ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 96.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.2%. By March, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.5%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 23.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.7%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Gregory Faranello, the head of interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, stated that this is a very reliable report that supports the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to skip this month's meeting and possibly more meetings.At the transition between two administrations, this is also an important figure. The focus now shifts to inflation. With the new administration taking office, higher inflation data and a strong labor market will increase calls for interest rate hikes.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, if confirmed by the Senate, Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary chosen by President-elect Donald Trump, will resign from his position at Key Square Group and sell his stake in the partnership to avoid conflicts of interest.Scott Bessent disclosed assets worth at least $521 million in his personal financial disclosure, listing nine top-tier assets, all linked to his hedge fund. These include two batches of U.S. Treasury bonds, two Invesco funds, and open positions in foreign currency exchange rates. He also listed a personal investment of no more than $500,000, which is linked to the price of Bitcoin through an iShares exchange-traded fund. Like the assets he holds through Key Square Capital, Bessent will divest from the cryptocurrency-based ETF. According to his disclosure, Key Square Group will close at the end of March.Some of Scott Bessent's potential conflicts of interest will take longer to resolve. He has invested at least $250,000 in three funds that allow him to withdraw no more than 25% of his holdings each quarter. He will not be able to fully withdraw his holdings until the end of September, which is much longer than the usual 90-day disclosure window. Scott Bessent stated that he will avoid specific decisions that could have a predictable impact on stock values. Scott Bessent also listed residential real estate in the Bahamas valued at at least $5 million, as well as a collection of art and antiques worth at least $1 million.

ChainCatcher news, after the non-farm payroll data was released, Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, down from the previous forecast of 75 basis points. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bank of America Global Research states that we believe the rate-cutting cycle has ended; our baseline assumption is that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period; however, we believe the risk of the next move leans towards an interest rate hike.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, Wells Fargo stated that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March is becoming increasingly unlikely.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that if economic conditions remain stable, inflation does not rise, and full employment is achieved, then interest rates should decrease. If current expectations are realized, interest rates will significantly drop in 12 to 18 months.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan stated that given the latest non-farm payroll data (strong), the Federal Reserve is expected to make the next interest rate cut in June, whereas the previous forecast was for March.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Financial Times commented on the non-farm data, stating that the U.S. created 256,000 jobs in December, exceeding expectations and supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment figures on Friday that surpassed the 160,000 expected by Reuters analysts and were also higher than the revised 212,000 for November. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, down from 4.2% in November. As the December employment data was released, a sell-off occurred in the global government bond market, partly due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will only make modest interest rate cuts in 2025.

ChainCatcher message, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once in 2025, with the earliest cut in June.

ChainCatcher news, a Federal Reserve official stated that he believes the decision to cut interest rates last month was a close call, as the current economic outlook seems different from when the Fed began lowering rates four months ago. St. Louis Fed President Bullard mentioned that by the time of last month's meeting, the risks of inflation hovering between 2.5% and 3% had increased.Therefore, he believes that caution should be exercised in further rate cuts. Bullard had previously hinted that he supported the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points in September. "Since last September, the situation has changed, economic data has been stronger, and inflation numbers have exceeded expectations. So I have changed my assessment of the risks; future rate cuts must be gradual and more gradual than I envisioned in September."Bullard stated that the job market is in good shape and needs to be closely monitored, but there are "still inflation issues" in the Fed's mandate. Due to his estimate of the neutral rate being slightly higher than most of his colleagues, the currently set rate may be slightly below the appropriate limit.

ChainCatcher message, financial website Forexlive analyst Justin Low: The trend in the U.S. labor market is clear; after a strong rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been softening. The U.S. economy has remained quite resilient, and the labor market has proven this—despite the slowdown. As the Federal Reserve seeks to pause the interest rate cut cycle, this will be a key area to watch in the coming months.If the labor market conditions align with inflation data, it will validate the Fed's outlook of remaining cautious while waiting for the effects of Trump's policies to take hold. However, if the data worsens, there will be reason to worry about whether the Fed will cut rates again at the beginning of the new year. Before the weekend arrives, price fluctuations (if any) will determine broader market sentiment. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January is 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.9%. By March, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 57.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 2.6%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Collins stated that the current outlook requires a gradual and patient approach to interest rate cuts, supporting the rate cut in December last year, but this is a critical decision.The Federal Reserve is not following a predetermined path; the policy is in good shape. The current economic outlook is consistent with the Federal Reserve's predictions from December, expecting inflation to be higher than recent levels. The rate cut in December provided assurance for the labor market, and the economy is gradually and asynchronously returning to the 2% inflation target.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Philadelphia Fed President Harker stated on Thursday that he still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the policy path is shrouded in considerable uncertainty.Harker said, "I still believe we are on a path of declining policy rates. I do not intend to deviate from this path or turn back. The exact pace of moving forward will depend entirely on the new data received." Harker does not have a vote this year. In his speech, he stated, "The overall fundamentals of our economy remain strong," but even so, "we are still in a very unstable period," which limits guidance on the future policy path.Harker pointed out that bringing inflation back to the 2% target will take longer than expected. He also noted that the labor market has stabilized and remains healthy, but there are increasing signs that low-income individuals are facing greater pressure, which concerns him.

ChainCatcher news, according to the financial website Marketwatch, the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes show that nearly all policymakers believe the upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased, after which U.S. stocks fluctuated between slight gains and losses.The latest meeting minutes indicate that Federal Reserve officials did not discuss the possibility of raising interest rates in December. Officials believe that if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged or ease monetary policy at a slower pace.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, the Trump administration's radical tariff policy may lead to further inflation, but economic models indicate that this will be a one-time increase in price levels rather than a long-term inflationary spiral.Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson said this might persuade the Federal Reserve to be more patient in addressing inflation caused by tariffs, especially in the context of a continuing slowdown in the labor market. His view supports Wells Fargo's baseline expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three more times this year, each by 25 basis points.However, Bryson warned that if the trade war becomes more protracted, such as through a series of tit-for-tat international reprisals, the Federal Reserve may have to take the inflationary consequences more seriously.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes that interest rates will not return to the zero interest rate range anytime soon.