ChainCatcher news, Monex Europe senior foreign exchange market analyst Nick Rees stated that the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision marks the beginning of the FOMC's extended pause on rate cuts, although it is still too early to say this definitively.It is now expected that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold at least until the first half of 2025. If this is correct, it should support the dollar's upward movement in the coming months.

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expressed his views on X, detailing why he believes the current bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market will continue.Despite the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement causing a short-term shock to the market—reducing next year's rate cut expectations from 4 times to 2 times—Hougan believes this is merely a brief interlude in the bull market process. He pointed out that the cryptocurrency market has developed an endogenous momentum independent of Federal Reserve policy, with four core trends continuously driving industry development:Washington's regulatory attitude has clearly shifted to a more supportive stance.Institutional investors are entering the market at an accelerated pace, with ETF funds continuing to flow in.Government and corporate entities are strategically increasing their Bitcoin holdings.Breakthroughs in programmable blockchain technology.From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's 10-day exponential moving average (approximately $102,000) continues to stay above the 20-day moving average (approximately $99,000). Hougan stated that this classic technical indicator has historically reflected market trends well.Hougan emphasized that the cryptocurrency market is in a new multi-year bull market cycle, and he expects that a 50bps rate cut will not change this.

ChainCatcher news, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday a scheduled rate cut of 25 basis points, but significantly raised future policy rate expectations and inflation expectations, now expecting only two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points next year, halving the previous expectation.According to 4E monitoring, after the release of the Fed's dot plot and economic outlook, risk aversion sentiment surged, causing all three major U.S. stock indices to decline. The S&P 500 index fell by 2.95%, the Dow Jones dropped by 2.58%, marking its longest losing streak since 1974 at ten consecutive days, and the Nasdaq fell by 3.56%. Tesla dropped over 8%, leading the decline among tech giants. Cryptocurrency-related stocks also fell broadly, with MSTR down 9.52% and Coinbase down 10.2%.The Fed's actions have dragged down the U.S. stock market, leading to a significant correction in the crypto market. BTC fell below $100,000, with Powell's remark that "the Fed does not allow nor intends to hold Bitcoin" intensifying selling pressure, resulting in a Bitcoin decline of up to 6.2%, reporting at $99,235 before the deadline. Ethereum briefly dipped to $3,542, a drop of 7.27%, while altcoins generally experienced double-digit declines. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $842 million, deepening market panic.In the forex and commodities sector, the Fed's drastic cut in rate cut expectations pushed the dollar index up over 1% to a two-year high; gold prices fell over 1% to a one-month low; U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, pushing oil prices higher, but the slowing pace of rate cuts dampened oil demand outlook, causing oil prices to rise and then gradually erase gains.After announcing a rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% as expected in this meeting, the Fed's released "dot plot" indicated that only two more rate cuts are expected by 2025, halving the planned number of cuts compared to the September dot plot, with a hawkish stance exceeding expectations, leading to extreme fear in the market. Fed officials also expect two more rate cuts in 2026 and one more in 2027.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, based on CME Federal Reserve observation data, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range at this week's FOMC meeting, marking the second rate cut since November, with the current expected probability as high as 93.4%.Luis Buenaventura, head of cryptocurrency at GCash, stated that since the rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market, the direct impact of this policy adjustment on cryptocurrency prices will be relatively limited. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin experiences a 50% increase within 60 days, there is about a two-thirds probability of achieving an additional 35% increase in the following two months.Neal Wen, global business development director at Kronos Research, added that in a low-interest-rate environment, institutional investors tend to view crypto assets as an alternative to traditional investments. Min Jung, a research analyst at Presto Labs, pointed out that the market focus has shifted to the policy speech content and the latest economic projections dot plot from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which will provide important guidance for the direction of monetary policy in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Tianfeng Securities released a research report indicating that the market has strong expectations for interest rate cuts. At the beginning of the week, after the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for November, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 86%, further increasing the expectations for rate cuts within the year.Subsequently, the U.S. CPI data for November met market expectations, bringing the market's anticipation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December close to 100%. At the same time, the market also increased its bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January next year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, the enhanced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut also helped boost investor sentiment on Wednesday. After the U.S. CPI inflation met expectations, speculators increased their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the prospect of monetary policy easing drove the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index to a record high.Henry Elder, head of UTXO Management, stated, "The market likes to see inflation meet expectations," and added that traders are "trying to figure out whether $100,000 is the ceiling or the floor for Bitcoin."

