ChainCatcher News, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, showing little change. Employment in sectors such as healthcare, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance is on the rise. Retail jobs decreased. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, expected to be 200,000, and the previous value was revised from 12,000 to 36,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch," before the non-farm payroll data is released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 72.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27.9%.

ChainCatcher message, according to Jinshi reports, economists expect that the November non-farm payroll report will show that the U.S. created 200,000 jobs in November, while only 12,000 jobs were added in October due to distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Compared to the 4.1% unemployment rate in October, the unemployment rate in November may slightly rise to 4.2%. Meanwhile, after a 4.0% increase in October, average hourly wages are expected to grow by 3.9% in November. Powell stated at an event this week that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates, as the economy is still growing, the job market is stable, and inflation remains above the 2% target.TD Securities analysts, in anticipation of the November non-farm report, indicated that as the impact of the two hurricanes gradually fades, 75,000 jobs are expected to return to the average in November. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1% to 4.2%, while the month-on-month wage growth may decrease to 0.2% after a significant increase of 0.4% in October.

ChainCatcher news, BNP Paribas analyst Andrew Hespie stated that U.S. employment in November may rebound, but the non-farm payroll report may be ambiguous enough to merely support the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates in December. The forecast for new jobs is expected to reach 225,000, higher than the consensus estimate of 214,000 in a Wall Street Journal survey.Hespie expects the 12,000 new jobs figure suppressed in October due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike to be revised. Uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections may also have somewhat restrained hiring activity in October. Hespie added that adverse weather may have limited the labor force participation rate in October, and the rebound in November could see the unemployment rate rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, ING analyst Chris Turner stated in a report that the market remains cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release in November, with the dollar holding steady.Weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data could disrupt the recent strengthening trend of the dollar since Trump's election victory, although it is unlikely that the dollar will appreciate again for a long time. U.S. employment numbers are expected to rebound after a weak month last time. A growth of fewer than 200,000 jobs may be considered a "bad number," while more than 300,000 is seen as a "good number." ING suggests treating any dollar decline as a buying opportunity. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher News: At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November will be released.As of the time of writing, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is currently 71.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, U.S. stocks fell into anxiety before the non-farm data release on Thursday, with the market cooling off at high levels, and all three major indices closed lower. The Dow Jones fell by 0.55%, the Nasdaq fell by 0.18%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 0.19%. Most large tech stocks rose, with Tesla up over 3%, reaching a two-year high.The cryptocurrency market reached a historic high after Trump announced the nomination of a crypto supporter as the chairman of the U.S. SEC, leading to a significant market surge. Bitcoin's price broke through the milestone of $100,000, peaking around $105,000, then pulled back sharply, crashing over 8% this morning, briefly touching $90,500 before quickly rebounding. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $98,240. The Bitcoin flash crash did not affect altcoins, which generally performed strongly, indicating market confidence in altcoins.In the forex commodities sector, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week exceeded expectations, and the "non-farm eve" dollar index fell about 0.6%, showing a volatile downward trend throughout the day, with most non-U.S. currencies rising. OPEC+’s decision to delay the production increase plan until April next year was in line with expectations, leading to profit-taking sell-offs, and international oil prices ultimately fell by over 0.30%. Gold prices dropped on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields strengthened after the weekly jobless claims data was released, with spot gold dipping nearly 1% at its lowest.On Thursday, economic data showed that the U.S. labor market continues to cool steadily, with the market focusing on Friday's non-farm employment data to understand the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts. Currently, the FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 70.1% probability of a rate cut by the Fed this month. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold commodities, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, the rise of the "Trump trade" in November has become a dominant factor driving global market trends. According to 4E monitoring, last week all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with weekly gains exceeding 1%. In November, the Dow Jones increased by 7.5% and the S&P rose by 5.7%, both marking the largest single-month gains of the year, while the Nasdaq accumulated over 6%. Large tech stocks saw widespread gains, with Tesla rising over 38% in November, achieving its best performance in nearly two years, and Nvidia accumulating a 179.23% increase this year. So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen over 27%, compared to a 24% increase last year, leading to differing views on the outlook for U.S. stocks.The cryptocurrency market performed impressively in November, attracting widespread global attention. Bitcoin's monthly increase exceeded 37%, while Ethereum's rise reached 54%. Altcoins experienced significant gains at the end of the month, with market share continuously expanding; Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 8.15% from the peak of this bull market (61.78% on November 21), while the total market capitalization of altcoins rose nearly 70% in November. