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Inflation data for October in the United States sends multiple warning signals. The data shows that the core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month; the overall CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, also above expectations. The impact of rising energy prices is spreading to areas such as food and transportation, and service inflation remains robust, further complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation.Specifically, food prices in the U.S. rose by 0.5% month-on-month in October, with grocery prices recording the largest monthly increase since April; urban transportation service prices saw the largest monthly increase since 2020, and prices for airline tickets and delivery services also increased. Additionally, service prices excluding energy and housing rents rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while owners' equivalent rent increased by 0.3%.AI investments are bringing new cost pressures. Over the past three months, the annualized price increase for computers and peripheral devices in the U.S. reached 25%, and electricity prices rose by 0.9% month-on-month in October, marking the largest increase in six months. Morgan Stanley estimates that AI-related factors have contributed about 6 basis points to the core CPI this year, with the current impact still relatively limited, but as data center investments expand, related pressures may rise further.In terms of monetary policy, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee described the latest inflation data as approaching an alarming level. Fed Governor Waller previously stated that if the core CPI month-on-month increase reaches 0.3% or higher, the December meeting should consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points. Goldman Sachs has included a forecast for an additional 25 basis point increase in March 2027, expecting that the target range for the federal funds rate will rise to 4.25% to 4.50%. However, some economists warn that there is a lag in the transmission of energy prices, and over-reliance on current data may lead to excessive tightening of monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike combined with the central bank's increase of the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio to 6% has led several banks to raise their USD fixed deposit rates again, with some products exceeding 4%.In October, the average benchmark performance of USD wealth management reached 4.1%. The interest rates of foreign banks have risen significantly, while the listed rates of state-owned banks remain around 2.8%, resulting in an inverted yield curve.

According to Cointelegraph, the market believes there is a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. CME FedWatch data shows a 90.8% probability of a 25 basis point increase and a 9.2% probability of a 50 basis point increase. The total of these two probabilities adds up to 100%, corresponding to the market's pricing outcome for the interest rate hike in December.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX's "Expert Lecture" Episode 8 will officially air today at 19:00 (UTC+8). This episode is themed "Global Asset Revaluation: New Wealth Logic in the Era of High Interest Rates," featuring Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud, who will conduct an in-depth sharing on "Asset Game in the Era of High Interest Rates: Which is More Attractive, U.S. Treasuries, Gold, or BTC?"At that time, Cloud will analyze the investment logic, risk-return characteristics, and future trends of U.S. Treasuries, Gold, and BTC, in conjunction with the global macroeconomic situation, dollar interest rate trends, and cryptocurrency market dynamics. He will explore market opportunities and asset allocation strategies under the changing logic of global asset pricing, providing investors with multi-dimensional market observations and decision-making references.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that within less than a month, the open interest of BTC on the Binance platform has decreased from 10.6 billion dollars to 8.8 billion dollars, a drop of 17%. Meanwhile, its 180-day moving average has risen from 8.4 billion dollars to 8.6 billion dollars. As the open interest falls below the moving average, new signals of deleveraging are emerging in the market. In a bull market phase, this signal typically appears when market corrections are nearing their end, reflecting that traders are reducing their leveraged exposure, which includes both voluntary liquidations and forced liquidations due to insufficient margin.Aside from the fact that this process may last for months in a bear market, a similar signal last appeared in June of this year when the BTC price was below 60,000 dollars, subsequently rebounding to above 87,000 dollars, with an increase of over 45%. Currently, as the open interest declines, the market is also experiencing large-scale liquidations. Low volatility seems to encourage some traders to take on higher risks to compensate for the insufficient returns brought about by the narrowing price fluctuations, making them more susceptible to market reversal shocks. Over the past three months, the monthly liquidation scale on Binance has reached new highs since 2021: over 1.4 billion dollars in August, 1.1 billion dollars in September, and 1.3 billion dollars in October. This trend appears to continue into November, with the liquidation scale exceeding 520 million dollars before the end of the first half of this month.These data highlight the potential losses that leveraged trading can bring to investors. In a market environment with low volatility and shrinking trading volume, blindly increasing risk exposure due to a lack of patience can quickly lead to heavy costs. However, the deleveraging phase also helps improve the market environment. Reducing leveraged positions can lower the risk of cascading liquidations, allowing spot demand to play a greater role in market pricing, thereby helping Bitcoin establish a more robust market structure.

According to monitoring by Mlm on chain, Nvidia (NVDA) has currently become the largest HIP-3 market by open contract size on Hyperliquid, and it is the fourth largest market on the platform, only behind BTC, ETH, and HYPE. Its open contract size has reached 535 million dollars, growing 5.8 times in the past 7 days, which is 2.4 times the previous peak of 227 million dollars in June of this year.Currently, the NVDA market's daily trading volume has surpassed 1 billion dollars for the first time. The largest single position is a short position of 348,000 shares of NVDA held by Jump, valued at approximately 56 million dollars, which is a non-directional position. The largest directional position is a long position of 191,000 shares of NVDA, valued at approximately 30.7 million dollars, which has been gradually built up over the past 24 hours, with an average entry price of 174.43 dollars, currently showing an unrealized loss of about 2.6 million dollars.The market has a total of 9,517 trading wallets, of which 83% hold long positions; market makers account for 70% of the short open contract size. The average entry price for longs is currently 169.55 dollars, while the mark price is 160.66 dollars, which is about 5.2% lower than the average entry price. The total unrealized losses for all NVDA long positions have reached 14.6 million dollars.

Reports suggest that the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the unwinding of yen carry trades may impact Bitcoin.

