ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.Before the non-farm payrolls are released, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the October non-farm payroll data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. October seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 12,000, expected to be 113,000, and the previous value was revised from 254,000 to 223,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, on Thursday local time, U.S. stocks opened lower and the decline widened, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks collectively falling. Despite the "Tech Seven Sisters" having outstanding revenue and profits, the market was disappointed with their performance guidance considering the current stock prices and valuation levels, leading to a broad sell-off. The Nasdaq fell sharply, closing down 2.76%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months, with a cumulative drop of 0.52% in October, ending a two-month rising streak; the Dow Jones closed down 0.90%, with a cumulative drop of 1.34% in October, halting a five-month rising streak; the S&P 500 fell 1.86%, with a cumulative drop of 0.99% in October, also ending a five-month rising streak.The cryptocurrency market fell collectively under the influence of U.S. stocks. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, trading at $69,851, down 3.18%, having risen nearly 10% in October due to increased trading activity related to Trump. Ethereum fell 5.1%, trading at $2,516, with a cumulative drop of 4.28% in October.The U.S. dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, closing down 0.2%, but had a cumulative rise of about 3.1% in October. The dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan weakened, with the yen rising 1%, and a cumulative rise of 5.86% in October. Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated beyond expectations in October, strengthening the European Central Bank's cautious rate cut rationale, with the euro strengthening by 0.26%, but a cumulative drop of 2.25% in October. The British pound fell 0.51% against the dollar, with a cumulative drop of 3.55% in October.International crude oil continued its upward trend due to the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil rising over 2% at one point, and Brent crude closing up 1.87%, with a cumulative rise of about 2.38% in October. The demand for safe-haven assets ahead of the U.S. presidential election has driven gold prices to rise for four consecutive months, continuously hitting new highs, with spot gold having a cumulative rise of about 4.2% in October.Latest data shows that the U.S. PCE inflation in September increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The market is focusing on the U.S. non-farm payroll report for October to be released tonight. Currently, the market generally expects that the number of new non-farm jobs in October will significantly slow down due to temporary unemployment caused by hurricanes and strikes. It is worth mentioning that when the employment report is released this Friday, there will only be four days left until the U.S. presidential election. If the data is extremely weak, it may affect the election and increase market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential safe-haven options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Tim Horan, Chief Investment Officer of the Fixed Income Department at Chilton Trust, stated that strong job creation confirms the Federal Reserve's actions and indicates that a soft landing is imminent.Tim Horan mentioned that the unexpectedly high 254,000 new non-farm jobs in September "allows the Federal Reserve to be absolutely pragmatic," even considering pausing (rate cuts) in November "to digest the election results without having to worry about falling behind the curve." With the job market performing quite well, the Federal Reserve can calmly adjust monetary policy, understanding how elected officials plan to handle government spending.Tim Horan stated that although officials avoid commenting on fiscal policy, "the Federal Reserve has to worry" about the continuously expanding national debt.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payroll data was released, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 89.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.6%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 74.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 23.7%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 1.8%.Before the non-farm data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November was 71.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 28.5%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 44.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 10.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000, expected 140,000, and the previous value was revised from 142,000 to 159,000.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. September non-farm payroll report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.The U.S. September unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for September is expected to be 140,000.

ChainCatcher news, BTC Markets' crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated, "Bitcoin appears to be overbought on the daily chart, with prices starting to pull back after reaching a high of $66,498 last Friday, and momentum has weakened since last week."Lucas pointed out that Ethereum is also facing challenges in regaining momentum, as it lost momentum after breaking above the 50-day simple moving average last week. According to TheBlock's Ethereum price page, Ethereum has dropped 1.69% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $2,626. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on two key macroeconomic events this week: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the National Association for Business Economics on Monday, and the U.S. non-farm payroll report released on Friday. Lucas stated, "Powell's remarks, especially those regarding inflation and interest rates, often influence the market, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Any hawkish tone could further exacerbate risk-off sentiment, leading to today's decline."

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that after the non-farm payroll data was released yesterday, the market's initial reaction was positive, driving risk assets higher. However, as the market began to digest the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, bullish sentiment underwent a sharp reversal. After the non-farm employment data was released, the market expected a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. But as of this morning, the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has fallen to 30%.Even as cryptocurrencies declined, the options market remained relatively calm. There was even a significant amount of put option selling observed throughout the trading session. We noted that as spot prices consolidated over the weekend, front-end volatility is decreasing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the non-farm payroll report could provide a clear signal regarding the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, whether it be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, with market pricing immediately rising to 90%. However, this non-farm payroll report did not adequately address this issue, and currently, the market pricing for a 25 or 50 basis point cut is "split down the middle."Overall, the non-farm data has not deteriorated enough to shift the baseline expectation to a 50 basis point cut, but considering the revised data, it is still insufficient to convincingly dispel speculation about a larger rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, marking the largest increase since June of this year. The expectation was 160,000, and the previous value was revised from 114,000 to 89,000.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos' latest article states that the U.S. employment report for August, set to be released on Friday, will play a larger role than usual in determining the Fed's rate cut this month.At the Fed's September meeting, the debate will focus on whether to start cutting rates by 25 or 50 basis points to prevent undesirable weakness in the labor market. The August hiring and employment report will be key to this decision. A decent employment report could prompt officials to begin a possible series of rate cuts with a 25 basis point reduction. If hiring is weak or the unemployment rate rises, as it did in July, a larger rate cut will be imminent. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Walter Bloomberg, Citigroup analysts stated in a report to clients on Tuesday that they expect the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to increase by 125,000 new jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.Citigroup stated, "The shift from inflation to employment has been completed," indicating that the focus of Federal Reserve policy will shift from inflation indicators to employment data. Citigroup's forecast suggests that an increase of 125,000 jobs, combined with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, would be sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.The report noted that if the unemployment rate slightly decreases to 4.2%, the Federal Reserve may choose to cut rates by 25 basis points, although this would not change Citigroup's expectations of continued slack in the labor market and an economic slowdown. The volatility in the labor market has become as pronounced as inflation data in recent years.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that if next week's non-farm payroll data is weaker than expected, it will confirm the rationale for the U.S. to start cutting interest rates in September. Currently, the probability of a rate cut is 33.0% (25 basis points) and 67% (50 basis points).Given that recent macro news has had little impact on the cryptocurrency market, QCP Capital believes that BTC may maintain a range fluctuation between $58,000 and $65,000 in the short term, as the market is waiting for a positive catalyst to break through this range.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to Jinshi, the U.S. Department of Labor has released the preliminary report for the first quarter of 2024 on non-farm employment and wage surveys (QCEW). New data shows that U.S. job growth is significantly weaker than initially reported. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revision shows a downward adjustment of 818,000 in total non-farm employment in the U.S. as of March 2024, a decrease of 0.5%, marking the largest adjustment since 2009. Previously, some institutions even predicted a reduction of up to 1 million.The revised data may once again raise concerns among markets and economists, who believe that the deterioration of the labor market is occurring much faster than initially expected. This data could intensify worries that the Federal Reserve is falling behind the curve in terms of interest rate cuts. The data released on Wednesday will help influence Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's latest assessment of the labor market, as Powell is scheduled to speak at the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.