ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a research report from China International Capital Corporation indicates that the U.S. non-farm data for October is weak and below expectations, partly affected by hurricanes and strike events. The hurricane forced a large number of people to evacuate and significantly reduced the response rate of business surveys, leading to a sharp decline in employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors, with a surge in the number of people unable to work due to weather conditions. Strikes have also led to a noticeable shrinkage in manufacturing employment. However, these are temporary disturbances, and their impact may reverse in the coming months. Overall, the U.S. labor market is still gradually cooling down, with no signs of rapid deterioration.Considering the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with monetary policy continuing to normalize, but the pace of rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the market previously expected.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.3%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.Before the non-farm payrolls are released, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, strikes and hurricanes have affected this month's non-farm payroll data, with employment growth unexpectedly declining and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. Although the Federal Reserve may attribute the weakness in today's data to one-off factors, the weakness in today's data suggests that the Fed will continue its easing cycle at next week's meeting. The data is concerning, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has increased.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, BlackRock portfolio manager Rosenberg stated that today's non-farm payroll report contains a lot of noise, including data revisions and the impact of strikes, but today's data will not affect the Fed's recent trajectory.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current rate by December is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 94.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Vanguard's Chief Economist Joe Davis stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, especially if the U.S. non-farm payroll data shows a solid labor market. Tonight's employment report is the last important economic indicator before the Fed makes its decision next week. Despite the impacts of Hurricane Helen and the Boeing strike, the labor market is still expected to maintain a strong foundation.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to 4E monitoring, on Thursday local time, U.S. stocks opened lower and the decline widened, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks collectively falling. Despite the "Tech Seven Sisters" having outstanding revenue and profits, the market was disappointed with their performance guidance considering the current stock prices and valuation levels, leading to a broad sell-off. The Nasdaq fell sharply, closing down 2.76%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months, with a cumulative drop of 0.52% in October, ending a two-month rising streak; the Dow Jones closed down 0.90%, with a cumulative drop of 1.34% in October, halting a five-month rising streak; the S&P 500 fell 1.86%, with a cumulative drop of 0.99% in October, also ending a five-month rising streak.The cryptocurrency market fell collectively under the influence of U.S. stocks. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, trading at $69,851, down 3.18%, having risen nearly 10% in October due to increased trading activity related to Trump. Ethereum fell 5.1%, trading at $2,516, with a cumulative drop of 4.28% in October.The U.S. dollar index fell below 104 on Thursday, closing down 0.2%, but had a cumulative rise of about 3.1% in October. The dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan weakened, with the yen rising 1%, and a cumulative rise of 5.86% in October. Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated beyond expectations in October, strengthening the European Central Bank's cautious rate cut rationale, with the euro strengthening by 0.26%, but a cumulative drop of 2.25% in October. The British pound fell 0.51% against the dollar, with a cumulative drop of 3.55% in October.International crude oil continued its upward trend due to the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil rising over 2% at one point, and Brent crude closing up 1.87%, with a cumulative rise of about 2.38% in October. The demand for safe-haven assets ahead of the U.S. presidential election has driven gold prices to rise for four consecutive months, continuously hitting new highs, with spot gold having a cumulative rise of about 4.2% in October.Latest data shows that the U.S. PCE inflation in September increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The market is focusing on the U.S. non-farm payroll report for October to be released tonight. Currently, the market generally expects that the number of new non-farm jobs in October will significantly slow down due to temporary unemployment caused by hurricanes and strikes. It is worth mentioning that when the employment report is released this Friday, there will only be four days left until the U.S. presidential election. If the data is extremely weak, it may affect the election and increase market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and foreign exchange. Recently, it launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential safe-haven options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets reasonably.

ChainCatcher news, this week is a busy week for economic data. The Fed's favored inflation indicator PCE data, the October non-farm payroll report, and the Q3 earnings reports from Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will determine the market direction at the start of November.According to 4E monitoring, last week the three major U.S. stock indexes had mixed performances. Tesla's stock price surged, pushing the Nasdaq up about 0.9%, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains and just a step away from its historical high. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% last week, and the Dow Jones dropped 2.6%, both ending a six-week winning streak. The cryptocurrency market saw significant declines last week, with Bitcoin priced at $67,668, down 2.18% over the past seven days, and Ethereum at $2,490, nearly 10% lower over the same period.In the forex commodities sector, the dollar index approached a three-month high on Friday, rising 0.8% last week and marking its fourth consecutive week of gains, while political uncertainty led to a 1.9% decline in the yen last week. Due to the instability in the Middle East and the U.S. election, along with global central bank rate cut expectations, spot gold reached a historical high for three consecutive days last week before giving back some gains, but still ended the week up over 0.9%, marking its sixth consecutive week of increases. The tense situation in the Middle East has pushed both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices up over 4% for the week.Recently, the market has increasingly anticipated a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and this week's series of economic data will test investors' bets. On Wednesday, the U.S. Q3 GDP estimate will be released, followed by the September PCE data on Thursday, and the October non-farm report on Friday. With the policy meeting approaching, Fed officials have once again entered their routine blackout period, and the market widely believes there is a high possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut. The influx of data combined with the approaching U.S. election will intensify market volatility. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex, recently launching a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized return of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that there are only 2 weeks left until the U.S. election, which is currently attracting a lot of attention. In the prediction market, Trump has begun to expand his lead over Harris, while polls in key swing states are currently leaning towards the Republican Party. The market is currently pricing in the possibility of Trump being elected president. Discussions about increased tariffs and tax cuts have led to a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Given Trump's more crypto-friendly stance, it is not surprising that Bitcoin's trading price has risen.The S&P 500 index continues to set new historical highs, and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has once again surpassed 4%. Driven by an unprecedented volume of open contracts on exchanges, Bitcoin has moved towards $69,000. The total open contract volume for exchange futures currently stands at $40.5 billion. The market is currently expecting a 1.5 rate cut in 2024. A stronger-than-expected labor market and the increased likelihood of Trump being elected president have rekindled hopes that U.S. economic growth will remain strong. With uncertainty in the labor market still present, all eyes are on the non-farm payroll report (NFP) set to be released next Friday. As the last NFP report before the next Federal Reserve meeting, it will play a key role in shaping market expectations for the Fed's next interest rate actions. Ahead of the employment data release and the election, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain well-supported with upside potential.

