market fell collectively under the influence of U.S. stocks. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, trading at $69,851, down 3.18%, having risen nearly 10% in October due to increased trading activity related to Trump. Ethereum fell 5.1%, trading at $2,516, with a cumulative drop of 4.28% in October.The U.S. dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, closing down 0.2%, but had a cumulative rise of about 3.1% in October. The dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan weakened, with the yen rising 1%, and a cumulative rise of 5.86% in October. Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated beyond expectations in October, strengthening the European Central Bank's cautious rate cut rationale, with the euro strengthening by 0.26%, but a cumulative drop of 2.25% in October. The British pound fell 0.51% against the dollar, with a cumulative drop of 3.55% in October.International crude oil continued its upward trend due to the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil rising over 2% at one point, and Brent crude closing up 1.87%, with a cumulative rise of about 2.38% in October. The demand for safe-haven assets ahead of the U.S. presidential election has driven gold prices to rise for four consecutive months, continuously hitting new highs, with spot gold having a cumulative rise of about 4.2% in October.Latest data shows that the U.S. PCE inflation in September increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The market is focusing on the U.S. non-farm payroll report for October to be released tonight. Currently, the market generally expects that the number of new non-farm jobs in October will significantly slow down due to temporary unemployment caused by hurricanes and strikes. It is worth mentioning that when the employment report is released this Friday, there will only be four days left until the U.S. presidential election. If the data is extremely weak, it may affect the election and increase market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential safe-haven options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, last Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for September unexpectedly surged by 254,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, solidifying expectations for a healthy economic soft landing and prompting the market to retract bets on a significant interest rate cut in November.According to 4E observations, buoyed by expectations of an economic soft landing, U.S. stocks opened higher and closed up on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.90%, gaining 0.22% for the week, the Nasdaq up 1.22%, with a weekly increase of 0.1%, and the Dow Jones up 0.81%, with a slight weekly gain of 0.09%. The China concept index rose over 3% and gained nearly 12% for the week. The cryptocurrency market followed the rise in U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin climbing back above $63,000, closing at 63,859, narrowing its weekly decline to 1.03%, while Ethereum reported 2,507, with a weekly decline narrowed to 4.18%. In the foreign exchange and commodities market, safe-haven demand and favorable economic data drove the dollar index to rise for five consecutive days this week, reaching a seven-week high, while non-U.S. currencies fell broadly, with the euro down 1.8% against the dollar for the week and the pound down 2%. The robust employment data eliminated expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, leading to a rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which put continuous pressure on gold prices, with spot gold declining 0.5% for the week, ending a three-week streak of gains. The market continues to worry about the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East leading to supply disruptions, with oil prices rising for five consecutive days, and Brent crude increasing over 9% for the week.This week, the market focus is mainly on the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, the publication of U.S. inflation data for September, and earnings reports from major banks, which will provide important economic clues for the market. Additionally, attention should be paid to the developments in the Middle East situation. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential safe-haven option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, BTC Markets' crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated, "Bitcoin appears to be overbought on the daily chart, with prices starting to pull back after reaching a high of $66,498 last Friday, and momentum has weakened since last week."Lucas pointed out that Ethereum is also facing challenges in regaining momentum, as it lost momentum after breaking above the 50-day simple moving average last week. According to TheBlock's Ethereum price page, Ethereum has dropped 1.69% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $2,626. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on two key macroeconomic events this week: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the National Association for Business Economics on Monday, and the U.S. non-farm payroll report released on Friday. Lucas stated, "Powell's remarks, especially those regarding inflation and interest rates, often influence the market, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Any hawkish tone could further exacerbate risk-off sentiment, leading to today's decline."

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that if next week's non-farm payroll data is weaker than expected, it will confirm the rationale for the U.S. to start cutting interest rates in September. Currently, the probability of a rate cut is 33.0% (25 basis points) and 67% (50 basis points).Given that recent macro news has had little impact on the cryptocurrency market, QCP Capital believes that BTC may maintain a range fluctuation between $58,000 and $65,000 in the short term, as the market is waiting for a positive catalyst to break through this range.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm data was released, traders increased their bets on interest rate cuts for 2024, now expected to be 111 basis points.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payroll data was released, the US Dollar Index DXY gapped down by 40 points, currently reported at 103.67.In addition, traders have increased their bets on a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the future, with traders betting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September, following an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in July.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, as the market awaits the U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday, analysts at ING (International Netherlands Group) warn that the data may lean towards weakness, which could exacerbate volatility in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect that the data, to be released at 20:30 Beijing time, will show that the U.S. added 185,000 jobs in July, down from 206,000 in June; the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, unchanged from June, while the annual growth rate of hourly wages may slow to 3.7%. ING analysts explained in a report to clients on Friday, "Evidence from the employment components of the ISM and NFIB surveys suggests that the risks are tilted towards a decline in employment," which explains their bearish view on the dollar.A weak report would undoubtedly strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, diminishing the dollar's appeal. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out the possibility of significant rate cuts on Wednesday, traders are already anticipating that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September and increase easing measures. ING stated that once the safe-haven demand brought about by ongoing stock market turbulence and geopolitical tensions diminishes, macroeconomic forces may drive the dollar lower.