ChainCatcher news, investment giant Pimco's Chief Investment Officer stated that Trump's economic plan could "add fuel to the fire" for the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to stop cutting interest rates, thereby reversing the rise of U.S. stocks after Trump's victory. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The U.S. economy is performing better than any of its global peers.

ChainCatcher news, Citigroup analysts stated that elections often have a significant impact on market trends before voting, but traders seem to be more focused on other matters this year.Analysts pointed out that several market indicators that typically flash before U.S. elections are noticeably calm this year, suggesting that concerns about the election's impact on the market may be less than in previous years. They believe that traders are not focused on the election, but rather on the U.S. economy and earnings season.Analysts indicated that the strong performance of U.S. stocks in the weeks leading up to the election may be driven by the robust state of the U.S. economy, rather than investors building positions in the "Trump trade" or "Harris trade."However, analysts stated that, as in previous years, the stock market is likely to rebound after the election. They noted that due to the latest earnings season where most companies reported solid performances, the current market positioning makes it very likely that the stock market will rebound after the voting on November 5 and may potentially climb to new highs in the new year.

ChainCatcher news, a report from CICC states that the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate for the United States in Q3 2024 is 2.8%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3.0%, and a slight decline from 3.0% in Q2, but still a remarkable result. In terms of components, personal consumption expenditures are strong, corporate equipment investment is expanding, and exports and government spending are accelerating, indicating that the U.S. economic growth remains healthy. Relatively weaker are real estate investment and construction investment, showing that high interest rates are still having a suppressive effect.In addition, inflation further declined in Q3, suggesting that the U.S. economy is heading towards a soft landing. We believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to make significant rate cuts for now, expecting a 25 basis point cut next week, while whether to skip a rate cut in December will depend on inflation developments.

ChainCatcher news indicates that, according to market forecasts, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Wednesday will show that the seasonally and inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a strong annualized rate of 3% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous value. If this expectation comes true, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the U.S. economy.At the same time, the market also expects the report to show that the core PCE price index for the third quarter will significantly slow down to 2.1% from the previous value of 2.8%, approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index included in the GDP estimate as its primary inflation indicator.Another driving factor for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is inflation, with the second quarter core PCE price index likely getting closer to the Fed's target. Citigroup expects U.S. GDP growth to be below expectations at only 2.6%, but anticipates that the inflation indicator for the quarter will reach the 2% target, a figure that may help solidify the Fed officials' decision to only cut rates by 25 basis points next week. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, UBS predicts that the U.S. economy will experience a "no landing" scenario, where economic growth continues and inflation remains stable, breaking the recession forecast. Due to stronger-than-expected employment data and GDP growth, UBS expects the elections to trigger market volatility, but as the Federal Reserve moves towards rate cuts, economic momentum and the trend of artificial intelligence will support a rise in the stock market.

ChainCatcher News: The U.S. Department of Commerce announced yesterday that September retail sales exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, highlighting the resilience of U.S. consumer spending, which continues to provide strong momentum for the U.S. economy. A series of robust economic data recently has reinforced market expectations for only a 25 basis point rate cut.According to 4E monitoring, after the data release, U.S. stocks opened higher but then fell, with the S&P reaching a new intraday high before turning down, and the Nasdaq also nearly erasing its early gains. However, the Dow Jones reached new intraday and closing highs, marking two consecutive days of gains. By the close, the S&P 500 was down 0.02%, the Nasdaq was up 0.04%, and the Dow was up 0.37%. The cryptocurrency market followed U.S. stocks with slight fluctuations; at the time of writing, Bitcoin was at 67,972, up 0.8%, and Ethereum was at 2,632, up 0.43%.In the forex and commodities sector, positive economic data pushed the U.S. dollar index to an 11-week high, rebounding 3.34% since October. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates on Thursday, causing the euro to decline for four consecutive days to an 11-week low. Last week, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased, indicating strong demand, which led to a rise of about 0.40% in international oil prices, halting a four-day decline and moving away from two-week lows. Spot gold benefited from uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections and expectations of more monetary policy easing, approaching 2,700 dollars, setting a new historical high, with an increase of over 30% this year.Recent data shows that retail sales continue to grow, with better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, a stronger-than-expected unemployment rate, and a recent cooling trend in initial jobless claims. Coupled with the steady decline in U.S. inflation and the upward revision of long-term GDP growth rates beyond expectations, this provides strong support for the "soft landing" logic of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, a new round of global rate cuts is accelerating, significantly improving financial market sentiment and generally increasing investors' risk appetite. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, stock indices, commodities like gold, and forex. It recently launched a USDT stablecoin financial product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with potential hedging options. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and to allocate assets wisely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan believes that if the United States does not balance its spending with economic growth, it will regret it. If this issue is not addressed, the U.S. may lose its "gold standard" status in the economy.He also stated that the debt issue is not something that can be handled in the first week of a new government taking office, nor is it a problem that the old government can continue to govern------it is a discipline issue that spans time.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Logan stated that recent inflation data is "very welcome"; a reduction in policy restrictions can also help cool inflation; the U.S. economy remains strong and stable; gradually adjusting policies towards a neutral interest rate is of significant importance; the banking sector must continue to diversify funding sources; the Federal Reserve's discount window is one of the important sources of bank financing.

