ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, after the last Federal Reserve interest rate decision, President Trump has repeatedly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. As concerns about Trump's trade agenda deepen, Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate cuts to alleviate economic pressure. In turn, the Federal Reserve is preparing for the price shocks that Trump's tariffs may trigger, which will delay any rate cuts even if the economy weakens.So far, Trump's anger towards the Federal Reserve has been relatively mild. Although he has been criticizing the Federal Reserve since it paused rate cuts last Thursday, he has not issued any direct threats.Trump has taken aggressive measures to strengthen his control over the government and reshape it according to his political will. A source close to the White House indicated that Trump may attempt to fire Powell. The source said, "I don't think Powell will leave voluntarily; Trump may try to fire him, but I also believe Powell is secure enough and impressive enough that he won't leave voluntarily."When asked whether the government believes it has the authority to fire Federal Reserve officials (after firing two Federal Trade Commission commissioners) and whether Trump still plans to let Powell complete his term, the White House stated that there was no new statement.

ChainCatcher news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated in an interview that he currently expects only one rate cut this year. This is lower than his previous expectation of two rate cuts. Bostic mentioned that he changed his forecast because he believes the process of inflation retreating this year will be "very bumpy." He also noted that businesses are beginning to expect inflation to rise. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Goolsbee emphasized in his latest speech that the Federal Reserve's commitment to the 2% inflation target is "rock solid," and stated that if market inflation expectations rise, the Federal Reserve will have to take action.Regarding the prospects for interest rate cuts, Goolsbee pointed out that an economic slowdown would become a reason for rate cuts, but if inflation exceeds tariff levels or expectations, the Federal Reserve would have to adjust its outlook. He warned that the longer the Federal Reserve waits, the more likely it is that rate cuts will need to be delayed, stating that "waiting may come at a cost."Goolsbee acknowledged that it is "not realistic" to understand interest rate trends at the moment, and indicated that the Federal Reserve needs to consider the impact of tariffs, upcoming tax cuts, and other factors. He emphasized that the unemployment rate and inflation do reflect the Federal Reserve's progress in achieving its dual mandate, while also noting that "the current economy remains very strong."

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: We are at a stage where we can either cut interest rates or maintain the current clearly tight policy stance.

ChainCatcher message, the Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that among 19 officials, 4 officials believe there should be no rate cuts in 2025 (1 in December), 4 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points in 2025, which means 1 rate cut (3 in December), 9 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025, which means 2 rate cuts (10 in December), 2 officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points in 2025, which means 3 rate cuts (3 in December), no officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points in 2025 (1 in December), and no officials believe there should be a cumulative rate cut of 125 basis points in 2025 (1 in December).

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, Lazard's Chief Market Strategist Temple said that due to inflation risks, Lazard still expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025.He stated that Lazard's view significantly differs from the market consensus, which generally anticipates three rate cuts this year. Temple said, "My view is not in line with the consensus because I expect that by 2025, U.S. tariffs will expand in scope and scale, driving up inflation."He mentioned that a renewed acceleration of inflation may not necessarily lead to rate hikes, but rising price pressures could prevent the Federal Reserve from easing policy in the face of rising unemployment.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Bastian Freitag, head of the German fixed income department at Rothschild Wealth Management, stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold this week, with the earliest window for the next rate cut in June.In a report, Freitag noted that inflation continues to stagnate above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and this sideways trend may persist. The punitive tariffs already imposed by the U.S. government and those that will still be imposed may continue to elevate prices. "Meanwhile, we have observed an increase in survey-based inflation expectations, which reduces the Fed's room for premature rate cuts," Freitag said. He expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in June, September, and the first quarter of 2026.