ChainCatcher message, QCP Capital stated in an official post that this week there was a conflict between Iran and Israel, and the market expects Israel's retaliation to be more severe, targeting key infrastructures such as Iran's nuclear facilities or oil facilities. Additionally, the non-farm data reflects a strong labor market, coupled with the possibility of further interest rate cuts later this year, which has boosted risk assets, allowing BTC to recover to $62,000.As we enter the fourth quarter, options market activity continues to grow, with increasing demand for December call options, highlighting the market's bullish outlook for the end of the year. Although QCP Capital still believes that macro data supports the "bullish October" (Uptober) view, geopolitical risks remain the biggest hidden danger before the U.S. elections. QCP Capital is more inclined to lock in yields at current levels, securing profits and preparing for a year-end rally.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payroll data was released, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 89.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.6%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 74.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 23.7%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 1.8%.Before the non-farm data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November was 71.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 28.5%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 44.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 10.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the non-farm payroll data for September shows that the U.S. job market added 254,000 jobs last month, and U.S. stock index futures rose. The S&P 500 futures increased by 0.7%, higher than the approximately 0.3% before the data was released. Traders are weighing the positive signals of economic strength in the report, as well as the possibility that strong job growth may lead the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher message, the interest rate strategist at Deutsche Bank stated that as long as the non-farm data generally aligns with a soft landing, the Federal Reserve does not seem to face pressure to cut rates by another 50 basis points. The strong demand for safe-haven assets due to recent geopolitical tensions has also subsided.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the New Zealand dollar weakened against the US dollar in the Asian market. US President Biden said on Wednesday that the G7 is coordinating a response to Iran's attacks on Israel, which includes implementing new sanctions on Tehran.Analysts at Malaysia Bank stated in a foreign exchange research and strategy report that investors continue to seek refuge in the dollar, noting that they may be affected by sanctions. The analysts mentioned that better-than-expected US ADP data also boosted the dollar.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that after the non-farm payroll data was released yesterday, the market's initial reaction was positive, driving risk assets higher. However, as the market began to digest the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, bullish sentiment underwent a sharp reversal. After the non-farm employment data was released, the market expected a 55% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. But as of this morning, the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has fallen to 30%.Even as cryptocurrencies declined, the options market remained relatively calm. There was even a significant amount of put option selling observed throughout the trading session. We noted that as spot prices consolidated over the weekend, front-end volatility is decreasing.

ChainCatcher news, according to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa's monitoring, a smart money address took advantage of a slight positive in the U.S. non-farm payroll data in the past 20 minutes, clearing 5,263 ETH (approximately 12.63 million USD) at an average price of 2,340 USD during the rebound trend, netting a profit of 267,000 USD.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that the non-farm payroll report could provide a clear signal regarding the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, whether it be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, with market pricing immediately rising to 90%. However, this non-farm payroll report did not adequately address this issue, and currently, the market pricing for a 25 or 50 basis point cut is "split down the middle."Overall, the non-farm data has not deteriorated enough to shift the baseline expectation to a 50 basis point cut, but considering the revised data, it is still insufficient to convincingly dispel speculation about a larger rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, BRN analyst Valentin Fournier stated that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are experiencing significant capital outflows, with a total outflow of $900 million over the past week. The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll employment report may not boost market sentiment, although increased volatility could create opportunities for a trend reversal.

ChainCatcher news, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos' latest article states that the U.S. employment report for August, set to be released on Friday, will play a larger role than usual in determining the Fed's rate cut this month.At the Fed's September meeting, the debate will focus on whether to start cutting rates by 25 or 50 basis points to prevent undesirable weakness in the labor market. The August hiring and employment report will be key to this decision. A decent employment report could prompt officials to begin a possible series of rate cuts with a 25 basis point reduction. If hiring is weak or the unemployment rate rises, as it did in July, a larger rate cut will be imminent. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the number of new jobs added by U.S. companies last month was the lowest since early 2021, further proving that the labor market is shifting to low-speed growth. ADP data shows that private sector employment increased by 99,000 in August, with last month's increase revised down. The latest data is below all expectations.ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said, "After experiencing two years of significant growth, the downturn in the job market has caused hiring rates to fall below normal levels. Wage growth, which slowed significantly after the pandemic, is now stabilizing." Companies are scaling back hiring to cope with high costs and high interest rates. The latest data adds evidence of a slowdown in labor demand, and Federal Reserve officials have stated that they are now more concerned about risks in the labor market compared to inflation. As price pressures have largely receded from the pandemic peak, the market expects policymakers to begin cutting interest rates this month.Another report released on Thursday showed that as of August, U.S. companies' hiring plans have decreased by 41% compared to the same eight months in 2023. Announced layoff plans fell by 3.7%.