ChainCatcher news, 10x Research pointed out in its market analysis that while most people's attention is focused on U.S. employment data, the ISM Manufacturing Index has triggered a 10% market adjustment in the first week of each of the past three months. However, employment data plays a key role in shaping market sentiment. Weak employment data has heightened concerns about an economic recession and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, while stronger employment data has reassured investors that the U.S. economy is more resilient than the ISM Manufacturing Index suggests.The ISM index may accurately reflect economic conditions. However, the market has been interpreting employment data through the lens of lower inflation, which is expected to give the Federal Reserve more room for aggressive action. In July of this year, we emphasized that the ISM could signal the end of the Bitcoin cycle, and the ISM data released at 10 AM Eastern Time on October 1st will be crucial for assessing the U.S. economic outlook.

ChainCatcher message, CICC research report points out that, from the perspective of the interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve has taken a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points than we expected. The monetary policy statement indicates that recent inflation data has given decision-makers more confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. The Fed's actions suggest that its reaction function has completely shifted from focusing on inflation to focusing on employment.We see this as a signal that the Fed has a low tolerance for rising unemployment rates, and officials do not want to risk undermining the favorable prospect of a "soft landing." Based on Powell's statements, we believe that any unemployment rate exceeding 4.4% in the future could trigger further rate cuts. This also indicates that the Fed will maintain a "dovish" stance until employment market data stabilizes. Looking ahead, the likelihood of a soft landing for the economy in the short term will further increase due to the Fed's more significant rate cuts.

ChainCatcher News: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the U.S. economy is in good shape, and the cooler employment data in recent months indicates that the economy is undergoing a soft landing rather than a recession. Yellen mentioned that there have been no significant layoffs in the U.S., and the economy is experiencing a "deep recovery."

ChainCatcher news, according to Bitcoin.com, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated that a recession remains the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy, insisting that the probability of a "soft landing" is only 35% to 40%.In an interview with CNBC, Jamie Dimon emphasized the ongoing uncertainty facing the market, pointing out geopolitical issues, housing, deficits, spending, quantitative tightening, and elections, all of which can cause market panic. Despite his cautious stance, he acknowledged that the economy is performing better than expected.

ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan now believes that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession by the end of this year is 35%, up from 25% at the beginning of last month.Economists at JPMorgan, led by Bruce Kasman, wrote in a report to clients on Wednesday that U.S. data "suggests that labor demand is weakening more sharply than expected, with early signs of layoffs emerging." The team maintains a 45% probability of a recession occurring by the second half of 2025.Kasman and his colleagues wrote, "We have moderately raised our assessment of recession risks, while the adjustment to our interest rate outlook is more significant."JPMorgan now believes that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve and other central banks keeping interest rates high for an extended period is only 30%, down from a predicted 50% two months ago. As inflation pressures in the U.S. decline, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen pointed out that there have been some positive signs in the cryptocurrency market recently, including institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs and the BTC price withstanding the impact of Mt. Gox's return of billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin.At the same time, 10x Research predicts that the recent decline in Bitcoin prices may just be the beginning of a larger drop, as the weak ISM report has impacted risk assets. Historically, when the ISM index peaks, Bitcoin tends to experience significant pullbacks (Note: The full English name of the ISM index is "Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index," which is an important data point released by the Institute for Supply Management that significantly reflects the prosperity of the U.S. economy and the trend of the U.S. dollar).10x Research noted that if the stock market follows the downward trend of the ISM index and even begins to anticipate an impending economic recession, the stock market could see significant declines in the coming quarters, which would also have a major negative impact on Bitcoin. If this occurs, Bitcoin prices could potentially return to the $50,000 level or even decline further.