CICC: In extreme cases, the Federal Reserve may restart interest rate hikes in 2025

ChainCatcher message, CICC pointed out in the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the U.S. Economy": "Under the ordinary assumption scenario, we expect the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates, but the pace of rate cuts will slow down, and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will also be higher. In an extreme assumption scenario, the Federal Reserve's stance will turn 'hawkish' and restart rate hikes in 2025, as policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation rising back above 5%."

The article further states: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires the nominal policy rate to be above inflation (i.e., the real policy rate to be positive), this means that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025."