ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Lloyds Bank of the UK believes that the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, to be released next Wednesday, are not expected to change the market's expectation of keeping interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, with rate adjustments more likely to occur in September.The Fed's dot plot still anticipates two rate cuts this year, but there are significant differences among policymakers, ranging from three rate cuts to keeping rates unchanged.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, Citic Securities research report states, "In June 2025, the number of new non-farm jobs in the U.S. exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was lower than expected. However, this non-farm report actually shows that the U.S. job market continues to weaken. We still believe that the 'buffer' in the U.S. job market is limited, and the continued weakening of the job market may accelerate the rise in the unemployment rate.However, the 4.1% unemployment rate in June gives Powell more 'reasons' to observe the impact of summer tariffs on inflation. We maintain our previous view that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again at the September meeting."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent stated that the market is signaling a Federal Reserve rate cut.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that we are currently at a very high level of real interest rates. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at this meeting, the rate cut in September may be larger.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, strategist Sima Shah from Xin'an Asset Management stated that after today's non-farm payroll report was released, she believes the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until the end of 2025. "Some Federal Reserve speakers have already indicated that they prefer to cut rates as early as this month. Today's data shows that employment numbers exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate has decreased, and initial jobless claims have fallen, which completely eliminates their rationale for believing a rate cut is imminent and suggests that there is no urgency for the Federal Reserve to provide supportive policies."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, the U.S. job market showed robust performance in June, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, higher than the revised 144,000 in May; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, while economists had previously expected a slight rise to 4.3%. The report indicates that the labor market remains stable, which may delay the Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts until September.Although job growth exceeded expectations, the pace is slowing, primarily reflecting weak hiring activity. Layoffs remain relatively low, as employers generally hoarded workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic due to difficulties in finding labor. Several indicators, including initial jobless claims and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, show that the labor market is showing signs of fatigue after a strong performance that protected the economy from recession. At that time, the Federal Reserve significantly tightened monetary policy to combat high inflation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, analyst Joseph Richter stated that the market may react to the decline in the unemployment rate, but this is only part of the overall situation. However, considering that the U-3 unemployment rate is crucial for the Federal Reserve's response function, its decline may rule out rate cuts in July or even September. This is consistent with our view on the trend for the fourth quarter.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 147,000 in June, which not only exceeds the 144,000 new jobs in May but also significantly surpasses the general prediction of 110,000 by economists, indicating that the U.S. labor market has successfully resisted the uncertainties brought by the Trump administration's trade and immigration policies.This unexpectedly strong data will alleviate the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, despite Trump’s repeated public calls for the bank to take action. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated this week that a rate cut in July "is still under consideration," which seems to reverse his previous stance of "keeping rates unchanged until fall."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the non-farm payroll report was released, interest rate futures traders abandoned bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated on Tuesday night that he believes the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September or "earlier," as Trump's tariffs have so far only triggered mild inflation."I think the standard is that tariffs do not cause inflation. If they are to follow that standard, I think they might take action earlier, but certainly before September," Mnuchin said, "I guess this tariff imbalance syndrome might even occur at the Federal Reserve."As Mnuchin made these remarks, Trump intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve and Powell, calling for interest rates to be cut by as much as 3 percentage points.

ChainCatcher news, Min Joo Kang, a senior economist at ING, stated that the Bank of Korea is expected to delay its next interest rate cut until October to address the recent rise in domestic housing prices and household debt.Kang pointed out that the Bank of Korea can act cautiously, focusing more on financial stability, and that inflation is expected to remain near the central bank's 2% target in the foreseeable future. The country's overall consumer inflation in June rose 2.2% year-on-year, slightly above the market consensus expectation of 2.1%. The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, has remained stable at 2.0% for the second consecutive month.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 78.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.2%.The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 8.9%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 72.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 18.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent stated that the tariffs have not prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which is "a bit confusing."(When asked if he thinks Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will cut rates before the fall) "I think they might take action earlier than the fall, but they will definitely cut rates by September at the latest."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, at an ECB event held in Portugal, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that if it weren't for President Trump's tariff policy, the Fed would have started cutting interest rates by 2025, and would currently be adopting a more accommodative monetary policy.When asked whether the uncertainty caused by the current U.S. government's tariff system has led the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, Powell answered affirmatively, adding that due to the impact of tariffs, nearly all predictions for U.S. inflation rates have risen significantly.Powell acknowledged that despite increasing pressure from the U.S. government, the Fed is still in a mode of maintaining interest rates. He also stated that given the current instability of the economic outlook, the Fed is still monitoring the situation to gather more information.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the vast majority of Federal Reserve committee members expect to cut interest rates later this year.It cannot be said that considering a rate cut in July is too early. No meeting (action) can be ruled out, as it will depend on the data.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 data reports, ECB board member Müller stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates in July; even in the more distant future, interest rates may not necessarily need to be significantly lowered.

ChainCatcher news, Morgan Stanley analysts stated in a research report that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the next two meetings remains low. The market's expectation for a rate cut in July has risen from 8% to 20%, while the expectation for a rate cut in September has increased from 60% to 90%.However, analysts noted that most Federal Reserve officials support Powell's cautious stance and are unlikely to quickly endorse a rate cut. Analysts expect the upcoming employment report to be relatively robust, with a slowdown in growth but no signs of cracks that would prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate action.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 20.2%.The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.3%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 18.8%.

ChainCatcher news, according to social media reports, U.S. President Trump stated: Powell and his entire committee should be ashamed for allowing such things to happen in America. Their job is one of the easiest yet most prestigious jobs in America, but they have failed and continue to fail. If they had done their job properly, our country could have saved trillions of dollars in interest costs. The committee just sits there and watches, so they are equally to blame. Our interest rates should be only 1%, or even better!

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs has moved the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline from December to September.