ChainCatcher news, Investors Edge Market and Research Director John Choong stated that after the release of the non-farm payroll report in November, the market predicts a greater than 90% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month, which has exceeded market expectations. Traders seem to focus on the fact that while the U.S. job market shows no signs of cooling, it also shows no signs of heating up. However, Choong's interpretation of the data is different.He believes that the non-farm payroll data for November indicates that last month's weakness was merely a temporary phenomenon caused by the hurricane, and the U.S. labor market is resilient. The Federal Reserve needs to carefully "thread the needle," as they cannot cut rates too early if inflation remains high. He expects rate cut expectations to be repriced, "because today's strong data challenges the view of a rate cut in December."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the recently released U.S. personal consumption expenditure data met expectations, and the market is optimistic about the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, with gold prices slightly rising in the Asian early session.Analysts from ANZ Research stated in a research report that during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the overall market performance was sluggish overnight, and the commodity market currently estimates a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 56% a week ago.Meanwhile, analysts noted that the geopolitical tensions in Europe have also boosted demand for safe-haven assets following the Russian missile strikes on Ukraine.

ChainCatcher news: After a strong surge following the election, market sentiment has somewhat cooled last week. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell seems intent on slowing down interest rate cuts, which has dampened the excitement generated by the "Trump trade."According to 4E monitoring, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to weaken after reaching new highs on Monday. On Friday, a significant cut in interest rate expectations put pressure on the stock market, causing it to decline across the board. The S&P 500 index fell 2% over the past five trading days, erasing half of its gains since the election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.24% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.15%, marking its largest weekly decline since September.Bitcoin, after breaking through $93,000 on Wednesday to set a new all-time high, began to consolidate amid the pullback in U.S. stocks but showed resilience. It is currently trading in a narrow range around the $90,000 mark. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $90,799, with a 7-day increase of nearly 12%. Other altcoins followed Bitcoin's fluctuations, with SOL benefiting from the MEME frenzy, demonstrating strong rebound and upward momentum.In the commodities market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve has led to a continued strengthening of the dollar, reaching its highest level in over a year. The dollar index rose 1.6% last week and has increased for seven consecutive weeks. The strong dollar continues to pressure commodities, with spot gold falling about 4.6% last week, marking its largest weekly decline in three years, and retreating nearly 9.3% from its historical high. U.S. oil fell nearly 5%, while Brent crude dropped nearly 4%.Current market focus is on inflation concerns following the Trump administration's rise and the Federal Reserve's more hawkish outlook. Powell's speech on Thursday essentially indicated that Fed officials do not need to rush into rate cuts, leading traders to significantly reduce their rate cut expectations. The retreat in sentiment and uncertainty in monetary policy have increased upward resistance in the market. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to be aware of market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data shows that the unemployment rate in the UK rose more than expected, while wage growth slowed, but was slightly below expectations. After the data was released, the pound fell from 1.2825 to a three-month low of 1.2800 against the dollar, and the euro rose from 0.8294 to 0.8303 against the pound.In the three months to September, the unemployment rate increased from 4% in the previous quarter to 4.3%. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose by 4.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 4.7%. XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks stated in a report: "The rise in the unemployment rate may lead the market to start pricing in a rate cut by the Bank of England next month."

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that there are only 2 weeks left until the U.S. election, which is currently attracting a lot of attention. In the prediction market, Trump has begun to expand his lead over Harris, while polls in key swing states are currently leaning towards the Republican Party. The market is currently pricing in the possibility of Trump being elected president. Discussions about increased tariffs and tax cuts have led to a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Given Trump's more crypto-friendly stance, it is not surprising that Bitcoin's trading price has risen.The S&P 500 index continues to set new historical highs, and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has once again surpassed 4%. Driven by an unprecedented volume of open contracts on exchanges, Bitcoin has moved towards $69,000. The total open contract volume for exchange futures currently stands at $40.5 billion. The market is currently expecting a 1.5 rate cut in 2024. A stronger-than-expected labor market and the increased likelihood of Trump being elected president have rekindled hopes that U.S. economic growth will remain strong. With uncertainty in the labor market still present, all eyes are on the non-farm payroll report (NFP) set to be released next Friday. As the last NFP report before the next Federal Reserve meeting, it will play a key role in shaping market expectations for the Fed's next interest rate actions. Ahead of the employment data release and the election, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain well-supported with upside potential.

