ChainCatcher news, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi stated that he believes the risk of an economic recession is "uncomfortably high" as the market reacts to Trump's tariff agenda.Zandi said, "The risk of recession is uncomfortably high and is rising." "I think the probability is less than 50%, but it really depends on the president and what he does here." Zandi mentioned that if Trump continues to push his tariff plan, including reciprocal tariffs on other countries, and these tariffs last for three to five months, it would be enough to "push the economy into recession." "It would be a very strange recession, right?" "I mean, it's a designed recession," Zandi remarked.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs strategist Oppenheimer stated that European and other overseas stock markets may continue to outperform the U.S. stock market, and they reiterated their recommendation to diversify investments into assets outside the U.S. The average correlation between stock markets in different countries has fallen to its lowest level since the 1990s. However, they noted that any further downward revision of U.S. economic growth expectations could also hurt overseas stock markets.If the main reason for a further pullback in U.S. stocks is concerns about economic growth, rather than the dominant tech stocks, then historical performance shows that other markets are likely to decline as well.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Paul Eitelman, Chief Investment Strategist for North America at Russell Investments, stated that due to the robust U.S. economy, the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to occur before May or June."We believe that the U.S. economic fundamentals are solid amid extreme uncertainty in policies faced by households, businesses, investors, and the Federal Reserve." Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has clearly indicated that he will wait for more clear information before cutting rates again, "which sets the stage for the next rate cut in May or June." Eitelman noted that macro fundamentals show resilient economic growth and easing inflation, supporting the baseline scenario of two to three rate cuts later this year.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve mouthpiece Nick Timiraos published an article in the Wall Street Journal stating that over the past year, U.S. economic policymakers have focused on achieving a so-called soft landing, which means reducing inflation without causing an economic recession. Now, a group of "new pilots" is considering changing course, and they themselves admit that this could lead the economy toward a hard landing.In recent days, President Trump and his senior advisors have shown indifference to the rising risks of trade uncertainty hampering private sector investment. They believe that a detox may be needed in terms of spending and hiring, that falling stock values are not concerning, and that inflation may rise in the short term. Some analysts warn that Trump's messaging may reflect a strategic effort to improve the country's bargaining position with trade partners, leaving bond investors and the Federal Reserve stunned, thereby maintaining a tendency to cut interest rates.Trump's impulsive behavior has prompted European authorities to take measures to increase economic stimulus and defense spending. Analysts say that the situation over the past two weeks indicates that Trump is unlikely to change course due to a market downturn, which will help reset Wall Street's expectations. Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Piper Sandler, said: "Everything he is doing tells us he is not joking. He fundamentally believes this on tariffs."

ChainCatcher message, as concerns about a U.S. economic recession grow, most safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the yen rose in early Asian trading.Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at the National Australia Bank, said: "Headlines about rising recession risks (from low levels) are everywhere. It's no surprise that U.S. Treasury yields are falling." Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased, with the market pricing a cut of 81.6 basis points by the end of 2025, up from 70.7 basis points last Friday.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, a research report from China International Capital Corporation states that the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs in February, falling short of the market expectation of 170,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%, partly influenced by government layoffs and retail strikes. Looking ahead, since employment is a lagging indicator, we may see further negative impacts from government layoffs in the coming months.Government spending cuts have a "multiplier effect," and the reduction of federal employees may spread to non-government sector employment. Those laid off will need to "re-employ," which will also intensify competition in the labor market and increase the difficulty of finding jobs in the future. We reiterate our previous view that, in the context of tariffs and government spending cuts, attention should be paid to the downside risks of the U.S. economy. Until headwinds dissipate or genuinely business-friendly policies (such as tax cuts, deregulation, and interest rate cuts) are implemented, we remain cautious about the U.S. economy.

ChainCatcher News, President Trump has refused to rule out the possibility of the U.S. economy shrinking and entering a recession this year. He stated that his comprehensive economic agenda may cause short-term turbulence, but he believes it will drive future prosperity.In an interview on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures, Trump was asked if he expected a recession this year, to which he replied, "I hate to predict such things. There is a transition period because what we are doing is very big. We are bringing wealth back to America, and that is a big deal."U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also indicated last week that the U.S. economy might experience a tough period during this economic transformation. However, Commerce Secretary Ross ruled out the possibility of an economic downturn in a television address last Sunday. He stated on NBC's Meet the Press, "There will be no recession in the U.S. The U.S. economy has never been in recession since the pandemic began in 2020."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, U.S. President Trump has initiated actions to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi believes that the U.S. economy may fall into stagflation.Recent data reflects that U.S. consumers and businesses are already worried about the economic outlook and are reducing spending. This effect will lead to a significant slowdown in the economy, while the impact of tariffs will cause high inflation, thus the U.S. economy may fall into stagflation. If true, this would be the first time the U.S. has experienced stagflation in 50 years.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model shows that the U.S. economy may contract by 2.8% in the first quarter. If true, this would be the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. In the face of stagflation, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, similar to former Fed Chairman Volcker's aggressive rate hikes in the early 1980s, sacrificing the economy to curb inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession is very low.

