Bitwise

Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Needs to Meet Three Conditions to Break $80,000

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the three conditions necessary for Bitcoin to rebound to over $80,000 in the fourth quarter are the results of the U.S. elections, the economic situation, and no major surprises in the crypto industry. However, to "fully rise" to $100,000 in just a few months, a broader cryptocurrency rebound is needed to boost market sentiment. By the end of 2023, Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will double from its then price of $42,400, reaching over $80,000 by the end of this year, with the approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF and Bitcoin's fourth halving event as catalysts.In a memo to clients on Wednesday, Hougan maintained this prediction, stating that the ideal election outcome is to avoid a complete Democratic victory. He believes that a Republican win would be beneficial for the crypto industry, but there are mixed attitudes towards cryptocurrencies within the Democratic Party. Current prediction markets show a 53% chance of Trump winning. Economically, Hougan suggests that two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points are needed before the end of the year, along with additional fiscal stimulus from China. He emphasized that people's trust in Bitcoin stems from distrust in government monetary management. Additionally, the crypto industry needs to remain stable, avoiding major hacks, lawsuits, or sudden influxes of locked coins into the market.

Bitwise Strategy Chief: BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Will Trigger Explosive Bitcoin Surge

ChainCatcher news, Bitwise Alpha strategy head Jeff Park posted on the X platform stating that "the SEC's approval of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF options trading" will lead to an explosive rise in Bitcoin. Jeff Park believes that the market is about to witness the most incredible "volatility" in financial history, which deserves further explanation. Contributing factors include several characteristics of Bitcoin, the nature of the regulated options market, and the powerful combination of the two.He believes that "the SEC's approval of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF options trading" marks the greatest advancement that the cryptocurrency market could achieve. The nominal value of Bitcoin will be partially "banked" for the first time through ETF options. While the limited non-custodial supply of Bitcoin is its greatest advantage, it also serves as a drag, limiting the ability to create synthetic leverage. Now, Bitcoin will have a regulated market for the first time, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission protecting clearing members from counterparty risk. This means that Bitcoin's synthetic nominal exposure can grow exponentially.Additionally, Bitcoin has unique volatility characteristics; when the spot price rises, volatility also increases, which means that the delta increases at a faster rate. When short gamma traders hedge (during gamma squeezes, Bitcoin's situation can become explosively recursive. Short sellers will be forced to continue buying at higher prices, and more buying will lead to more increases). Negative vanna gamma squeezes can cause Bitcoin prices to soar like a rocket.In summary, the Bitcoin ETF options market is the first time the financial world has seen regulated leverage applied to a truly supply-constrained permanent commodity. Things could get crazy, crazy enough that the regulated market might be forced to shut down. But the extraordinary aspect of Bitcoin is that there will always be a parallel, decentralized market that cannot be shut down, unlike stocks.
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