ChainCatcher news, JPMorgan analysts expect that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in April and October 2025. By the end of 2025, the policy interest rate is expected to be increased to 1.0%. The Bank of Japan may raise rates twice to 1.5% in 2026. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims decreased last week, indicating that despite a cooling job market, the U.S. economy has avoided large-scale layoffs. The number of continuing unemployment claims reached its highest level in three years.Since the beginning of this year, labor market data has shown mixed signals, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as it balances employment and inflation targets.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 43.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 56.2%.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that he expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates to achieve a goal that neither restricts nor promotes economic activity.Goolsbee said, "Unless there is compelling evidence that the economy is overheating, I see no reason not to continue lowering the federal funds rate." "The pace of rate cuts depends on the outlook and conditions. But in my view, we are on a clear path that will lead to lower rates, closer to the neutral rate." He mentioned that his prediction for the neutral rate is close to the officials' median estimate, which is 2.9% as projected in September. Goolsbee noted that the overall situation in recent months has been that inflation has often been below expectations, but not significantly above the 2% target.

ChainCatcher news, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks said in a television interview with Latvian public broadcaster on Monday that the European Central Bank should lower interest rates next month. He stated, "Of course, there will be discussions, but I firmly believe that given the current state of the European economy, we must lower rates again in December." The European Central Bank has already cut rates three times and is expected to do so again next month. The PMI data released last Friday showed an unexpected contraction in the eurozone's private sector economy, with the market betting that the bank may further cut rates by 50 basis points. However, data expected to be released later this week is anticipated to show that the inflation rate in November will be above the European Central Bank's target of 2%.

ChainCatcher message, Greeks.live macro analyst Adam posted on platform X that this week is Thanksgiving, with economic events and data concentrated on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Thursday and Friday, and the recent performance of crypto-related U.S. stocks has been significant, showing a high correlation with crypto, so it’s worth paying close attention.Bitcoin is just one step away from 100,000 USD, needing just a final push. ETH also rebounded significantly last week, driving altcoins to rise across the board, with the crypto market's trend gradually shifting back from Meme to the main market. There was a slight pullback over the weekend, but the market's absorption capacity is very strong, with bulls being very aggressive in the spot bull market. The options market remains relatively stable, and large trades and market interest rates are worth monitoring.Currently, the implied volatility (IV) for major maturities is at a relatively low level, making it a good opportunity to position some mid-to-long-term options with decent cost-effectiveness. The crypto interest rate market, particularly Bitfinex, has been relatively stable recently, and it’s advisable to actively transact when suitable interest rate orders arise, especially during market movements.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed sharply different views on the theoretical neutral interest rate level, which is the interest rate that balances the Federal Reserve's various economic goals.Goolsbee emphasized that the Federal Reserve still needs to lower interest rates further to reach this level—he described this rate as "far below where we currently are."In contrast, Bowman stated, "We may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think." Will Compernolle of FHN Financial pointed out that given the range of neutral interest rates estimated anonymously by Federal Reserve officials in September's forecast was between 2.375% and 3.75%, such a divergence is not surprising.

ChainCatcher news, in this week's speech, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed starkly different views on the theoretical neutral interest rate level. The neutral interest rate refers to the rate level that allows the Fed's various economic goals to be balanced.Goolsbee emphasized that the Fed still needs to lower interest rates further to reach this level—he described this rate as "far below where we currently are." Meanwhile, Bowman stated, "We may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think." Will Compernolle of FHN Financial pointed out that given the range of neutral interest rates estimated anonymously by Fed officials in September's forecast was between 2.375% and 3.75%, such a divergence is not surprising.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the scale and timing of interest rate cuts will depend on the upcoming data, economic outlook, and the balance of risks; the policy is not predetermined. The interest rate cuts so far are an important step in easing policy restrictions.

ChainCatcher news, ECB Vice President Guindos stated that the European Central Bank's interest rates will be further lowered, but due to escalating trade tensions and global conflicts, officials should not act hastily.Previously, the European Central Bank warned in its "Financial Stability Assessment" that trade now poses an additional threat to the economies of the 20 Eurozone countries. Guindos expressed confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target next year and dismissed claims that inflation would fall below this target. With less than four weeks until the last interest rate meeting of the year, investors expect the borrowing costs to be lowered for the fourth time since June. Although further easing of monetary policy seems possible in 2025, the pace and extent of rate cuts remain uncertain, and disputes among policymakers are increasing.

