ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the dollar is hovering near a four-month low as investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming key U.S. non-farm payroll report. Concerns over a slowdown in U.S. economic growth have led the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting recent pressure on the dollar. This means that the employment data will become particularly important.Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated in a report that weaker-than-expected employment data could further weaken the dollar. In the worst-case scenario, if job numbers fall below expectations while wage growth exceeds expectations, it would put the Federal Reserve in a position of facing an economic slowdown, but with limited room to provide support.

ChainCatcher news, CITIC Securities research report points out that in January 2025, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was lower than expected, with healthcare services, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the United States did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The unemployment rate has decreased, wage growth has increased, and the annual revisions showed fewer downward adjustments than the preliminary revisions, indicating a healthy job market. It is expected that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Musk will have a minimal impact on new non-farm jobs in 2025.The non-farm data broke the relatively optimistic sentiment in the market following the December CPI release, and expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed again. The market's focus will now revolve around Trump's tariff haze and inflation expectations, with U.S. stocks expected to remain highly volatile. If the January CPI or tariff plans exceed expectations, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index may rise again. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, each by 25bps.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analyst Anstey stated that the strong performance of January's non-farm payroll data confirms expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. With the labor market remaining resilient, Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to be eager to restart the rate-cutting process.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the non-farm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in November, revised up by 49,000 from 212,000; the non-farm payroll employment in December was revised up by 51,000 from 256,000 to 307,000. After the revisions, the total increase in employment for November and December is 100,000 higher than before the revisions.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, based on the expectations of major investment banks, the forecast range for non-farm payrolls is between 60,000 and 250,000, with most expectations concentrated in the range of 140,000 to 200,000, and the market consensus is an increase of 170,000;The market consensus for the unemployment rate is 4.1% (accounting for 68%), followed by 4.2% (accounting for 24%), 4.0% (accounting for 6%), and 4.3% and 4.5% (accounting for 1% each);The market consensus for the year-on-year average hourly wage growth rate is 3.8% (accounting for 49%), followed by 3.7% and 3.9% (accounting for 28% and 14% respectively);The market consensus for the month-on-month average hourly wage growth rate is 0.3% (accounting for 75%), followed by 0.4% (accounting for 21%).When the data falls within a less expected range, its impact on the market is greater.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the financial website Forexlive indicates that the January non-farm payrolls are likely to show better-than-expected numbers. Another factor to keep in mind is the wildfires in California in January, which may cause temporary impacts.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan stated that the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be released later on Friday must be just right, neither too hot nor too cold, for the U.S. stock market to continue rising.The trading department led by Andrew Taylor indicated that if the number of new jobs is below 150,000, the stock market will decline, while if the number exceeds 230,000, it will also put pressure on the stock market, as this would increase bets on the Federal Reserve having to raise interest rates.They noted that in a pessimistic scenario, "the risk is that the cooling of the job market happens faster than expected, which would drag down spending." They predict that a figure as low as 110,000 would cause the S&P 500 index to drop by 1.5%, as it suggests that concerns surrounding global trade are impacting the U.S. economy at a faster pace than anticipated.

ChainCatcher news, Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown stated in a report that from the perspective of the Federal Reserve's policy, it is hard to imagine that the U.S. employment report will be a game changer.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that policymakers need to see real progress on inflation or some degree of weakness in the labor market before considering another rate cut. For the market, the employment report may be a situation where "good news is good news" or vice versa. The market is focused on the potential economic situation rather than any potential policy implications.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, LPL Financial analyst Jeffrey Roach stated that the average monthly job growth in the U.S. private sector in 2024 is expected to be 149,000, down from 192,000 in 2023, with a further decline anticipated in 2025. In December, non-farm payrolls surged by 256,000, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased (against the backdrop of potential mass deportations of illegal immigrants), raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may even need to raise interest rates. However, the data may be more optimistic than it appears.Roach said, "More than 16% of the non-labor force is foreign-born, including undocumented immigrants, so tightening immigration policies may not be as harmful to the economy as some suggest." "Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged."

ChainCatcher news, after the non-farm payroll data was released, Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, down from the previous forecast of 75 basis points. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Gregory Faranello, head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, stated that this is a very reliable report that supports the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to skip this month's meeting and possibly more.At the transition between two administrations, this is also an important figure. The focus now shifts to inflation. With the new administration taking office, higher inflation data and a strong job market will increase calls for interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Financial Times commented on the non-farm data, stating that the U.S. created 256,000 jobs in December, exceeding expectations and supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment figures on Friday that surpassed the 160,000 expected by Reuters analysts and were also higher than the revised 212,000 for November. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, down from 4.2% in November. As the December employment data was released, a sell-off occurred in the global government bond market, partly due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will only make modest interest rate cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payrolls were released, spot gold fell short-term by 13 dollars, currently reported at 2667 dollars/ounce; the dollar index DXY rose more than 50 points in the short term, currently reported at 109.72.

ChainCatcher message, QCP released a market analysis, Bitcoin has had a positive start this week, with prices approaching the $100,000 mark again, but it may face significant selling pressure, as this level experienced considerable selling pressure in December. Bitcoin first broke through this key level on December 5, when funding rates surged.However, this time the funding rates remain at a healthy level, and we do not expect a large-scale short squeeze in the short term. Unlike before, considering that the relevant catalysts from Trump may not emerge until after his inauguration on January 20, it is unlikely that similar market-driving factors will appear at this time. Front-end volatility remains relatively mild, and overall market sentiment leans towards neutral.Due to the recent lack of cryptocurrency-specific catalysts, the market will focus on the U.S. January non-farm payroll report this Friday (January 10). However, expectations for Friday's non-farm payroll report will be further confirmed this week through the JOLTS job openings data on January 7 and the ADP employment data on January 8.

ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that after being severely hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the U.S. rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also increased to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. Overall, the labor market remains in a state of "employment growth momentum weakening, but the job market itself is not weak," which will provide a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December.At the same time, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate cuts in 2025, as decision-makers will become more cautious as interest rates approach neutral levels. One risk in the forecast is the impact of the immigration policy proposed by Trump on the labor market, which currently tends to have a moderate impact, but the possibility of extreme scenarios also needs to be closely monitored. Based on non-farm data, it is believed that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by another 25 basis points this month.

ChainCatcher news, CITIC Securities pointed out that in November 2024, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States slightly exceeded expectations, with healthcare services, leisure and hospitality, and government sectors being the main contributors, while retail was the main drag. After the impact of hurricanes and strike events dissipated, the non-farm employment data for November rebounded as expected. The unemployment rate has risen slightly, indicating a moderate weakening in the U.S. job market, but wage growth remains robust and there has been no significant layoffs by companies, keeping the overall job market healthy.After the release of the non-farm data, the market raised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. We believe that the market's expectations for a "soft landing" of the U.S. economy will last at least until next year before Trump's inauguration, and we maintain our previous judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25bps at the December meeting. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," before the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 72.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27.9%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a research report from China International Capital Corporation indicates that the U.S. non-farm data for October is weak and below expectations, partly affected by hurricanes and strike events. The hurricane forced a large number of people to evacuate and significantly reduced the response rate of business surveys, leading to a sharp decline in employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors, with a surge in the number of people unable to work due to weather conditions. Strikes have also led to a noticeable shrinkage in manufacturing employment. However, these are temporary disturbances, and their impact may reverse in the coming months. Overall, the U.S. labor market is still gradually cooling down, with no signs of rapid deterioration.Considering the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with monetary policy continuing to normalize, but the pace of rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the market previously expected.