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has a significant average increase in December during the second half of the year, combined with the fact that most of Trump's cabinet are cryptocurrency investors, leading to strong bullish sentiment in the market.In the foreign exchange market, the dollar fell by 1.67% last week, ending an eight-week streak of gains, with a cumulative increase of 1.72% in November. The "Trump trade" boosted the dollar in November, hindering gold's upward momentum and triggering a sell-off after the election; spot gold fell about 3.7% in November, marking the largest monthly decline since September of last year. Oil prices continued to decline last week, with a weekly drop of over 3%.In recent weeks, investors have focused on Trump's various economic policies, but at the same time, the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also become quite nuanced. While the market expects an increased probability of a rate cut in December, the space for cuts in 2025 is continuously decreasing. The "near increase, far decrease" phenomenon largely reflects anxiety about the resurgence of inflation under a future Trump administration. This Thursday's speech by Powell and Friday's non-farm payroll data will largely set the tone for year-end rate cuts.eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, precious metals, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.Before the non-farm payrolls are released, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the release of the October non-farm payroll data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. October seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 12,000, expected to be 113,000, and the previous value was revised from 254,000 to 223,000.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, on Thursday local time, U.S. stocks opened lower and the decline widened, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks collectively falling. Despite the "Tech Seven Sisters" having outstanding revenue and profits, the market was disappointed with their performance guidance considering the current stock prices and valuation levels, leading to a broad sell-off. The Nasdaq fell sharply, closing down 2.76%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months, with a cumulative drop of 0.52% in October, ending a two-month rising streak; the Dow Jones closed down 0.90%, with a cumulative drop of 1.34% in October, halting a five-month rising streak; the S&P 500 fell 1.86%, with a cumulative drop of 0.99% in October, also ending a five-month rising streak.The cryptocurrency market fell collectively under the influence of U.S. stocks. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, trading at $69,851, down 3.18%, having risen nearly 10% in October due to increased trading activity related to Trump. Ethereum fell 5.1%, trading at $2,516, with a cumulative drop of 4.28% in October.The U.S. dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, closing down 0.2%, but had a cumulative rise of about 3.1% in October. The dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan weakened, with the yen rising 1%, and a cumulative rise of 5.86% in October. Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated beyond expectations in October, strengthening the European Central Bank's cautious rate cut rationale, with the euro strengthening by 0.26%, but a cumulative drop of 2.25% in October. The British pound fell 0.51% against the dollar, with a cumulative drop of 3.55% in October.International crude oil continued its upward trend due to the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil rising over 2% at one point, and Brent crude closing up 1.87%, with a cumulative rise of about 2.38% in October. The demand for safe-haven assets ahead of the U.S. presidential election has driven gold prices to rise for four consecutive months, continuously hitting new highs, with spot gold having a cumulative rise of about 4.2% in October.Latest data shows that the U.S. PCE inflation in September increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The market is focusing on the U.S. non-farm payroll report for October to be released tonight. Currently, the market generally expects that the number of new non-farm jobs in October will significantly slow down due to temporary unemployment caused by hurricanes and strikes. It is worth mentioning that when the employment report is released this Friday, there will only be four days left until the U.S. presidential election. If the data is extremely weak, it may affect the election and increase market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential safe-haven options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Tim Horan, Chief Investment Officer of the Fixed Income Department at Chilton Trust, stated that strong job creation confirms the Federal Reserve's actions and indicates that a soft landing is imminent.Tim Horan mentioned that the unexpectedly high 254,000 new non-farm jobs in September "allows the Federal Reserve to be absolutely pragmatic," even considering pausing (rate cuts) in November "to digest the election results without having to worry about falling behind the curve." With the job market performing quite well, the Federal Reserve can calmly adjust monetary policy, understanding how elected officials plan to handle government spending.Tim Horan stated that although officials avoid commenting on fiscal policy, "the Federal Reserve has to worry" about the continuously expanding national debt.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payroll data was released, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 89.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.6%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 74.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 23.7%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 1.8%.Before the non-farm data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November was 71.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 28.5%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 44.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 10.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000, expected 140,000, and the previous value was revised from 142,000 to 159,000.

ChainCatcher News, the U.S. September non-farm payroll report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.The U.S. September unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for September is expected to be 140,000.

ChainCatcher news, BTC Markets' crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated, "Bitcoin appears to be overbought on the daily chart, with prices starting to pull back after reaching a high of $66,498 last Friday, and momentum has weakened since last week."Lucas pointed out that Ethereum is also facing challenges in regaining momentum, as it lost momentum after breaking above the 50-day simple moving average last week. According to TheBlock's Ethereum price page, Ethereum has dropped 1.69% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $2,626. Meanwhile, investors are focusing on two key macroeconomic events this week: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the National Association for Business Economics on Monday, and the U.S. non-farm payroll report released on Friday. Lucas stated, "Powell's remarks, especially those regarding inflation and interest rates, often influence the market, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Any hawkish tone could further exacerbate risk-off sentiment, leading to today's decline."