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Cointelegraph, a BBC investigation has revealed that influencer Logan Paul is accused of profiting from promoting cryptocurrencies without disclosing his financial interests. The BBC's investigation uncovered evidence linking Paul to an anonymous crypto wallet, obtained through transactions associated with Paul's public wallet.It is alleged that this anonymous wallet purchased the tokens before Paul promoted them to his 23 million YouTube followers and sold them for a profit after the price surged.Reportedly, influencer Logan Paul has promised to provide refunds to users of the allegedly fraudulent NFT project CryptoZoo, on the condition that they waive their right to sue him.

ChainCatcher news, according to a Reuters survey: Out of 106 analysts, 94 believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% in December. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, on the 20th, Hong Yixin, President and CEO of State Street Global Advisors, attended the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit and stated that this year the global stock market has recorded growth, inflation is slowing down, and central banks around the world are cutting interest rates. Therefore, looking ahead to 2025, the global economy is expected to continue its soft landing, and there is optimism about global economic growth.In addition, she expects that the profits of American technology companies will continue to rise. Although U.S. stocks are currently recording growth, there is still room for further increases in the future, so she is very optimistic about the U.S. stock market; she is also optimistic about European and emerging market stocks, as a weaker dollar is a favorable factor for emerging markets. At the same time, she anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month, but will lower its forecast for the number of rate cuts in 2025 to three times, with rates possibly dropping to 3.75% by the end of next year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged until December is 40.9%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 59.1%.The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 30.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 54.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 15.2%.

ChainCatcher news, Rumble CEO Chris Pavlovski expressed interest in adopting a Bitcoin funding strategy, leading to an increase in Rumble (RUM) stock price during Tuesday's afternoon trading session in the U.S.Pavlovski asked on X: "Should Rumble add Bitcoin to its balance sheet?" MicroStrategy (MSTR) CEO Michael Saylor replied: "Yes, I would love to discuss why and how with you."It is reported that Rumble's revenue for the third quarter was $25.1 million, a 39% increase compared to the same period last year. Its balance sheet shows cash and cash equivalents of $130.8 million. Year to date, the company's stock price has risen 26%, with a current market capitalization of approximately $1.6 billion.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, "The decision to cut interest rates is an acknowledgment of the growing confidence that the inflation rate is likely to reach the Federal Reserve's 2% target—this confidence is partly based on signs that the labor market and product market have been tending toward balance in recent months," said Kansas City Fed President George in remarks prepared for a speech to the Omaha Chamber of Commerce.He stated that while the progress toward returning to the 2% target means that now is an appropriate time to cut rates, "how much further rates will decline or what they will ultimately settle at remains to be seen." On the current issue of federal government spending, George indicated that because the Federal Reserve will fulfill its responsibility to keep inflation at the established 2% target, large fiscal deficits will not trigger inflation.However, this may mean that "interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period," George said, which is why the Federal Reserve must maintain its independence when formulating monetary policy.

ChainCatcher news, boosted by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, gold futures prices have risen. This precious metal has partially rebounded from a significant sell-off following the U.S. presidential election, increasing 3.9% from last Thursday's low.SP Angel analysts noted in a report that gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all saw gains during Monday's trading session, likely reflecting a weakening in dollar trading. Market focus is now shifting to the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in December. Given that President-elect Trump's protectionist policies have raised new inflation concerns, the market expects a 35% chance that there will be no interest rate cut at this meeting. SP Angel stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is a negative factor for gold, as higher rates typically diminish the appeal of non-yielding gold. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Deutsche Bank Asset Management analyst Johannes Müller stated in a webinar that the decline in inflation in the Eurozone next year should enable the European Central Bank to further cut interest rates.The chief economist of Deutsche Bank Asset Management mentioned that the company expects the European Central Bank to cut rates five more times, once in December, and then four more times before the third quarter of 2025. Deutsche Bank Asset Management predicts that the inflation rate will drop to 2.0% in 2025, down from 2.3% in 2024. However, due to strong wage growth and inflation in service prices, core inflation may still remain elevated.

ChainCatcher news, Pepperstone analyst Wu Dilin stated that the yen will remain under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on interest rate hikes and the country's negative real interest rates. He also mentioned that as the market gradually digests the possibility of Trump's re-election, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and debt issues may once again become key driving factors for the dollar's movement, which could alleviate some of the pressure on the yen.