Tavi Costa, founder and CEO of Azuria Capital, stated that Bitcoin is currently "severely undervalued," and many previous supporters have chosen to give up. He expects that as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle comes to an end, both Bitcoin and silver will experience "dramatic volatility."Costa believes that the next decade will be dominated by two macro forces: a weakening dollar and suppressed yields. Against this backdrop, silver and mining stocks have become his favorite hard asset trading targets, and he claims that mining stocks appear to be a macro arbitrage opportunity.He also mentioned that gold has experienced about a 30% pullback during a long-term bull market, and the current situation of silver and Bitcoin is "very similar"; at the same time, he believes that there is no AI revolution without metals, and high-grade silver mines cannot be created out of thin air.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos, known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," wrote that after the third consecutive strong inflation report was released, a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is almost certain. Market focus is shifting to the magnitude of the rate hike and the subsequent pace, including a 25 basis point hike at each meeting, a one-time hike of 50 basis points, or signaling multiple consecutive hikes of 25 basis points.Nick Timiraos pointed out that the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting from December 8 to 9, and the bigger question is whether this rate hike is a moderate adjustment envisioned by several officials, with two to three more hikes, or the beginning of a sustained effort to suppress the economy and lower inflation.Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who supported maintaining interest rates last week, stated that if the core price increase in October reaches about 0.3% month-over-month, the Federal Reserve should consider a 50 basis point hike in December, and the latest published data happens to align with this scenario. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan also hinted after the data release that, given the current inflation pressures, it may be necessary to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. The relevant tactical choices are usually decided by the Federal Reserve Chair.

According to Bitcoin.com News, former White House cryptocurrency advisor Patrick Witt stated that President Trump still intends to purchase Bitcoin for the United States' strategic Bitcoin reserve, but public market purchases face serious legal issues. Witt mentioned in the What Bitcoin Did podcast that the president is interested in this, and there have been many discussions related to it. An executive order from March 2025 established the reserve, gathering Bitcoin seized by the government, and instructed the Treasury and Commerce Departments to seek "budget-neutral" acquisition strategies, but no such strategies have been made public, nor has any public market purchase been announced.Witt indicated that due to Congress controlling federal spending, the "legitimacy" of direct public market purchases is in doubt. He also noted that concerns over purchases prompted Congress to include provisions in the National Defense Authorization Act prohibiting such actions, and he is working to push for permission and authorization for it. Witt pointed out that making the reserve permanent is more difficult, as passing a standalone bill in a divided Congress would be extremely challenging, and without legislation, the reserve would rely on executive orders, which future presidents could revoke.

Goldman Sachs stated on Tuesday that after the inflation data in October exceeded expectations, marking the third consecutive month of higher-than-expected inflation, the firm expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by an additional 25 basis points in March 2027.

Federal Reserve Chairman Paulson stated that gradual interest rate hikes provide time for the economy to adjust. CPI data shows that inflation remains a problem, and he supports the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decisions.

After the October CPI data exceeded expectations, Deutsche Bank included a rate hike in its forecast for January next year. Currently, the bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, January, and March, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.50% to 4.75%.Analysts stated that considering the recent hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, a 50 basis point hike in December is also a possibility, but this is still not part of the bank's baseline forecast scenario. In addition, Deutsche Bank raised its neutral rate expectations to 3.75% to 4.00%, indicating that it believes rates will remain elevated for a longer period.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this winter at a faster pace than so far. The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates at least two more times, each by 25 basis points.Logan indicated that the Federal Reserve's policy rate is at least 50 basis points below a moderately restrictive level.

Overall and core inflation rates in the U.S. for October exceeded expectations, which may keep the Federal Reserve on track for interest rate hikes next month. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy rose by 0.3% from the previous month. Overall prices increased by 0.4%. Due to the interruption in data collection during the government shutdown last October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release year-on-year changes.The report shows that price pressures continue to mount ahead of this month's midterm elections, with the Democratic Party focusing primarily on the cost of living to regain control of both houses of Congress. This year, the war in Iran, tariffs, and the boom in data centers have all fueled inflation. This is the last CPI report that Federal Reserve officials will see before the policy meeting on December 8-9. Investors expect that they will raise interest rates at this meeting to address inflation.Before the release, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if core CPI rises by 0.3% or more, the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates by 50 basis points.

A Reuters survey shows that about 55% of the economists surveyed, or 56 out of 101, expect that the interest rate hike in December will mark the end of the current tightening cycle, a figure that is basically unchanged from last month.However, 45 economists still expect that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least two more times, including more than half of the surveyed primary dealers, which is consistent with the expectations reflected in market pricing, and believe that the risks to the inflation outlook have not changed since the U.S. midterm elections. Changes in the political landscape are unlikely to quickly alleviate inflationary pressures.Despite market hopes that the nearly 9-month-long Middle East conflict could be resolved, leading to a drop of over 22% in crude oil futures prices from the late October peak, inflationary pressures still persist. A strong labor market, resilient economic growth, and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for nearly six years all indicate that further tightening of monetary policy is still necessary.Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tom Porcelli stated, "The Federal Reserve's decision-making depends on the upcoming inflation data, which will prompt it to raise rates again. In fact, the Federal Reserve has every reason to raise rates at the October meeting."

According to the official account of the Linyi City Media Center, the Linyi authorities have issued a risk warning, exposing two major illegal financial scams: "Global Securities Exchange" and "Savings Project" APP.Among them, the "Global Securities Exchange" project promotes high returns, enticing the public to invest in and purchase virtual currencies. Participants are advised to withdraw as soon as possible to prevent losses. The notice issued by the People's Bank of China and other departments regarding further prevention and handling of risks related to virtual currencies clearly states that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as legal tender.