ChainCatcher news, short-term interest rate futures traders believe that the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in November rather than 50 basis points. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Binance CEO Richard Teng commented on the expectations of interest rate cuts, stating, "We expect that the expectations of interest rate cuts will have a significant impact on the prices of crypto assets. Lower interest rates enhance the liquidity of the financial system, thereby boosting the demand for high-yield, high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. For example, from February 2020 to February 2022, when interest rates were near zero, the price of Bitcoin increased by 375%.Lower interest rates may raise concerns about inflation, prompting some investors to turn to cryptocurrencies to protect their purchasing power; low rates may also weaken the dollar, leading more investors to view crypto assets as an alternative store of value. Bitcoin and other crypto assets have unique characteristics that may influence their prospects during periods of interest rate cuts. One key factor to consider is the recent Bitcoin halving, as historically, price increases have generally occurred 6-18 months after similar events. The launch of spot ETFs could also facilitate easier transitions between stocks and cryptocurrencies, allowing the liquidity growth brought by interest rate cuts to flow into the crypto market.Moreover, while September is typically a weak month for crypto assets, prices usually begin to rebound in October, and the expectations of interest rate cuts may provide additional momentum as prices recover. The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the crypto asset market remains uncertain, but several indicators suggest that the policy changes in September may be timely for cryptocurrency investors. Lower borrowing costs and increased liquidity present a hopeful outlook for crypto assets. Historical trends and unique cryptocurrency-specific variables further enhance optimism that these policy changes could foster growth."

ChainCatcher news, Steve Englander, the Global G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy Head at Standard Chartered Bank's New York branch, stated that recent U.S. economic data does not provide a compelling reason for a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. A 50 basis point cut with a decision error could be worse than a 25 basis point cut with a decision error. The rationale for a 25 basis point cut is that the upcoming inflation data does not support inflation rapidly approaching the 2% target. Meanwhile, the recent rise in unemployment also indicates a concerning deterioration in the economy. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, as traders increasingly lean towards betting on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, the dollar fell during the Asian trading session on Monday. The decline of the dollar boosted major currencies like the yen, which rose to its highest level since July 2023.After weeks of debate over whether the Federal Reserve would initiate its easing policy with a 25 or 50 basis point cut, traders are leaning towards the latter option. Futures prices linked to the Fed's rate cut decision this week indicate a roughly 58% chance of a 50 basis point cut, compared to a 50-50 prediction late last Friday.Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at the National Australia Bank, stated, "We believe the Federal Reserve is about to enter a new round of easing, which is a significant disadvantage for the dollar. As the Fed relaxes monetary policy next year, lowering the fund rate to neutral or even below neutral levels, the dollar will begin a cyclical decline." (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, Elmar Voelker, a senior fixed income analyst at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), said in a report that the new interest rate expectations, or dot plot, to be released by the Federal Reserve at next week's meeting are unlikely to align with the currently warming expectations for rate cuts. He stated, "Whether the forecast adjustments can keep pace with market expectations seems at least questionable." The same goes for the 2025 forecast.Voelker noted that the dot plot could become a "potential stumbling block for rising bond prices." The market speculates that the Federal Reserve may cut rates significantly by 50 basis points next week, but the bank's recent forecast only suggests a rate cut of 25 basis points this year. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on social media that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference clarified the Fed's interest rate cut in September. There is currently a consensus on a 25 basis point cut, but if economic data pressures are significant this month, a 50 basis point cut is also possible. The clear commitment to rate cuts has given the market great confidence, leading to a rebound in major cryptocurrencies, although the subsequent trend still carries a lot of uncertainty.This week, there are several important economic data releases, as well as speeches from several key figures, primarily focused on the Fed's rate cut in September. Additionally, Russia's cryptocurrency legislation is also worth paying attention to, as crypto begins to take center stage.ETH has remained sluggish since the Cancun upgrade, with Gas now below 0.8 Gwei. The significant reduction in ETH consumption has caused the deflationary flywheel to fail, and currently, there seems to be no opportunity for an ETH exchange rate rebound, making the bearish ratio a good value for money.Key Events This Week:8/27 Tuesday2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks8/28 WednesdayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaks8/29 ThursdayInitial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook8/30 FridayU.S. July Core PCE Price Index Year-on-YearU.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on monetary policy and economic outlookRussia will begin implementing the digital currency cross-border payment law and the legalization of cryptocurrency mining legislation

ChainCatcher news, Quilter Investors' investment strategist Lindsay James stated that President Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and support for Kamala Harris reduces the likelihood of a Trump landslide victory, and the market may experience some volatility in the next four months.However, she wrote in a research report that, compared to election news, interest rate cut expectations will still be the driving factor for market returns. She added that the market is increasingly pricing in a Trump victory, with small companies being buoyed by widespread expectations of import tariffs.