ChainCatcher news, institutional surveys show that interviewed analysts expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates two more times this year, and no longer anticipate that the bank's rates will fall below 2%.The monthly survey indicates that after six rate cuts so far, the European Central Bank is still likely to cut rates consecutively in April and June. However, unlike the previous survey, respondents expect the deposit rate (currently at 2.5%) to remain at 2% before the end of the survey period. In mid-February, a slight majority had anticipated that rates would eventually drop to 1.75% by March 2026. Governments across Europe plan to significantly increase defense investments, which could boost sluggish economic growth and exacerbate inflation.In addition to military spending, Germany also intends to increase spending by several hundred billion euros to renovate its aging infrastructure. Deutsche Bank economist Marco Wagner stated that this spending "will increase inflationary pressure by the end of 2026."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy interest rate unchanged this week, but Barclays economists warn that the impact of tariff shocks may be more severe than indicated in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). They stated in a research report: "We believe that the risks this year tend to delay interest rate cuts." Barclays expects the Fed's SEP to show rising inflation and unemployment rate expectations, along with a decline in GDP growth rate, but Barclays economists anticipate that the extent of GDP slowdown and inflation increase will be greater than indicated in the SEP. They added: "Although we expect the SEP to show that the benchmark interest rate will be lowered once this year, we still believe that the committee will ultimately cut rates twice this year in June and September, each by 25 basis points."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Deutsche Bank's research department expects that the Bank of England will cut interest rates four more times in 2025, bringing the rate down to 3.50%.However, the bank's economist Sanjay Raja stated in a report that the Bank of England is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.50% in its next decision on March 20.Raja said, "In our view, a 'gradual and cautious' approach is not conducive to consecutive rate cuts—especially in the context of rising overall CPI."LSEG data shows that the market expects a 92% probability that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged in March, and that the Bank of England will cut rates two more times in 2025.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Barclays' latest forecast shows that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September this year, a revision from the previous expectation of only one rate cut in June. This change may reflect the market's further consideration of inflation and slowing economic growth.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Paul Eitelman, Chief Investment Strategist for North America at Russell Investments, stated that due to the robust U.S. economy, the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to occur before May or June."We believe that the U.S. economic fundamentals are solid amid extreme uncertainty in policies faced by households, businesses, investors, and the Federal Reserve." Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has clearly indicated that he will wait for more clear information before cutting rates again, "which sets the stage for the next rate cut in May or June." Eitelman noted that macro fundamentals show resilient economic growth and easing inflation, supporting the baseline scenario of two to three rate cuts later this year.

ChainCatcher news, CICC's research report states that the U.S. core and total CPI inflation both fell in February, both below market expectations.From a breakdown perspective, oil prices and airfare prices have significantly cooled, reflecting weakened economic demand. Overall, rent remains moderate, and the increase in core commodity prices has slowed. Looking ahead, CICC believes that the slowdown in demand is conducive to curbing inflation, and the real estate and labor markets may not become sources of inflation by 2025. However, tariffs may push up short-term price levels, enhancing the stickiness of inflation. The Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates and will wait for clarity on tariff policies before taking action. CICC maintains its previous judgment that the next rate cut may have to wait until the third quarter.

ChainCatcher message, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 98%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, traders have increased their bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. U.S. short-term interest rate futures narrowed earlier losses after the CPI report, and traders still expect the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in June.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, there are 8 days left until the next FOMC meeting (interest rate decision to be announced on March 20 at 2 AM Beijing time). The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 96%.The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by May is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is 38.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 60.2%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Standard Chartered Bank's Global Head of G10 Foreign Exchange Research and North American Macro Strategy, Steven Englander, stated that despite the slowdown in economic growth, market concerns about a U.S. economic recession may be overstated. Although high interest rates and government spending issues continue to raise worries, he believes that economic data does not fully support the most pessimistic scenarios.Englander pointed out that in the coming months, falling energy prices and improved weather conditions may boost consumer spending, thereby supporting economic growth. Englander expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, in the second and third quarters, respectively. However, due to ongoing fiscal policy support for government spending, the likelihood of further rate cuts is low. In contrast, given stable inflation and wage growth, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates twice, which would allow the yen to perform better than other major currencies.The recent wave of U.S. tariffs may push up inflation, but the impact is manageable. Englander believes that although tariffs may lead to price increases, the overall impact will still be within a controllable range. He also predicts that the U.S. government will use fiscal policy to support economic growth, which may strengthen the dollar in the second half of the year.

ChainCatcher news, institutional analysis indicates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates at next week's policy meeting, but if concerns about an economic recession triggered by the trade war worsen and materialize, a series of rapid rate cuts may begin in June. At least in the futures market, an increasing number of contracts are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in June, July, and October. This trend emerged after U.S. President Trump’s comments about a "transition period" over the weekend, as he expressed concerns about tariffs imposed by multiple countries. Due to fears that his remarks signal an impending economic recession, U.S. stocks and Treasury yields also fell on Monday."Although it appears calm on the surface, if the labor or financial markets begin to slide before the Federal Reserve has a chance to assess the tariffs and the overall impact of Trump's agenda on inflation, (Federal Reserve policymakers) are increasingly concerned about the rising risks of a dual mandate and their ability to withstand pressure from President Trump to cut rates," wrote Tim Duy, Chief U.S. Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, in a note. "A slow-reacting Federal Reserve will incur the wrath of the Trump administration."