ChainCatcher message, former Coinbase CTO Balaji tweeted that tariffs may be detrimental to the U.S. economy, but beneficial for cryptocurrency. He explained:Why are tariffs detrimental to the U.S. economy? Production cannot be increased in a short time, but prices can rise quickly. Rather than rebuilding production, the U.S. relies more on the gains from currency issuance than on manufacturing profits.Why are tariffs beneficial for cryptocurrency? Global capital will shift to on-chain, even as nationalism and socialism are rising offline. The only truly enforceable cross-border contracts in the future will be smart contracts. While a nation's economic commitments may be unreliable, the mathematical guarantees of cryptography are trustworthy.

ChainCatcher news, according to TheMinerMag, a recent report released by the Perryman Group shows that Bitcoin mining has created over 31,000 jobs for the U.S. economy, generating more than $4.1 billion in total output annually. The U.S. accounts for about 40% of the global Bitcoin hash rate.The report emphasizes that Texas is the biggest beneficiary of Bitcoin mining, with estimated annual economic activity of $1.7 billion, creating over 12,200 jobs. Georgia has an annual total output of $316.8 million, while New York contributes $225.9 million.It is reported that the report was commissioned by the industry nonprofit Texas Blockchain Council and the Digital Chamber of Commerce.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace. Boosted by resilient consumer spending, GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 2.5%. Investment in equipment and intangible assets seems to have declined in the fourth quarter, but overall performance for the year remains strong.After experiencing a slowdown in the middle of last year, activity in the real estate sector appears to have stabilized. In terms of the labor market, conditions remain solid and seem to have settled. Over the past four months, the average monthly job addition has been 189,000. Following an earlier rise, the unemployment rate has remained stable since the middle of last year, standing at 4% in January, still at a low level.Nominal wage growth has slowed over the past year, and the gap between job openings and workers has narrowed. Overall, a range of broad indicators suggests that labor market conditions are roughly balanced. The labor market is not a significant source of inflationary pressure.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the overall U.S. economy is strong, and the inflation rate is close to the 2% target, but still slightly elevated.If the economy remains strong and inflation does not approach 2%, a cautious policy can be maintained for a longer period.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Hamak delivered a speech stating that the current economic situation is good, and the job market remains robust.He emphasized that the current inflation risk is tilted to the upside, and it is still unclear whether inflation will continue to decline to 2%. The current monetary policy is only "moderately restrictive," and controlling the inflation rate within the target range is crucial for the Federal Reserve.Hamak also stated that the Federal Reserve is fully prepared to respond to economic changes. While reducing inflation, the Federal Reserve faces the challenge of maintaining a healthy job market.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan stated that the U.S. economy faces multiple policy risks brought by the proposals of the elected President Trump. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news reports that the U.S. market reacted enthusiastically to Trump's victory, but this trade has since eased.Economist Phil Suttle proposed another scenario. His outlook indicates that the more aggressively Trump implements policies such as deportation and tariffs, the greater the likelihood that the U.S. will fall into stagflation panic in the coming years. If immigration is cut off and workers are deported, the labor force may lose all growth momentum and even shrink.Suttle estimates that, combined with tariffs, economic growth could stagnate or even reverse in 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, labor shortages and tariffs could drive up prices, potentially pushing inflation rates above 3% annually. Suttle believes that Trump's more radical policies could exacerbate these effects.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, The Leuthold Group's Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen stated in his blog that although policy officials and investors seem increasingly concerned about the possibility of overheating economic growth, he believes that an unexpected economic slowdown is more likely to occur in 2025, which could ultimately lead to a stock market correction of at least 10%.Jim Paulsen pointed out that based on historical data since 2003, fluctuations in bond yields typically lead to unexpected economic outcomes; a decline in yields indicates that the economy will improve in three months, and vice versa. In his view, bond yields hovering around 4.6% (which reached 4.63% last week) suggest that the economic surprise index will slow to -35 in the first quarter, and GDP will also slow down.Jim Paulsen stated that if the economic unexpected slowdown exacerbates concerns, the stock market may pause its upward trend, even if it is not a correction of 10% to 15%.

ChainCatcher news, investment giant Pimco's Chief Investment Officer stated that Trump's economic plan could "add fuel to the fire" for the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to stop cutting interest rates, thereby reversing the rise of U.S. stocks after Trump's victory. (Jin Ten)